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| Cease-Fire in Ukraine Holds, but Soldiers and Residents Doubt It Will Last | Cease-Fire in Ukraine Holds, but Soldiers and Residents Doubt It Will Last |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| LEBEDINSKOYE, Ukraine — The cease-fire between the Ukrainian government and Russian-backed separatists held across the embattled southeast with minor violations on Saturday, but soldiers and civilians who had been enduring life on the front lines just a day earlier doubted that the calm will prevail after five months of warfare. | LEBEDINSKOYE, Ukraine — The cease-fire between the Ukrainian government and Russian-backed separatists held across the embattled southeast with minor violations on Saturday, but soldiers and civilians who had been enduring life on the front lines just a day earlier doubted that the calm will prevail after five months of warfare. |
| In this bucolic southern hamlet, set in woods above the Azov Sea, one family expressed their lack of confidence by bundling children and belongings into their car and fleeing. Like others, they heard explosions in the distance and believed rumors that deadly barrages that killed a woman and two children here on Friday would soon resume. | In this bucolic southern hamlet, set in woods above the Azov Sea, one family expressed their lack of confidence by bundling children and belongings into their car and fleeing. Like others, they heard explosions in the distance and believed rumors that deadly barrages that killed a woman and two children here on Friday would soon resume. |
| On the main road, Ukrainian soldiers still manned checkpoints, checking cars and documents. A reconnaissance unit stopped on a hill to scout for enemy movement. | On the main road, Ukrainian soldiers still manned checkpoints, checking cars and documents. A reconnaissance unit stopped on a hill to scout for enemy movement. |
| “It’s too early to relax,” one soldier said. | “It’s too early to relax,” one soldier said. |
| Indeed, across Ukraine, the idea that the war might end had yet to gain traction. The fight against the “terrorists” has been the main daily obsession since it erupted through vast stretches of southeastern Ukraine in April. The fact that the government failed to release the details of the agreement announced by negotiators in Minsk, Belarus, on Friday only added to the worries. | Indeed, across Ukraine, the idea that the war might end had yet to gain traction. The fight against the “terrorists” has been the main daily obsession since it erupted through vast stretches of southeastern Ukraine in April. The fact that the government failed to release the details of the agreement announced by negotiators in Minsk, Belarus, on Friday only added to the worries. |
| Despite assurances from President Petro O. Poroshenko that the agreement will keep Ukraine whole, there was concern that Russia was dictating terms that would maintain a significant chunk of the country under its sway. It will largely be up to Mr. Poroshenko — who was elected in May on a platform of ending the war in two weeks and who faces parliamentary elections on Oct. 26 — to rapidly convince Ukrainians that coming to terms with the separatists was their best choice. | Despite assurances from President Petro O. Poroshenko that the agreement will keep Ukraine whole, there was concern that Russia was dictating terms that would maintain a significant chunk of the country under its sway. It will largely be up to Mr. Poroshenko — who was elected in May on a platform of ending the war in two weeks and who faces parliamentary elections on Oct. 26 — to rapidly convince Ukrainians that coming to terms with the separatists was their best choice. |
| “Ukrainian public opinion is not ready for a peace that does not reflect Ukrainian aspirations,” said Mykhailo Minakov, a university professor at Kiev-Mohyla Academy and a civil rights activist. “They are not ready to respect an agreement that would respond to the demands of the separatists or the Russians.” | “Ukrainian public opinion is not ready for a peace that does not reflect Ukrainian aspirations,” said Mykhailo Minakov, a university professor at Kiev-Mohyla Academy and a civil rights activist. “They are not ready to respect an agreement that would respond to the demands of the separatists or the Russians.” |
| Both sides claimed the other committed about 10 cease-fire violations, but most of them seemed to be immediately after the 6 p.m. deadline for the truce on Friday, or involved small arms fire. | |
| Col. Andriy Lysenko, the spokesman for Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, told a briefing in Kiev that the southeast was “generally calmer” and that the Ukrainian forces had not suffered any losses since the cease-fire went into effect. | |
