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| Is Islamic State heading for Lebanon? | Is Islamic State heading for Lebanon? |
| (about 17 hours later) | |
| "The Islamic State has succeeded in awakening the monster within us," announced the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation (LBCI) in its evening news bulletin on 8 September. | "The Islamic State has succeeded in awakening the monster within us," announced the Lebanese Broadcasting Corporation (LBCI) in its evening news bulletin on 8 September. |
| As the anchor read the news, the video of the beheading of a second Lebanese soldier was being posted online. | As the anchor read the news, the video of the beheading of a second Lebanese soldier was being posted online. |
| An IS statement released two days earlier said Abbas Medlej, a Shia soldier, had attempted to escape his captors. | An IS statement released two days earlier said Abbas Medlej, a Shia soldier, had attempted to escape his captors. |
| After his execution, leaflets sprung up in Shia areas of Lebanon's capital Beirut demanding that Syrian refugees leave. | After his execution, leaflets sprung up in Shia areas of Lebanon's capital Beirut demanding that Syrian refugees leave. |
| Meanwhile, in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, five Lebanese Sunnis were kidnapped in apparent retaliation for the killing. | Meanwhile, in the Bekaa Valley in eastern Lebanon, five Lebanese Sunnis were kidnapped in apparent retaliation for the killing. |
| The LBCI anchor's words described a descent into the "rituals of the civil war" as the kidnappings began and Syrian refugees were chased out of neighbourhoods by thugs with sticks. | The LBCI anchor's words described a descent into the "rituals of the civil war" as the kidnappings began and Syrian refugees were chased out of neighbourhoods by thugs with sticks. |
| Viewed from Lebanon, the expansion of IS in parts of Syria and Iraq over the past few months seemed to be a distant development. | Viewed from Lebanon, the expansion of IS in parts of Syria and Iraq over the past few months seemed to be a distant development. |
| But now, everyone seems to be asking the same question: Are they coming here? The possibility appears exaggerated at times, underestimated at others. | But now, everyone seems to be asking the same question: Are they coming here? The possibility appears exaggerated at times, underestimated at others. |
| The IS militants who descended on the town of Arsal came from the mountains surrounding the village and straddling the border. | The IS militants who descended on the town of Arsal came from the mountains surrounding the village and straddling the border. |
| Chased out of the cities of the Qalamoun mountain range by Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, a number of opposition factions had set up camp in the mountains. | Chased out of the cities of the Qalamoun mountain range by Hezbollah and the Syrian regime, a number of opposition factions had set up camp in the mountains. |
| IS fighters were a minority among them; the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, is thought to be the biggest force in the mountains. | IS fighters were a minority among them; the al-Nusra Front, an al-Qaeda affiliate, is thought to be the biggest force in the mountains. |
| Furthermore, some of the fighters in the mountains had only pledged allegiance to IS days before the battle. It is unclear how solid their organisational and ideological ties to IS are. | Furthermore, some of the fighters in the mountains had only pledged allegiance to IS days before the battle. It is unclear how solid their organisational and ideological ties to IS are. |
| Fears overblown? | Fears overblown? |
| In Syria and Iraq, IS has territorial depth to fall back on and to push forth from. In Qalamoun, they are a minority among larger groups which are themselves trapped and cut off from supplies. | In Syria and Iraq, IS has territorial depth to fall back on and to push forth from. In Qalamoun, they are a minority among larger groups which are themselves trapped and cut off from supplies. |
| Given this, scenarios of a looming invasion by IS fighters appear overblown unless and until they open a route from their strongholds in Syria to the Lebanese border. | |
| But what if the group were to spring up from within? | But what if the group were to spring up from within? |
| A main demand of IS and al-Nusra, which has also captured Lebanese soldiers, is the release of Islamist prisoners from the Roumieh prison on the outskirts of Beirut. | A main demand of IS and al-Nusra, which has also captured Lebanese soldiers, is the release of Islamist prisoners from the Roumieh prison on the outskirts of Beirut. |
| The prison houses hundreds of inmates, including many who took part in battles against the Lebanese army in 2007. But dozens have been held for years without being tried. | The prison houses hundreds of inmates, including many who took part in battles against the Lebanese army in 2007. But dozens have been held for years without being tried. |
| In the predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon, many have been seething at the treatment of the Islamists in Roumieh. | In the predominantly Sunni city of Tripoli in northern Lebanon, many have been seething at the treatment of the Islamists in Roumieh. |
