The Palestine problem will remain unsolved while the killing continues

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/aug/21/palestine-problem-killing-gaza-change

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The current war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is the third in six years. The Palestine issue is separate from the problems in Iraq and Syria, which are making the headlines today, but it continues to spread its poison.

Israel wants demilitarisation of Gaza; Hamas wants the blockade ended. Neither objective is realistic. There is no effective mediator. Both the Americans and the Egyptians regard Hamas as terrorists. America arms Israel and Egypt collaborates with Israel in imposing the blockade. It’s a wonder anybody talks to anybody. The Palestinians have approached the Swiss to mediate, but the Swiss don’t seem keen. Meanwhile, neither Israel nor Hamas is gaining anything by fighting. Eventually a ceasefire will stick and the war will peter out.

European foreign ministers have declared that the status quo in Gaza is not an option. That implies change. What change? Internally we see very little. Most Israelis have no contact with – and have little thought for – the Palestinians in the West Bank, let alone Gaza. That would change if there were another uprising, another intifada – people in Israel would get killed. It has already changed a bit as rocket attacks from Gaza have increased in range, though not in military effectiveness. So far the psychological effect has been to unite almost all Israelis behind the war, but long term, with the possibility of more accurate rockets, things might be different.

Externally we see quite a lot of change. The manmade earthquake that hit Gaza is floodlit by new media. With smartphone cameras everywhere, the horrors are now in your face. Last time round most comments were painfully balanced; this time lip service is still paid to Israel’s need for security, but even President Obama has described some Israeli actions as indefensible. There have been demonstrations across the world against Israel’s actions.

This will have consequences. Since 2012, Palestine has been recognised by the UN as a non-member observer state. It will probably now seek to put Israel in the dock in the international criminal court. That won’t be easy, given American opposition and uncertain support from other security council members, including the UK, but it will not be a pleasant experience for Israel.

The boycott, divestment and sanctions (BDS) movement, which aims to bring non-violent pressure on Israel, has had some high-profile victories in the past year, with support from stars, academics, churches and even financiers – a big Dutch pension fund has withdrawn its investments from five Israeli banks. Military cooperation with Israel has come under review, although America has continued to supply weapons – even during the fighting. Activists closed down a factory near Birmingham belonging to Elbit Systems, which makes drones used by the IDF in Gaza, and Australian activists briefly occupied another Elbit factory near Melbourne.

Comparisons of the Israeli occupation to apartheid in South Africa imply that international action can work against Israel as it did in South Africa. As yet there is little evidence of that. Israel is critically dependent on external support only in one respect: continued financial and military subsidy from the US, estimated at more than £1.81bn ($3bn) a year in normal times, increasing at times of crisis. That depends on Congress, which remains wholly loyal to Israel (more so than to the US, its critics claim). The US vote to approve a $225m package to restock Iron Dome, the missile defence system which intercepts most of the rockets fired from Gaza, was passed by 395 to eight, and even the eight have not openly criticised Israel.

In Israel, the peace camp has been sidelined and the majority support the use of force by the present government, if not something more extreme. But force will not solve the problem; only politics, diplomacy and compromise can do that. Killing Hamas commanders, and their wives and children, only sows dragon’s teeth.

At present all the players – Israel, Hamas, America and its allies, including the UK – find it impossible to envisage compromise. The outlook is for a ceasefire, followed by a year or two of low-intensity confrontation, followed by another war, followed by …