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Roll up, roll up! The Amazing Salmond will show a Scotland you won't believe Roll up, roll up! The Amazing Salmond will show a Scotland you won't believe
(about 1 hour later)
Alex Salmond is undoubtedly the most successful politician practising in these islands today. He has led Scots first to an SNP majority at Holyrood, now to the brink of a historic break with the rest of the UK ("rUK"?).Alex Salmond is undoubtedly the most successful politician practising in these islands today. He has led Scots first to an SNP majority at Holyrood, now to the brink of a historic break with the rest of the UK ("rUK"?).
He has done so by telling them they can keep all the bits of Britain they like – the BBC and the pound – while discarding the nasty Tory or New Labour bits, like austerity and war. As Martin Kettle shouts , it's the only game that matters now. In the face of enfeebled, self-harming opposition on both sides of the border (and a miserable economic recession on both sides too) he has performed brilliantly. He has done so by telling them they can keep all the bits of Britain they like – the BBC and the pound – while discarding the nasty Tory or New Labour bits, like austerity and war. As Martin Kettle shouts, it's the only game that matters now. In the face of enfeebled, self-harming opposition on both sides of the border (and a miserable economic recession on both sides too) he has performed brilliantly.
He is a political chameleon, as charming to business leaders he met privately in Aberdeen on Friday night as he has been inspiring to distressed and desperate Labour defectors in Glasgow and beyond. The ex-oil economist can do it all because he has the gift of the gab and used to be a leftwing tearaway, expelled from the SNP ranks in stuffier times.He is a political chameleon, as charming to business leaders he met privately in Aberdeen on Friday night as he has been inspiring to distressed and desperate Labour defectors in Glasgow and beyond. The ex-oil economist can do it all because he has the gift of the gab and used to be a leftwing tearaway, expelled from the SNP ranks in stuffier times.
I refer to his answer on development aid, the one he gave to a grumpy Daily Express type in Perth's Salutation hotel on Monday night. This is what Cameron, Clegg and Miliband are up against. Elderly Mr Grumpy had asked whether we should be spending 0.7% of GDP on aid when so much of it is wasted and some goes to countries with their own nuclear programmes. Salmond said the man was "quite right" about waste but that Scotland's own aid programme – started by Labour's first ministers, Henry McLeish and Jack McConnell, he generously noted – is different. "I challenge you to find a penny that has been wasted." But on the main thrust – "should we spend 0.7% of our wealth to help people who have nothing? YES WE SHOULD."I refer to his answer on development aid, the one he gave to a grumpy Daily Express type in Perth's Salutation hotel on Monday night. This is what Cameron, Clegg and Miliband are up against. Elderly Mr Grumpy had asked whether we should be spending 0.7% of GDP on aid when so much of it is wasted and some goes to countries with their own nuclear programmes. Salmond said the man was "quite right" about waste but that Scotland's own aid programme – started by Labour's first ministers, Henry McLeish and Jack McConnell, he generously noted – is different. "I challenge you to find a penny that has been wasted." But on the main thrust – "should we spend 0.7% of our wealth to help people who have nothing? YES WE SHOULD."
Thanks in no small measure to the collective memory of David Livingstone, Scotland's most famous missionary explorer, help for Africa is special here. Gordon Brown, himself raised on Livingstone stories in the family manse, could and would have given a similar answer, dull but decent. But the real talent, the election-winning Wilson or Blair bit (the pair won seven general elections between them), lay in the seemingly inconsequential back half of Salmond's answer. Thanks in no small measure to the collective memory of David Livingstone, Scotland's most famous missionary explorer, help for Africa is special here. Gordon Brown, himself raised on Livingstone stories in the family manse, could and would have given a similar answer, dull but decent.
But the real talent, the election-winning Wilson or Blair bit (the pair won seven general elections between them), lay in the seemingly inconsequential back half of Salmond's answer.
