Putin walks a tightrope as evidence mounts of Russians dying in Ukraine
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/05/vladimir-putin-russians-dying-ukraine Version 0 of 1. Hatred is not a tame beast. Once unleashed, it can be surprisingly hard to coax it back into its pen – even for a popular leader such as Vladimir Putin. The stunning reversal of the fortunes of the Ukrainian army in rebel-held regions in eastern Ukraine is not so stunning when one considers the months of hysterical, frothing-at-the-mouth propaganda against the Ukrainian government on Russian state television. If you’re going to label the government of a neighbouring country a bunch of baby-killing Nazis, it stands to reason that you will then fight said government. Or at least heavily arm the people who are fighting it. Anything else will make you look weak – and looking weak is the worst thing a Russian politician can do. Evidence that Russian soldiers have been dying in Ukraine is mounting. Someone shamefully stripping a paratrooper’s grave of its name plate doesn’t make that paratrooper any less dead, you see. Before the ceasefire announcement today, Russian state TV was forced to bat its collective eyelids and announce that all dead Russian soldiers were in Ukraine strictly on a voluntary basis. Right. It’s hard to tell if Russia planned on serious military confrontation in eastern Ukraine. A government that rules by signal is difficult to read at the best of times. Of course, some observers have long pointed out that a messy conflict that Kiev will not be allowed to win is what Putin wanted all along – call it his subtle form of discouragement against Ukraine joining Nato, if you will. Yet these recent, horrifying days have also made me wonder if the Kremlin had painted itself into a corner. Apparent confusion over how to address the mysterious paratrooper deaths certainly points to some level of internal contradiction. Public opinion polls, meanwhile, paint a picture of a nation that doesn’t want to fight. The number of Russians willing to support their government in an open war with Ukraine has slipped – 36% of Russians told Levada-Center “definitely yes” in March. That figure stands at just 13% today. On a personal level, many Muscovites I’ve spoken to are upset at what they see is a black-and-white portrayal of the conflict. They argue that westerners don’t pay enough attention to rightwing Ukrainian battalions and civilian suffering in eastern Ukraine. Many admit that their television is one-sided, but argue that Ukrainian television is not much better. What everyone seems to agree on is that the killing cannot continue – but few want any kind of capitulation to Poroshenko, whom they bizzarely see as both an evil mastermind and a bumbling fool. As far as public opinion goes, Putin is therefore walking a peculiar tightrope. Novorossiya must live on – but Russian soldiers had better not start dying en masse for it. A frozen conflict is, therefore, probably the best he can aim for. None of this is good news for a terrorised, cornered Ukraine. An ambivalent, postmodern standoff is likely to continue – with all of the ensuing tension, mistrust, economic fallout, and wearying subversion. But when the other option is the barbaric spectacle of Russians killing Ukrainians – what choice is there to begin with? |