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The SNP will be safe in Nicola Sturgeon's hands The SNP will be safe in Nicola Sturgeon's hands
(8 months later)
On a Friday afternoon in Glasgow's South Side not very many weeks ago, Nicola Sturgeon walked into Heraghty's bar and ordered a gin and tonic. Heraghty's is the sort of old Glasgow tavern that specialises in studied indifference. Were Beyoncé ever to happen by the routine would be the same: eyes straight ahead, no flicker of recognition, desultory and loud chit-chat.On a Friday afternoon in Glasgow's South Side not very many weeks ago, Nicola Sturgeon walked into Heraghty's bar and ordered a gin and tonic. Heraghty's is the sort of old Glasgow tavern that specialises in studied indifference. Were Beyoncé ever to happen by the routine would be the same: eyes straight ahead, no flicker of recognition, desultory and loud chit-chat.
But this is the most powerful woman in Scotland and leader of the campaign for independence in a vote that is a mere few weeks hence. Soon, a little group of the Friday afternoon regulars has gathered about her on her debut visit and, for an hour or so, she engages with them on referendum issues, but also on life in general and Glasgow in particular. This is her constituency and she is encountering voters and neighbours in their own backyard. But this is the most powerful woman in Scotland and leader of the campaign for independence in a vote that is a mere few weeks hence. Soon, a little group of the Friday afternoon regulars has gathered about her on her debut visit and, for an hour or so, she engages with them on referendum issues, but also on life in general and Glasgow in particular. This is her constituency and she is encountering voters and neighbours in their own backyard.
A few days later, one of the bar's customers tells me: "Not many politicians of her calibre could have done that. And I liked the fact that she didn't try to dress down and felt able to walk straight in with her smart business suit."A few days later, one of the bar's customers tells me: "Not many politicians of her calibre could have done that. And I liked the fact that she didn't try to dress down and felt able to walk straight in with her smart business suit."
It is less than two weeks now until Scotland decides, with opinion polls showing that the union has never been closer to its denouement. If the country does indeed vote yes, then Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, will be given all the gifts that the grateful half of a divided nation can bestow on her.It is less than two weeks now until Scotland decides, with opinion polls showing that the union has never been closer to its denouement. If the country does indeed vote yes, then Sturgeon, the deputy first minister, will be given all the gifts that the grateful half of a divided nation can bestow on her.
In due course, the premiership of Scotland will be hers for the taking. In normal circumstances, questions about her continuing loyalty to Alex Salmond and her own ambitions to lead the party and the country would have arisen during this campaign in a bid to sow disunity.In due course, the premiership of Scotland will be hers for the taking. In normal circumstances, questions about her continuing loyalty to Alex Salmond and her own ambitions to lead the party and the country would have arisen during this campaign in a bid to sow disunity.
After all, she's been Salmond's number two since 2004 and if this were Westminster she would risk being forever painted as the loyal deputy who may have waited too long to strike for the top. But this is Scotland and there are nuances working in Sturgeon's favour.After all, she's been Salmond's number two since 2004 and if this were Westminster she would risk being forever painted as the loyal deputy who may have waited too long to strike for the top. But this is Scotland and there are nuances working in Sturgeon's favour.
In Glasgow city centre on Thursday afternoon, both she and the first minister were garlanded with flowers and good wishes from a phalanx of nationalist supporters to mark the 10th anniversary of the day that they were appointed to the SNP's top two positions. One seasoned observer of the political scene in Scotland told me: "Nicola is very ambitious but her loyalty to Alex Salmond is deep and genuine and she would never be part of anything that undermines him. The length of their tenure together has worked very well for both of them."In Glasgow city centre on Thursday afternoon, both she and the first minister were garlanded with flowers and good wishes from a phalanx of nationalist supporters to mark the 10th anniversary of the day that they were appointed to the SNP's top two positions. One seasoned observer of the political scene in Scotland told me: "Nicola is very ambitious but her loyalty to Alex Salmond is deep and genuine and she would never be part of anything that undermines him. The length of their tenure together has worked very well for both of them."
Sturgeon had fancied her own chances of becoming leader before moving adroitly aside when Salmond announced his intention to run. He returned the favour by making her his deputy and so began one of the most formidable political partnerships that has ever existed in UK politics.Sturgeon had fancied her own chances of becoming leader before moving adroitly aside when Salmond announced his intention to run. He returned the favour by making her his deputy and so began one of the most formidable political partnerships that has ever existed in UK politics.
Her ability, professionalism and burgeoning influence on the party shielded Salmond from any dissent in this most tempestuous and disputatious political party.Her ability, professionalism and burgeoning influence on the party shielded Salmond from any dissent in this most tempestuous and disputatious political party.