| "Fayez Karam gets two years, serves one and a half," a Salafi sheikh told me, referring to a Christian politician who'd been convicted of spying for Israel. | "Fayez Karam gets two years, serves one and a half," a Salafi sheikh told me, referring to a Christian politician who'd been convicted of spying for Israel. |
| "Meanwhile an Islamist who simply received a call from a wanted man stays in prison for seven years without a verdict." | "Meanwhile an Islamist who simply received a call from a wanted man stays in prison for seven years without a verdict." |
| Many Sunnis also accuse the government of violating its official policy of neutrality on Syria's civil war. | Many Sunnis also accuse the government of violating its official policy of neutrality on Syria's civil war. |
| While Hezbollah fighters have moved with ease across the border to fight alongside the regime, Sunnis suspected of militancy have faced the scrutiny of the state. | While Hezbollah fighters have moved with ease across the border to fight alongside the regime, Sunnis suspected of militancy have faced the scrutiny of the state. |
| "It's that feeling that their blood is valuable and ours is cheap," he explained, "that could make more people support the Islamic State and the use of violence to deter injustice." | "It's that feeling that their blood is valuable and ours is cheap," he explained, "that could make more people support the Islamic State and the use of violence to deter injustice." |
| Lebanon has always been a country of extremes and opposites, but never more than now. | Lebanon has always been a country of extremes and opposites, but never more than now. |
| In streets lined with bars and pubs in central Beirut, destitute Syrian refugees brush shoulders with the rich and privileged. | In streets lined with bars and pubs in central Beirut, destitute Syrian refugees brush shoulders with the rich and privileged. |
| Growing tension | Growing tension |
| With every new beheading, refugees face the possibility of being displaced once again from their street corners in Beirut, and their tents and shantytowns in the countryside. | With every new beheading, refugees face the possibility of being displaced once again from their street corners in Beirut, and their tents and shantytowns in the countryside. |
| Meanwhile, there are signs that Lebanon's political elites are gradually losing control over the masses. | Meanwhile, there are signs that Lebanon's political elites are gradually losing control over the masses. |
| One of the leaflets ordering Syrian refugees to leave a neighbourhood in Beirut warned Hezbollah not to intervene. Reports emerged that the Shia group was rushing to contain the anger on the streets after the beheading of Abbas Medlej. | One of the leaflets ordering Syrian refugees to leave a neighbourhood in Beirut warned Hezbollah not to intervene. Reports emerged that the Shia group was rushing to contain the anger on the streets after the beheading of Abbas Medlej. |
| For months, Hezbollah has struck a balance between drumming up support for its fight in Syria, and keeping its popular base under control. Now, they could be reaching the limits of their sway over their supporters. | For months, Hezbollah has struck a balance between drumming up support for its fight in Syria, and keeping its popular base under control. Now, they could be reaching the limits of their sway over their supporters. |
| Splits are also showing within the Sunni community. | Splits are also showing within the Sunni community. |
| In Saadnayel, the Sunni town in the Bekaa Valley from which one of the five men was kidnapped, there was a skirmish between supporters of Sunni leader Saad Hariri and opponents who tried to tear down his posters. | |
| For years, the billionaire, backed by the West and Saudi Arabia, commanded majority support among Sunnis in Lebanon, and launched scathing attacks against Hezbollah, Iran and the Syrian government. | For years, the billionaire, backed by the West and Saudi Arabia, commanded majority support among Sunnis in Lebanon, and launched scathing attacks against Hezbollah, Iran and the Syrian government. |
| But he was constantly outmanoeuvred by his foes and forced into compromises for little in return. | But he was constantly outmanoeuvred by his foes and forced into compromises for little in return. |
| The strains are also showing within the Islamist scene. The Salafi sheikh I spoke to in Tripoli has been receiving death threats from supporters of IS angered by sheikhs who are still reluctant to declare enmity to the Lebanese state and its institutions. | The strains are also showing within the Islamist scene. The Salafi sheikh I spoke to in Tripoli has been receiving death threats from supporters of IS angered by sheikhs who are still reluctant to declare enmity to the Lebanese state and its institutions. |
| The first soldier to be beheaded was a Sunni, and the militants who beheaded both soldiers are thought to be Lebanese. | The first soldier to be beheaded was a Sunni, and the militants who beheaded both soldiers are thought to be Lebanese. |
| For IS, Sunnis who fight in national armies against them are reverts from Islam who have taken the side of infidels. | For IS, Sunnis who fight in national armies against them are reverts from Islam who have taken the side of infidels. |
| I asked the sheikh whether IS was recruiting in Tripoli. | I asked the sheikh whether IS was recruiting in Tripoli. |
| "Not in public, no," he said. "But we don't know what goes on out of sight." | "Not in public, no," he said. "But we don't know what goes on out of sight." |