| Vladimir Kononov, the defense minister of the self-declared pro-Russian Donetsk People’s Republic, said in an interview that nine cease-fire breaches overnight had left 10 of his men wounded. “If they go on breaking it, we will have to fire in response,” he said. | Vladimir Kononov, the defense minister of the self-declared pro-Russian Donetsk People’s Republic, said in an interview that nine cease-fire breaches overnight had left 10 of his men wounded. “If they go on breaking it, we will have to fire in response,” he said. |
| Mr. Kononov said he had yet to see the text of the agreement or received any orders from the leader of the breakaway region, Aleksandr Zakharchenko, who had negotiated it, on any further steps. | |
| Both the Ukrainian government and the separatists professed readiness to proceed immediately on Saturday with the agreement to exchange hostages and prisoners-of-war, estimated to number in the hundreds. But there was no official announcement of an actual exchange. | Both the Ukrainian government and the separatists professed readiness to proceed immediately on Saturday with the agreement to exchange hostages and prisoners-of-war, estimated to number in the hundreds. But there was no official announcement of an actual exchange. |
| President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Mr. Poroshenko spoke by telephone on Saturday, according to a statement on Mr. Poroshenko’s website, with both confirming that the cease-fire was holding. They also discussed next steps, though they did not publicly specify what they were. | President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Mr. Poroshenko spoke by telephone on Saturday, according to a statement on Mr. Poroshenko’s website, with both confirming that the cease-fire was holding. They also discussed next steps, though they did not publicly specify what they were. |
| In Moscow, the Russian foreign ministry issued a statement blasting a threat of further sanctions from the European Union on the very day a cease-fire was declared. It said Europe was supporting “the party of war.” | In Moscow, the Russian foreign ministry issued a statement blasting a threat of further sanctions from the European Union on the very day a cease-fire was declared. It said Europe was supporting “the party of war.” |
| Mr. Poroshenko said in Wales on Friday that the agreement mirrored both a peace plan proposed by Mr. Putin last week and his own proposal from June. Thus it included steps for an immediate cease-fire plus ways to return the region to normalcy and promises of greater self-government for the separatist regions. | Mr. Poroshenko said in Wales on Friday that the agreement mirrored both a peace plan proposed by Mr. Putin last week and his own proposal from June. Thus it included steps for an immediate cease-fire plus ways to return the region to normalcy and promises of greater self-government for the separatist regions. |
| The last part is likely to be the most difficult for the public to swallow since there was already the impression that Mr. Putin had won by leaving his proxy force in place. | The last part is likely to be the most difficult for the public to swallow since there was already the impression that Mr. Putin had won by leaving his proxy force in place. |
| Many believe that he seeks to create a frozen conflict — much as Russia did in Georgia and Moldova — to keep Ukraine permanently destabilized with a breakaway region dubbed “Novorossiya,” the old czarist name for the area, in its southeast corner. Since March, Moscow has demanded that Ukraine implement a federal system that gave regions significant autonomy, including the ability to establish their own foreign policy. | |
| But Ukraine has promised “decentralization” without really defining publicly what that means. | But Ukraine has promised “decentralization” without really defining publicly what that means. |
| “We are ready to provide significant steps including the decentralization of power, including the special status for certain districts in the Donetsk and Luhansk region for economic freedom,” Mr. Poroshenko told a news conference at the NATO summit in Wales after the cease-fire agreement was announced. But he concluded by stressing that the peace process was based on preserving “the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of my country.” | “We are ready to provide significant steps including the decentralization of power, including the special status for certain districts in the Donetsk and Luhansk region for economic freedom,” Mr. Poroshenko told a news conference at the NATO summit in Wales after the cease-fire agreement was announced. But he concluded by stressing that the peace process was based on preserving “the sovereignty, territorial integrity and independence of my country.” |