Salmond has handed her proper jobs with proper responsibility and with them the opportunity to create her own sphere of influence. She handled the notoriously vexatious health brief with confidence and style while developing a reputation as a skilled Holyrood orator and a favourite of the party conference crowd, who have overseen her blossoming since she bounded on to the stage in jeans and T-shirt as an undergraduate law student. She is also married to the party's laconic chief executive, Peter Murrell, long regarded as the UK's premier political and electoral strategist.Salmond has handed her proper jobs with proper responsibility and with them the opportunity to create her own sphere of influence. She handled the notoriously vexatious health brief with confidence and style while developing a reputation as a skilled Holyrood orator and a favourite of the party conference crowd, who have overseen her blossoming since she bounded on to the stage in jeans and T-shirt as an undergraduate law student. She is also married to the party's laconic chief executive, Peter Murrell, long regarded as the UK's premier political and electoral strategist.
The result of the Salmond/Sturgeon partnership has been an extended period of darkness for the Labour party in Scotland, which began with the SNP grabbing power in 2007 and then making themselves unassailable in 2011 with the majority that paved the way for the independence referendum. There are no visible signs of any recovery from Labour in Scotland. Their only chance to emerge from the political wilderness in Scotland is, perversely, to hope for a yes vote on 18 September and thereafter hope that the economy encounters the sort of turbulence that they have been gleefully predicting for the last 18 months. They are in a wretched position and can only be rescued by wretched events.The result of the Salmond/Sturgeon partnership has been an extended period of darkness for the Labour party in Scotland, which began with the SNP grabbing power in 2007 and then making themselves unassailable in 2011 with the majority that paved the way for the independence referendum. There are no visible signs of any recovery from Labour in Scotland. Their only chance to emerge from the political wilderness in Scotland is, perversely, to hope for a yes vote on 18 September and thereafter hope that the economy encounters the sort of turbulence that they have been gleefully predicting for the last 18 months. They are in a wretched position and can only be rescued by wretched events.
It is unlikely that Salmond will ever be forced out by his own party and he will be accorded the rare privilege of going at a time of his own choosing. The momentum in the country has turned in favour of Scottish nationalism at a crucial moment in Scotland's history and, even if the first minister can't quite deliver a yes in the referendum vote, it will probably be close enough for it to be deemed a successful campaign for him.It is unlikely that Salmond will ever be forced out by his own party and he will be accorded the rare privilege of going at a time of his own choosing. The momentum in the country has turned in favour of Scottish nationalism at a crucial moment in Scotland's history and, even if the first minister can't quite deliver a yes in the referendum vote, it will probably be close enough for it to be deemed a successful campaign for him.
In these circumstances, he will serve out the remaining two years of his tenure before, in all probability, handing over to Sturgeon. If it is a yes vote, he will want to taste the wine of triumph for a while longer before an orderly handover to his deputy. That, though, is conditional on an independent Scotland being successful in its first few years and a currency union having been secured with the rest of the UK.In these circumstances, he will serve out the remaining two years of his tenure before, in all probability, handing over to Sturgeon. If it is a yes vote, he will want to taste the wine of triumph for a while longer before an orderly handover to his deputy. That, though, is conditional on an independent Scotland being successful in its first few years and a currency union having been secured with the rest of the UK.
Spending more than 10 years as a deputy is rarely good for the career health of ambitious politicians anywhere, but several factors have worked in Sturgeon's favour. She has not been an indolent or ceremonial deputy of the type that Westminster has made a speciality, personified by Nick Clegg.Spending more than 10 years as a deputy is rarely good for the career health of ambitious politicians anywhere, but several factors have worked in Sturgeon's favour. She has not been an indolent or ceremonial deputy of the type that Westminster has made a speciality, personified by Nick Clegg.
She also possesses that bedrock of warmth in the party that her potential rivals lack, with the exception of John Swinney. He, though, has made it clear that there is no chance of him ever running for the leadership again. For various reasons, no other member of Salmond's cabinet will challenge for the top job when it becomes available.She also possesses that bedrock of warmth in the party that her potential rivals lack, with the exception of John Swinney. He, though, has made it clear that there is no chance of him ever running for the leadership again. For various reasons, no other member of Salmond's cabinet will challenge for the top job when it becomes available.
When the time comes for her to become leader, Salmond's legacy and political vision will live on. This means that, even if it's a narrow no vote on the 18th, another independence referendum will happen again soon. All they have to do is preserve their Holyrood majority against a Labour party barely worthy of the name.When the time comes for her to become leader, Salmond's legacy and political vision will live on. This means that, even if it's a narrow no vote on the 18th, another independence referendum will happen again soon. All they have to do is preserve their Holyrood majority against a Labour party barely worthy of the name.