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Belarus hopes to benefit as host of Ukraine-Russia talks Belarus hopes to benefit as host of Ukraine-Russia talks
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While expectations of a breakthrough at Tuesday's meeting between the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, are extremely low, there is one person hoping to benefit from the talks: the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko.While expectations of a breakthrough at Tuesday's meeting between the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Petro Poroshenko, are extremely low, there is one person hoping to benefit from the talks: the Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko.
This summer marks the 20th year in office for Lukashenko, who has long had a reputation as Europe's last dictator. But the negotiations in Minsk, the first meeting between the two presidents since a 15-minute conversation in Normandy in June, will allow him to wear another hat, that of the peacemaker. This summer marks the 20th year in office for Lukashenko, who has long had a reputation as Europe's last dictator. But the negotiations in Minsk – the first meeting between the two presidents since a 15-minute conversation in Normandy in June – will allow him to wear another hat, that of the peacemaker.
Lukashenko's iron-fisted internal politics haven't changed but he has always remained open to overtures from the west despite his close ties to Russia, said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs and chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defence policy.Lukashenko's iron-fisted internal politics haven't changed but he has always remained open to overtures from the west despite his close ties to Russia, said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs and chairman of the Council on Foreign and Defence policy.
"The geopolitical situation has changed and now Lukashenko doesn't seem as awful as he did a year ago," Lukyanov said. Because of its relatively neutral position with regard to both Russia and Ukraine, Belarus has become essentially the only place where leaders from both sides can meet without losing face."The geopolitical situation has changed and now Lukashenko doesn't seem as awful as he did a year ago," Lukyanov said. Because of its relatively neutral position with regard to both Russia and Ukraine, Belarus has become essentially the only place where leaders from both sides can meet without losing face.
"Being a country that's connected with Russia but can preserve fairly independent politics makes Belarus an important player between Ukraine, the EU and Russia," Lukyanov said. "The EU is forced to relate to [Lukashenko] differently.""Being a country that's connected with Russia but can preserve fairly independent politics makes Belarus an important player between Ukraine, the EU and Russia," Lukyanov said. "The EU is forced to relate to [Lukashenko] differently."
Sergei Musiyenko, a Minsk-based analyst and former adviser to Lukashenko, said the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and other western leaders have previously tried – and failed – to set up a meeting between Russia and Ukraine. The Belarusian president was able to make it happen because of his good relations with Putin, Poroshenko and Kazakhstan's leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, all of whom he spoke with before the summit, Musiyenko said.Sergei Musiyenko, a Minsk-based analyst and former adviser to Lukashenko, said the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, and other western leaders have previously tried – and failed – to set up a meeting between Russia and Ukraine. The Belarusian president was able to make it happen because of his good relations with Putin, Poroshenko and Kazakhstan's leader, Nursultan Nazarbayev, all of whom he spoke with before the summit, Musiyenko said.
"I think our status as a union state with Russia played a role, as well as Belarus's ability to not offend Ukraine, to preserve neutrality," he added."I think our status as a union state with Russia played a role, as well as Belarus's ability to not offend Ukraine, to preserve neutrality," he added.
The Minsk talks were formally meant to iron out trade issues between Ukraine, the European Union and Russia's customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus, but the EU foreign affairs chief, Catherine Ashton, who will also attend, has called them an opportunity to solve the Ukraine conflict.The Minsk talks were formally meant to iron out trade issues between Ukraine, the European Union and Russia's customs union with Kazakhstan and Belarus, but the EU foreign affairs chief, Catherine Ashton, who will also attend, has called them an opportunity to solve the Ukraine conflict.
Poroshenko promised last week that he would call on Putin, whom Kiev has accused of sponsoring the rebels in eastern Ukraine, to withdraw these fighters.Poroshenko promised last week that he would call on Putin, whom Kiev has accused of sponsoring the rebels in eastern Ukraine, to withdraw these fighters.
After discussing the Minsk summit with Poroshenko in Kiev at the weekend, Merkel said it "certainly won't result in the breakthrough" needed to resolve the conflict but could be a chance to overcome quarrels over trade and natural gas. This week, Ukraine cut off sales of the many components it produces for Russia's defence industry, and it has previously threatened to block the transit of Russian natural gas through its territory, a flow that accounts for 15% of Europe's supply. After discussing the Minsk summit with Poroshenko in Kiev at the weekend, Merkel said it "certainly won't result in the breakthrough" needed to resolve the conflict but could be a chance to overcome quarrels over trade and natural gas.
Regardless of whether the negotiations produce results, they help "bring Minsk out of isolation," Lukyanov said. It's an opportune moment: In October, the EU will reconsider the expiring sanctions adopted against Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials after a 2010 crackdown on the opposition and could take the chance to ease them. This week Ukraine cut off sales of the many components it produces for Russia's defence industry, and has previously threatened to block the transit of Russian natural gas through its territory, a flow that accounts for 15% of Europe's supply.
Regardless of whether the negotiations produce results, they help "bring Minsk out of isolation", Lukyanov said. It's an opportune moment: in October, the EU will reconsider the expiring sanctions adopted against Lukashenko and other Belarusian officials after a 2010 crackdown on the opposition and could take the chance to ease them.
"It would be advantageous for the EU to soften sanctions against Belarus in light of the sanctions against Russia, to show that if a country's behaviour changes it can gradually return to favour," Lukyanov said."It would be advantageous for the EU to soften sanctions against Belarus in light of the sanctions against Russia, to show that if a country's behaviour changes it can gradually return to favour," Lukyanov said.
While Lukashenko stands to make political gains from the Ukraine crisis and the ensuing trade war between Russia and the west, his country's economy, which is 80% owned by the state, is benefitting as well. Belarus's agricultural sector is expected to earn an extra $500m (£300m) this year on increased exports to Russia after Putin placed an embargo this month on meat, dairy and produce from the EU, United States, Australia, Canada and Norway.While Lukashenko stands to make political gains from the Ukraine crisis and the ensuing trade war between Russia and the west, his country's economy, which is 80% owned by the state, is benefitting as well. Belarus's agricultural sector is expected to earn an extra $500m (£300m) this year on increased exports to Russia after Putin placed an embargo this month on meat, dairy and produce from the EU, United States, Australia, Canada and Norway.
European agribusiness's interest in Belarus is growing: on Monday, Poland's agriculture minister proposed creating joint enterprises in Belarus to make food products out of Polish raw ingredients and then export them to Russia.European agribusiness's interest in Belarus is growing: on Monday, Poland's agriculture minister proposed creating joint enterprises in Belarus to make food products out of Polish raw ingredients and then export them to Russia.
Belarus will also seek joint defence enterprises with Kiev "so that the intellectual engineering centres and designers in Ukraine don't go to waste" after their business with Russia ended, Lukashenko recently said.Belarus will also seek joint defence enterprises with Kiev "so that the intellectual engineering centres and designers in Ukraine don't go to waste" after their business with Russia ended, Lukashenko recently said.
According to Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute for CIS Countries in Moscow, the west is "gradually coming to terms with Belarus's model of government" out of political and economic necessity.According to Vladimir Zharikhin, deputy director of the Institute for CIS Countries in Moscow, the west is "gradually coming to terms with Belarus's model of government" out of political and economic necessity.
"It's a reality, you have to have dealings with it," Zharikhin said. "The 'last dictator in Europe' is useful for propaganda but not for business.""It's a reality, you have to have dealings with it," Zharikhin said. "The 'last dictator in Europe' is useful for propaganda but not for business."