He spoke of Scotland's hydroelectric projects in Africa, local expertise shared with the world's poor. Thanks to Scottish aid football fans in a Malawi village – a Livingstone country with which Scotland has deep ties – were able to watch this year's World Cup on TV for the first time. A vivid little story capped by a seeming afterthought. "Tragically, Malawi did not qualify for the World Cup." (Pause while the audience chuckle). Even more tragically, Scotland did not qualify for the World Cup either." After the pause for much more self-deprecating laughter and with everyone listening, Salmond rounded off his story on a high-minded note. The hospital near that village is also powered by the same hydro project, he told them.He spoke of Scotland's hydroelectric projects in Africa, local expertise shared with the world's poor. Thanks to Scottish aid football fans in a Malawi village – a Livingstone country with which Scotland has deep ties – were able to watch this year's World Cup on TV for the first time. A vivid little story capped by a seeming afterthought. "Tragically, Malawi did not qualify for the World Cup." (Pause while the audience chuckle). Even more tragically, Scotland did not qualify for the World Cup either." After the pause for much more self-deprecating laughter and with everyone listening, Salmond rounded off his story on a high-minded note. The hospital near that village is also powered by the same hydro project, he told them.
Pretty good stuff, I'd say. Not many politicians could have handled it half as well. Even Mr Grumpy probably felt satisfied. Salmond has the capacity to make a large chunk of any audience believe in him and in themselves. It's a feelgood process that assuages instinctive scepticism which some must have felt ("that man's a comedian" one audience member told me as he left) towards his answers on tax or the currency problem, on defence jobs or skills shortages, on assorted holes that might loom in the health, education or research budgets if Scotland's oil revenues are not as buoyant as the current Scottish government tells voters they will be. Pretty good stuff, I'd say. Not many politicians could have handled it half as well. Even Mr Grumpy probably felt satisfied. Salmond has the capacity to make a large chunk of any audience believe in him and in themselves. It's a feelgood process that assuages instinctive scepticism which some must have felt ("that man's a comedian," one audience member told me as he left) towards his answers on tax or the currency problem, on defence jobs or skills shortages, on assorted holes that might loom in the health, education or research budgets if Scotland's oil revenues are not as buoyant as the current Scottish government tells voters they will be.
One more anecdote. Earlier in the evening, just after the first minister had less attractively asked why George Osborne is so keen to hang on to Scotland (Cameron doesn't care, he asserted), "if we are subsidy junkies" (the oil), he confessed to a weakness: his well known passion for horseracing ("it's one of my vices"). One more anecdote. Earlier in the evening, he confessed to a weakness: his well known passion for horseracing ("it's one of my vices").
Part of its charm is that "it's a sport which attracts every single stratum of society, including Her Majesty the Queen, the whole of society is engaged". True, if a touch exaggerated. And the moral of the tale? "The yes campaign is not the SNP or me, it's not one spectrum. We can do better running ourselves."Part of its charm is that "it's a sport which attracts every single stratum of society, including Her Majesty the Queen, the whole of society is engaged". True, if a touch exaggerated. And the moral of the tale? "The yes campaign is not the SNP or me, it's not one spectrum. We can do better running ourselves."
Brilliant. With one deft sidestep Her Maj was thereby enlisted in the yes camp, despite the alarm she is reported to be feeling about the prospect of having to rule over two kingdoms. It was an arrangement brought about in 1603 by the Stewart (Scottish spelling) dynast, James I and VI (of Scotland, as English schoolboys were once politely taught), and ended in 1707 under the last Protestant Stuart (English spelling), Queen Anne, before her distant Hanoverian cousins inherited the British throne in 1714 and saw off the Catholic Stewarts invasion the following year (and again in 1745-6 for luck). Brilliant. With one deft sidestep Her Maj was thereby enlisted in the yes camp, despite the alarm she is reported to be feeling about the prospect of having to rule over two kingdoms. It was an arrangement brought about in 1603 by the Stewart (Scottish spelling) dynast, James I and VI (of Scotland, as English schoolboys were once politely taught), and ended in 1707 under the last Protestant Stuart (English spelling), Queen Anne, before her distant Hanoverian cousins inherited the British throne in 1714 and saw off the Catholic Stewarts' invasion the following year (and again in 1745-6 for luck).
This is what Scottish audiences have been hearing for two years now, ever since Salmond – hesitant for a year after winning the Holyrood majority, the system was designed to deny all parties – took the plunge he was expected to take on full independence. After much manoeuvring, Cameron ruled out the third option on the 18 September ballot paper – the compromise offer known as "devo max". He did so because it was not in the SNP's 2011 manifesto, though it is still on the table if Scotland votes no. Westminster will spell out further details this week. This is what Scottish audiences have been hearing for two years now, ever since Salmond took the plunge he was expected to take on full independence.
