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'Volatile' GCSE results expected after exam changes GCSE grades rise, but sharp fall in English
(about 9 hours later)
Schools in England are braced for "volatile" GCSE results, following significant changes to the exam system. There has been a sharp fall in English GCSE grades, but on average across all GCSE subjects this year's results show a slight rise in A* to C grades.
Hundreds of thousands of teenagers in England, Wales and Northern Ireland will be receiving their GCSE results. Hundreds of thousands of pupils in England, Wales and Northern Ireland have been receiving their GCSE results.
But England's results are expected to show the impact of a shift to final exams rather than modular units. Exam officials revealed that 68.8% of entries scored A*-C, up 0.7 percentage points on last summer.
The exam regulator Ofqual has warned that schools could face "variability" in their results compared with last year. There have been warnings of "volatility" in results following major changes to the exam system.
Head teachers' leader Brian Lightman said such frequent changes to the exam system made comparing results with previous years "less and less meaningful". Andrew Hall, head of the AQA exam board, said the most significant impact on this year's results has been the big fall in schools entering younger pupils to take exams a year early.
There have been suggestions that the overall average grades could still rise this year - because there has been a big drop in the number of pupils entering exams a year early. 'Volatility'
Last year, results fell slightly, with 68.1% achieving A* to C grades. The fall was attributed to soaring numbers of pupils taking exams early. With fewer young exam candidates, there was a sharp improvement in maths results where the percentage achieving A* to C grades rose by 4.8 percentage points to 62.4%.
'Shocks in store' This is the first year of results following the switch to a greater emphasis on exams at the end of two years, rather than coursework and modular units.
But there are predictions that even if the overall average is stable or rising, there will be big fluctuations for individual schools, which could create some unexpected results for pupils. The results in English seem to have been most affected, with the number of A*-C grades down 1.9 percentage points to 61.7%. This could also have been influenced by the removal of some teacher assessment in this subject.
This year's results will reveal the outcome of a much greater emphasis on exams at the end of the two-year course and a reduction in coursework and modular units. Michael Turner, director general of the Joint Council for Qualifications, said although the overall results were "relatively stable", individual schools and colleges could see "volatility in their results".
There have also been changes to how English and geography are assessed, which could make exam grades less predictable, with some schools benefiting while others face less good news. Glenys Stacey, chief executive of the Ofqual exam regulator, has also warned that changes in the exam system could hit individual schools in different ways.
Schools Reform Minister Nick Gibb said changes were necessary to raise standards and to give students an "in-depth understanding".
"It will take many years to ensure that we have an education system which is on a par with the best in the world so our young people can compete in what is a very competitive global jobs market," said Mr Gibb.
Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment at Buckingham University, warned of "shocks in store" for some schools, depending on "how much they relied on gaming the old system".Alan Smithers, director of the Centre for Education and Employment at Buckingham University, warned of "shocks in store" for some schools, depending on "how much they relied on gaming the old system".
But despite such upheavals, the overall grades are not expected to dip substantially and could rise. A change in the school league tables has discouraged schools from multiple exam entries - and as a result there are 300,000 fewer early entries this year.
Older pupils would be expected to achieve slightly higher results.
Widening gapWidening gap
Another major change this year is the widening gap between the type of GCSEs taken by pupils in England and those in Northern Ireland and Wales.Another major change this year is the widening gap between the type of GCSEs taken by pupils in England and those in Northern Ireland and Wales.
The reforms to GCSE, such as the switch to linear, non-modular courses, has applied only to England. Although the overall GCSE figures will include England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the exams are increasingly dissimilar. The reforms to GCSE, such as the switch to linear, non-modular courses, have applied only to England. Although the overall GCSE figures include England, Wales and Northern Ireland, the exams are increasingly dissimilar.
"All of this piecemeal change to GCSE means that is incredibly difficult for schools to forecast what grades students might expect to achieve, or indeed to compare the school's results with previous years. Consequently the statistical trends are becoming less and less meaningful," said Brian Lightman, of the Association of School and College Leaders. "All of this piecemeal change to GCSE means that is incredibly difficult for schools to forecast what grades students might expect to achieve, or indeed to compare the school's results with previous years," said Brian Lightman, of the Association of School and College Leaders.
"The fact of the matter is that young people are not statistics. They are individuals whose life chances depend on these results. They have worked extremely hard for these exams and been conscientiously supported by their teachers. I hope that their results do them justice." "Consequently the statistical trends are becoming less and less meaningful.
Chris Keates, leader of the NASUWT teachers' union, says the results to be published on Thursday are a "reflection of the hard work put in by pupils and teachers who have been forced to cope with a totally unnecessary upheaval in the GCSE qualification system". "Young people are not statistics. They are individuals whose life chances depend on these results. They have worked extremely hard for these exams and been conscientiously supported by their teachers. I hope that their results do them justice."
Chris Keates, leader of the NASUWT teachers' union, says the results are a "reflection of the hard work put in by pupils and teachers who have been forced to cope with a totally unnecessary upheaval in the GCSE qualification system".
There were calls for more stability in the exam system from Nansi Ellis, assistant general secretary of the ATL teachers' union.There were calls for more stability in the exam system from Nansi Ellis, assistant general secretary of the ATL teachers' union.
"Continual piecemeal and untested tinkering with exams is not in the interests of young people or the economy and needs to end." she said."Continual piecemeal and untested tinkering with exams is not in the interests of young people or the economy and needs to end." she said.
Have you received your GCSE results today? Has your child received their results? Were you shocked by the results? Do you have any questions about what you should do next? Careers expert Julie Taylor from the National Careers Service will answer some of your questions. A selection will be answered on the BBC News website. Email haveyoursay@bbc.co.uk using the subject line "GCSE".