| In recent months, any discussion of what decentralization means has been overshadowed by the war. “This decentralizing is despised because everyone suspects that anyone who promotes it is secretly a separatist,” said Mr. Minakov, the professor. | In recent months, any discussion of what decentralization means has been overshadowed by the war. “This decentralizing is despised because everyone suspects that anyone who promotes it is secretly a separatist,” said Mr. Minakov, the professor. |
| Those who have discussed the issue with Mr. Poroshenko said regional autonomy was not part of his thinking, even if Russia and Mr. Putin in particular had used the term repeatedly. | Those who have discussed the issue with Mr. Poroshenko said regional autonomy was not part of his thinking, even if Russia and Mr. Putin in particular had used the term repeatedly. |
| Yevhen Bystrytsky, the executive director of the International Renaissance Foundation, part of the Open Society Foundations established by George Soros, said the seeming lack of concensus is a problem. He noted that initial Russian press reports about the truce had also started to use the word “decentralization.” | Yevhen Bystrytsky, the executive director of the International Renaissance Foundation, part of the Open Society Foundations established by George Soros, said the seeming lack of concensus is a problem. He noted that initial Russian press reports about the truce had also started to use the word “decentralization.” |
| But he added: “The principal issue is not to clarify both interpretations, the idea is to stop the war and then agree on something more.” | But he added: “The principal issue is not to clarify both interpretations, the idea is to stop the war and then agree on something more.” |
| Both the Ukrainian foreign ministry and the prime minister’s office refused to comment. There was not even full consensus on the number of points agreed at the negotiations in Belarus. Mr. Poroshenko said in Wales that there were 12, but some press reports in Ukraine and Russia put the number at 14. | Both the Ukrainian foreign ministry and the prime minister’s office refused to comment. There was not even full consensus on the number of points agreed at the negotiations in Belarus. Mr. Poroshenko said in Wales that there were 12, but some press reports in Ukraine and Russia put the number at 14. |
| “The key priority right now is to get our hostages back,” said Vladimir Garkavanko, a spokesman for Mr. Poroshenko. “The future of these regions is that they will remain a peaceful part of Ukrainian territory, but when this will happen is unclear.” | |
| For people in the east, there seemed to be uncertainty even about the coming hours. | For people in the east, there seemed to be uncertainty even about the coming hours. |
| In the southern village of Lebedinskoye, a woman who would give only her first name, Marina, was packing her two children into a car in order to beat a rapid getaway. The deaths a day earlier had rattled her. “We are going,” she said. “There was a strike behind that house and there are dead bodies there and they say at noon there will be shelling.” | In the southern village of Lebedinskoye, a woman who would give only her first name, Marina, was packing her two children into a car in order to beat a rapid getaway. The deaths a day earlier had rattled her. “We are going,” she said. “There was a strike behind that house and there are dead bodies there and they say at noon there will be shelling.” |
| The village stands on the front line between rebel fighters and Ukrainian military defenses. It was the scene of a last spurt of fighting Friday when a barrage of eight rockets slammed down just hours before a cease-fire was declared. Blood stains marked where the two children fell as they ran with their grandmother to an underground shelter. | The village stands on the front line between rebel fighters and Ukrainian military defenses. It was the scene of a last spurt of fighting Friday when a barrage of eight rockets slammed down just hours before a cease-fire was declared. Blood stains marked where the two children fell as they ran with their grandmother to an underground shelter. |
| On Saturday morning the area was quiet, civilians were out clearing up bomb damage and driving on the roads, and monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were out too. | On Saturday morning the area was quiet, civilians were out clearing up bomb damage and driving on the roads, and monitors from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe were out too. |
| For the people in this village and the one next door, Shirokino, the lull was almost as nerve-racking as the fighting. | For the people in this village and the one next door, Shirokino, the lull was almost as nerve-racking as the fighting. |
| “The most fearful thing is the silence between bombings,” said Natalia Logozinskaya, a shopkeeper, standing in the wreckage of a neighbor’s house hit by a shell. | “The most fearful thing is the silence between bombings,” said Natalia Logozinskaya, a shopkeeper, standing in the wreckage of a neighbor’s house hit by a shell. |