We will know soon enough whether Cameron's was a masterly piece of nerve keeping, or the fatal blunder that broke the union of 1707. In 2012, Salmond gave some listeners the impression that devo max is what he really wanted. Whatever the outcome, Fleet Street's introspective pundits will say I told you so, and make dire predictions for the future, which are likely to be off the mark. After much manoeuvring, Cameron ruled out the third option on the 18 September ballot paper – the compromise offer known as "devo max". He did so because it was not in the SNP's 2011 manifesto, though it is still on the table if Scotland votes no. Westminster will spell out further details this week.
The fact is that more sensible analysts suspect the future will not be what either side predicts for the reason that the wider world is in a rare and dangerous state of flux. Who can predict how the crisis in the Middle East will unfold – or affect oil prices? How the EU will resolve its problems – or not ? How China and the US will handle the changing power balance between them? How the arch-nationalist Vladimir Putin will channel separatism in Ukraine ? We will know soon enough whether Cameron's was a masterly piece of nerve keeping, or the fatal blunder that broke the union of 1707. In 2012, Salmond gave some listeners the impression that devo max is what he really wanted. Whatever the outcome, Fleet Street's introspective pundits will say: "I told you so", and make dire predictions for the future, which are likely to be off the mark.
The fact is that more sensible analysts suspect the future will not be what either side predicts for the reason that the wider world is in a rare and dangerous state of flux. Who can predict how the crisis in the Middle East will unfold – or affect oil prices? How the EU will resolve its problems – or not? How China and the US will handle the changing power balance between them? How the arch-nationalist Vladimir Putin will channel separatism in Ukraine?
In that context Scotland's fate is a modest element, a symptom of wider fragmentation of the current global order, a footnote to the fall of empire and the Berlin Wall, important to us and punchdrunk neighbours like France and Italy, a mere curiosity to emerging titans like Brazil.In that context Scotland's fate is a modest element, a symptom of wider fragmentation of the current global order, a footnote to the fall of empire and the Berlin Wall, important to us and punchdrunk neighbours like France and Italy, a mere curiosity to emerging titans like Brazil.
But Salmond the magician's dazzle has not pulled those crucial rabbits out of his hat. Not on tax and spending, on the currency union which he wants (but rUK does not), on Scotland's relations with an EU which does not want this aggro. He has changed his tune on all of them in ways that would have sunk a lesser politician. The fact that Cameron is Salmond lite in his own approach to rUK's relations with Europe – devo-max or independence, eh, Dave? – does not help anyone, except perhaps the first minister.But Salmond the magician's dazzle has not pulled those crucial rabbits out of his hat. Not on tax and spending, on the currency union which he wants (but rUK does not), on Scotland's relations with an EU which does not want this aggro. He has changed his tune on all of them in ways that would have sunk a lesser politician. The fact that Cameron is Salmond lite in his own approach to rUK's relations with Europe – devo-max or independence, eh, Dave? – does not help anyone, except perhaps the first minister.
And there is the lurking paradox that may – just may – rescue the embattled no camp. Salmond is also like Wilson and Blair in the sense that he generates startling levels of personal mistrust, among supporters as well as foes. Plenty want to ditch him in favour of a "real" leftwing or green government when the yes vote has prevailed. Others argue that, freed of Tory taint and London domination, Scotland will enjoy a free market revival.And there is the lurking paradox that may – just may – rescue the embattled no camp. Salmond is also like Wilson and Blair in the sense that he generates startling levels of personal mistrust, among supporters as well as foes. Plenty want to ditch him in favour of a "real" leftwing or green government when the yes vote has prevailed. Others argue that, freed of Tory taint and London domination, Scotland will enjoy a free market revival.
Salmond studied medieval Scottish history as well as economics at university so he cannot he has not had fair warning – it was even more turbulent and bloody than England at that time – and plenty of Scotland's kings and leaders came to a sticky end. If it happens this time, it won't be dull. Salmond studied medieval Scottish history as well as economics at university so he cannot say he has not had fair warning – it was even more turbulent and bloody than England at that time – and plenty of Scotland's kings and leaders came to a sticky end. If it happens this time, it won't be dull.