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Scottish independence debate – last chance to see Scottish independence debate – time for the second TV ding-dong
(34 minutes later)
This Monday evening the bell goes for round two: the second head-to-head debate between Scotland’s SNP first minister, Alex Salmond, and the man heading the Better Together campaign, former Labour chancellor Alistair Darling. It will be screened live throughout the UK – BBC1 in Scotland and BBC2 across the rest of the nations and regions.This Monday evening the bell goes for round two: the second head-to-head debate between Scotland’s SNP first minister, Alex Salmond, and the man heading the Better Together campaign, former Labour chancellor Alistair Darling. It will be screened live throughout the UK – BBC1 in Scotland and BBC2 across the rest of the nations and regions.
Round one was billed as Real Madrid v Wigan Athletic: the self-assured former economist Salmond, with two Scottish election trophies in the cabinet, versus former lawyer Darling, a man opponents believed had been an early beneficiary of charisma bypass surgery. But as the debate unfolded, it was the first minister who seemed unusually hesitant, and Darling, all pointing fingers and verbal aggression, who appeared to have swallowed the passion pills.“We fell for the oldest trick in the book,” admitted one of Salmond’s closest advisers. “We allowed the opposition to manage the expectation levels.” It didn’t help the yes cause that a Westminster SNP MP had gleefully predicted Darling would be sent home tae think again.Round one was billed as Real Madrid v Wigan Athletic: the self-assured former economist Salmond, with two Scottish election trophies in the cabinet, versus former lawyer Darling, a man opponents believed had been an early beneficiary of charisma bypass surgery. But as the debate unfolded, it was the first minister who seemed unusually hesitant, and Darling, all pointing fingers and verbal aggression, who appeared to have swallowed the passion pills.“We fell for the oldest trick in the book,” admitted one of Salmond’s closest advisers. “We allowed the opposition to manage the expectation levels.” It didn’t help the yes cause that a Westminster SNP MP had gleefully predicted Darling would be sent home tae think again.
The MP in question was expected to be spending more time with his family this week.The MP in question was expected to be spending more time with his family this week.
Since that contest, both camps have been examining the polling fallout forensically. Better Together thought it had administered a killer blow on the issue of a post-independence currency union – which all three unionist parties have rejected, but to which the first minister still adheres as “the best option for both Scotland and the rest of the UK”.Since that contest, both camps have been examining the polling fallout forensically. Better Together thought it had administered a killer blow on the issue of a post-independence currency union – which all three unionist parties have rejected, but to which the first minister still adheres as “the best option for both Scotland and the rest of the UK”.
Yet since the TV confrontation there has been a small rise in the yes vote in three separate polls. The no vote is still ahead, as it has been throughout, but the narrowing of the gap has intensified the wooing of the 12%-15% who are still self-declaring as undecided.Yet since the TV confrontation there has been a small rise in the yes vote in three separate polls. The no vote is still ahead, as it has been throughout, but the narrowing of the gap has intensified the wooing of the 12%-15% who are still self-declaring as undecided.
Backstage, both camps are preparing for a TV showdown whose importance has been magnified by the fact it is likely to be the last before the vote on 18 September, and will this time have a UK-wide audience.Backstage, both camps are preparing for a TV showdown whose importance has been magnified by the fact it is likely to be the last before the vote on 18 September, and will this time have a UK-wide audience.
Outriders on both sides have given us pointers as to the likely battle lines. Last week, the yes campaign fielded former Scottish Enterprise boss Crawford Beveridge, chair of the Fiscal Commission, who is charged with examining currency options. He suggested his colleagues, including two Nobel laureates, still believed a currency union to be the logical economic step, but if politics trumped economics, other options they had tested – including sterlingisation – were perfectly viable. Whereupon the no campaign wheeled out Jack Perry, one of Beveridge’s successors, who begged to differ on all counts.Outriders on both sides have given us pointers as to the likely battle lines. Last week, the yes campaign fielded former Scottish Enterprise boss Crawford Beveridge, chair of the Fiscal Commission, who is charged with examining currency options. He suggested his colleagues, including two Nobel laureates, still believed a currency union to be the logical economic step, but if politics trumped economics, other options they had tested – including sterlingisation – were perfectly viable. Whereupon the no campaign wheeled out Jack Perry, one of Beveridge’s successors, who begged to differ on all counts.
A second front has opened on the question of the NHS, an area yes considers important to female voters – who are more inclined than men to reject independence – but which no insists is irrelevant scaremongering. This is a tricky area for Darling to navigate, given that his Labour colleagues in England have been increasingly critical of the accelerated incursion of the private sector into NHS England, while his partners in Better Together, the Tories and Lib Dems, are the architects of the contentious policy in question. He is acutely aware, too, that a significant proportion of Scottish Labour voters (37%) are voting yes. He can’t afford to antagonise that section of his flock given Scottish Labour’s ambition to unseat the SNP at the next Scottish elections in 2016.A second front has opened on the question of the NHS, an area yes considers important to female voters – who are more inclined than men to reject independence – but which no insists is irrelevant scaremongering. This is a tricky area for Darling to navigate, given that his Labour colleagues in England have been increasingly critical of the accelerated incursion of the private sector into NHS England, while his partners in Better Together, the Tories and Lib Dems, are the architects of the contentious policy in question. He is acutely aware, too, that a significant proportion of Scottish Labour voters (37%) are voting yes. He can’t afford to antagonise that section of his flock given Scottish Labour’s ambition to unseat the SNP at the next Scottish elections in 2016.
And oil gushed back on to the agenda when businessman Sir Ian Wood suggested there was less of the black stuff than the Scottish government thought, while the first minister drily noted that his was the only country where oil reserves are apparently a blight.And oil gushed back on to the agenda when businessman Sir Ian Wood suggested there was less of the black stuff than the Scottish government thought, while the first minister drily noted that his was the only country where oil reserves are apparently a blight.
Salmond’s difficulties, if he can neutralise the currency question, are more tonal. Although considerably more popular than his opponents in Scottish politics, his personality is polarising. He has to appear confident but not arrogant. Sincere but not smug.Salmond’s difficulties, if he can neutralise the currency question, are more tonal. Although considerably more popular than his opponents in Scottish politics, his personality is polarising. He has to appear confident but not arrogant. Sincere but not smug.
Neither man lacks advice – much of it unsolicited – and Monday’s contest is likely to be “a game of four halves”, covering the economy, health and welfare, international affairs and post-poll scenarios. And unlike the last ill-tempered affair, there will be a “protected minute” where each man can answer the other without interruption. Sixty seconds can be a long time in politics.Neither man lacks advice – much of it unsolicited – and Monday’s contest is likely to be “a game of four halves”, covering the economy, health and welfare, international affairs and post-poll scenarios. And unlike the last ill-tempered affair, there will be a “protected minute” where each man can answer the other without interruption. Sixty seconds can be a long time in politics.