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| Scotland debate: bruising exchange pits believer against establishment | Scotland debate: bruising exchange pits believer against establishment |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| For the past decade, Scottish politics has revolved around one man. Alex Salmond is the political face of Scotland, a rather thinner and older face now than before, perhaps, but still its main man in every sense. | For the past decade, Scottish politics has revolved around one man. Alex Salmond is the political face of Scotland, a rather thinner and older face now than before, perhaps, but still its main man in every sense. |
| The independence referendum would not be taking place without Salmond's achievement of persuading Scots to vote twice for his party in such large numbers. If it was not for Salmond, BBC2 would surely have been rerunning a Richard Attenborough movie , not a 90-minute debate about Scotland and the union. | |
| Yet the debates and the referendum campaign are also very much about the first minister himself. The question on the ballot paper next month asks if Scotland should be an independent country. But a weighty subtext is whether Scotland should be the kind of independent country Salmond himself is offering. | Yet the debates and the referendum campaign are also very much about the first minister himself. The question on the ballot paper next month asks if Scotland should be an independent country. But a weighty subtext is whether Scotland should be the kind of independent country Salmond himself is offering. |
| There has been some questioning of that just lately – more than many would have expected a year ago. A lacklustre performance in the first debate with Alistair Darling at the start of the month took gas out of Salmond's tank too. But Monday night was a different story. | There has been some questioning of that just lately – more than many would have expected a year ago. A lacklustre performance in the first debate with Alistair Darling at the start of the month took gas out of Salmond's tank too. But Monday night was a different story. |
| From the moment that he stepped out from behind his lectern to begin his introductory remarks, it was clear that Salmond was up for the fight and happy to put himself on the line. It was the kind of contest that the late Robin Cook liked to call "war to the knife". | From the moment that he stepped out from behind his lectern to begin his introductory remarks, it was clear that Salmond was up for the fight and happy to put himself on the line. It was the kind of contest that the late Robin Cook liked to call "war to the knife". |
| Salmond's instant reward came in the shape of the Guardian-ICM snap poll of Scottish debate-watchers. This time, Salmond scored an emphatic win, by a 71%-29% margin, though whether this was a verdict on his combative debating skills or on his case for independence will only become clearer over the last three weeks of the campaign. | Salmond's instant reward came in the shape of the Guardian-ICM snap poll of Scottish debate-watchers. This time, Salmond scored an emphatic win, by a 71%-29% margin, though whether this was a verdict on his combative debating skills or on his case for independence will only become clearer over the last three weeks of the campaign. |
| Darling by contrast was focused, critical and nitty-gritty. Salmond's trustworthiness was in his sights from the very start. Darling's performance was more nervy and it was a rougher encounter, the kind of event at which Salmond excels. The usual pieties about the referendum campaign – that it has all been very civilised and respectful – seemed a long way away. | Darling by contrast was focused, critical and nitty-gritty. Salmond's trustworthiness was in his sights from the very start. Darling's performance was more nervy and it was a rougher encounter, the kind of event at which Salmond excels. The usual pieties about the referendum campaign – that it has all been very civilised and respectful – seemed a long way away. |
| Personal stakes | Personal stakes |
| Salmond has had much more at stake in the two TV debates. Not only did he have to move public opinion substantially in his direction – postal votes go out from today so this really matters – and to do so on a bigger scale than in the first debate. Salmond also had to sell his vision of an independent Scotland with, in all probability, him as its first leader. | |
| For Darling, by contrast, the personal stakes were lower. If Scots vote no on 18 September, they would certainly be taking Darling's advice about their national future. But they would not be investing in Darling himself as their national leader. | For Darling, by contrast, the personal stakes were lower. If Scots vote no on 18 September, they would certainly be taking Darling's advice about their national future. But they would not be investing in Darling himself as their national leader. |
| Darling's main job was to prevent Salmond from changing the terms of the rest of the campaign. That was why Darling just kept jabbing away at Salmond's claims about things such as the currency and the oil revenues. It is a long-term strategy and he scored some hits. It may well win the race in the end, in spite of the snap verdict in Salmond's favour. | |
| Yet if he pulls off a sensational win next month, or even comes away with a very close defeat, then Monday night's debate will mark one of the legendary moments in Salmond's roller-coaster career. | Yet if he pulls off a sensational win next month, or even comes away with a very close defeat, then Monday night's debate will mark one of the legendary moments in Salmond's roller-coaster career. |
| With the arguable exception of Margaret Thatcher, modern Scotland's unifying hate figure, whom Salmond took care to name-check inside the first minute, no one has done more to propel the Scottish National party into government and perhaps to propel Scotland to the brink of independence. | With the arguable exception of Margaret Thatcher, modern Scotland's unifying hate figure, whom Salmond took care to name-check inside the first minute, no one has done more to propel the Scottish National party into government and perhaps to propel Scotland to the brink of independence. |
| The independence campaign has been the biggest test of Salmond's career. So far, it is a test he has seemed to be losing judging by the message of the polls, albeit with many consolations to sugar the pill. | The independence campaign has been the biggest test of Salmond's career. So far, it is a test he has seemed to be losing judging by the message of the polls, albeit with many consolations to sugar the pill. |
| The Guardian poll, for example, will be a huge relief to Salmond's immediate camp. But it will not taste sweet unless the voting intention polls also start moving his way. | The Guardian poll, for example, will be a huge relief to Salmond's immediate camp. But it will not taste sweet unless the voting intention polls also start moving his way. |
| Salmond's personal ratings as first minister remain high – enviably better than those of almost all his rivals north or south of the border. But his reputation has taken some knocks during the campaign, particularly when he has struggled to explain unclear issues such as what an independent Scotland's currency would be or its chances of a smooth accession to the European Union. | Salmond's personal ratings as first minister remain high – enviably better than those of almost all his rivals north or south of the border. But his reputation has taken some knocks during the campaign, particularly when he has struggled to explain unclear issues such as what an independent Scotland's currency would be or its chances of a smooth accession to the European Union. |
| Polarising pugnacity | Polarising pugnacity |
| The pugnacity and even downright cockiness – the latter very much on display last night — that has been such a strength in earlier political contests may have got Salmond out of a tight corner, But it may now also be beginning to polarise opinion against him and to pall even among some supporters. | The pugnacity and even downright cockiness – the latter very much on display last night — that has been such a strength in earlier political contests may have got Salmond out of a tight corner, But it may now also be beginning to polarise opinion against him and to pall even among some supporters. |
| That pugnacity was unmistakable . This was not an occasion for faint hearts. Yet there have been genuine expressions of doubt about Salmond's style and personality recently, even in SNP circles. But Salmond has proved himself a great pinch hitter in the past and may yet do so again on the biggest stage of his career. | |
| Two polls this month have turned the spotlight on this question. A YouGov poll after the first debate found only 57% of yes voters thought Salmond was the right man to be leading the campaign. Meanwhile a Panelbase poll this month confirmed that Salmond polls much better among men (58% trust) than women (46%), and women under the age of 34 in particular (43%). Older men are another relative weakness (51%). | Two polls this month have turned the spotlight on this question. A YouGov poll after the first debate found only 57% of yes voters thought Salmond was the right man to be leading the campaign. Meanwhile a Panelbase poll this month confirmed that Salmond polls much better among men (58% trust) than women (46%), and women under the age of 34 in particular (43%). Older men are another relative weakness (51%). |
| Yet while there is no doubt how much is riding on the campaign, and thus on the debates, it is also important to remember that TV debates rarely shift opinion very much. | Yet while there is no doubt how much is riding on the campaign, and thus on the debates, it is also important to remember that TV debates rarely shift opinion very much. |
| When Alistair Cooke watched one of the famous Kennedy-Nixon debates in 1960 – the first and most famous of their kind – he wrote a conclusion for the Guardian which has stood the test of time pretty well. "The most an objective reporter can do," Cooke wrote, "is to say that he saw it, in the company of other more or less attentive people, and that nothing happening on the screen converted the personal preference of any one of them." | When Alistair Cooke watched one of the famous Kennedy-Nixon debates in 1960 – the first and most famous of their kind – he wrote a conclusion for the Guardian which has stood the test of time pretty well. "The most an objective reporter can do," Cooke wrote, "is to say that he saw it, in the company of other more or less attentive people, and that nothing happening on the screen converted the personal preference of any one of them." |
| That was probably true in Glasgow on Monday night too. The truth is that voters mostly see what they want to see in these head-to-head contests. But televised debates test the timber of the arguments and their proponents. | That was probably true in Glasgow on Monday night too. The truth is that voters mostly see what they want to see in these head-to-head contests. But televised debates test the timber of the arguments and their proponents. |
| Whether that is good news for Salmond will be something that is tested to destruction in the coming days. | Whether that is good news for Salmond will be something that is tested to destruction in the coming days. |