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Scotland independence vote: ‘We will win' says Darling. 'I know that because I’ve seen the returns’ Scotland independence vote: ‘We will win' says Darling. 'I know that because I’ve seen the returns’
(about 5 hours later)
Scottish voters will not shatter the union in this week’s historic referendum vote, Alistair Darling vowed yesterday. Scottish voters will not shatter the union in this week’s historic referendum vote, Alistair Darling has vowed.
Mr Darling, head of the Better Together campaign, insisted Scotland’s largest cities have not deserted the union and Labour’s traditionally strong urban voters remain wary of leaving the UK.Mr Darling, head of the Better Together campaign, insisted Scotland’s largest cities have not deserted the union and Labour’s traditionally strong urban voters remain wary of leaving the UK.
New canvassing data disclosed to The Independent on Sunday, suggests Alex Salmond’s claim of a “decisive” Yes result on Thursday is looking unlikely.New canvassing data disclosed to The Independent on Sunday, suggests Alex Salmond’s claim of a “decisive” Yes result on Thursday is looking unlikely.
After the shock last weekend of the first poll to give the Yes campaign a narrow lead, recent polls suggested a resurgence and a slim lead of between two and four points for voters in Scotland wanting to remain part of the UK. Internal canvassing carried out by Labour activists challenges the claim by Scotland’s First Minister that a substantial momentum is with the Yes campaign.After the shock last weekend of the first poll to give the Yes campaign a narrow lead, recent polls suggested a resurgence and a slim lead of between two and four points for voters in Scotland wanting to remain part of the UK. Internal canvassing carried out by Labour activists challenges the claim by Scotland’s First Minister that a substantial momentum is with the Yes campaign.
The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.The analysis shown to the IoS of tens of thousands of Labour supporters, mainly in the party’s city heartlands, reveals that despite a “wobble” in mid-August, the critical switch from Labour to Yes, which is needed to take Mr Salmond’s campaign to victory, is not happening on the scale required to pull Scotland from its 300-year-old constitutional relationship with Westminster.
Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.Forecasts taken from the large-scale canvassing and factored into other polling data, point to Dundee, often cited as one of the strongest Yes territories, voting No by 57 per cent to 43 per cent. Glasgow, once a Labour fortress, has been heavily targetted by Yes activists. But Labour’s internal polling suggests the claimed desertion-rate of its supporters has been blown out of proportion, with canvassing forecasting an overall result of 64 per cent support for No and 36 per cent for Yes.
One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against.One of the shock results of Thursday night could be Aberdeen, Scotland’s oil capital. Aberdeen and its position as a global oil industry research powerhouse, is held up by the Yes camp as an example of what Scotland’s independent future could look like. But forecasts put support for independence at just 30 per cent, with 70 per cent against.
Speaking in Edinburgh yesterday, Mr Darling sounded confident. He said: “We will win. I know that because I’ve seen the returns. I see them every day – and they are good.” Speaking in Edinburgh, Mr Darling sounded confident. He said: “We will win. I know that because I’ve seen the returns. I see them every day – and they are good.”
Scotland’s pro-union Tory voters are almost rock-solid in their support for No. It is estimated from internal Conservative polling that 97 per cent of the party’s supporters will vote No.Scotland’s pro-union Tory voters are almost rock-solid in their support for No. It is estimated from internal Conservative polling that 97 per cent of the party’s supporters will vote No.
The canvassing figures from both main parties contrast with a recent ICM poll which put Conservative support for Yes at 7 per cent, and support from identified Labour voters for independence at 29 per cent. The ICM figures gave the No side a two-point lead. But if the canvassing returns from Scotland’s main cities is carried through to Thursday’s vote, that lead is expected to widen.The canvassing figures from both main parties contrast with a recent ICM poll which put Conservative support for Yes at 7 per cent, and support from identified Labour voters for independence at 29 per cent. The ICM figures gave the No side a two-point lead. But if the canvassing returns from Scotland’s main cities is carried through to Thursday’s vote, that lead is expected to widen.
A sustained desertion rate from former Tory and Labour voters is seen as critical if Mr Salmond is to cross the winning line. But senior Labour insiders claim they have identified potential waverers now deciding independence is less appealing and riskier than a Scottish parliament with its own tax and spending powers.A sustained desertion rate from former Tory and Labour voters is seen as critical if Mr Salmond is to cross the winning line. But senior Labour insiders claim they have identified potential waverers now deciding independence is less appealing and riskier than a Scottish parliament with its own tax and spending powers.
One leading Labour figure said: “The wobble of a week or so ago was real. But it served to remind people that the possibility of the nationalists winning and taking Scotland irreversibly out of the union was going to happen if they sat and watched.”One leading Labour figure said: “The wobble of a week or so ago was real. But it served to remind people that the possibility of the nationalists winning and taking Scotland irreversibly out of the union was going to happen if they sat and watched.”
However Mr Darling’s optimism was questioned by the Yes campaign, who claimed their own canvas returns showed they were ahead.However Mr Darling’s optimism was questioned by the Yes campaign, who claimed their own canvas returns showed they were ahead.
Tony Blair yesterday broke his silence over Scottish independence by warning voters not to “rip up the alliance” of the UK.Tony Blair yesterday broke his silence over Scottish independence by warning voters not to “rip up the alliance” of the UK.
Speaking at a security conference in Ukraine, the Edinburgh-born former prime minister said a Yes vote “would not be sensible politically, economically or even emotionally”. Mr Blair had until yesterday refused to enter the referendum debate, preferring to let the current Westminster leaders battle it out with Alex Salmond. His successor and ex-rival Gordon Brown has also been seen as the No campaign’s leading light, and there may have been a wish from the Blair camp not to compete for coverage. Yet with just five days to go until the vote, Mr Blair, whose premiership oversaw Scottish devolution, said at the YES (Yalta European Strategy) Ukraine summit in Kiev: “I hope Scotland votes to stay part of the United Kingdom.Speaking at a security conference in Ukraine, the Edinburgh-born former prime minister said a Yes vote “would not be sensible politically, economically or even emotionally”. Mr Blair had until yesterday refused to enter the referendum debate, preferring to let the current Westminster leaders battle it out with Alex Salmond. His successor and ex-rival Gordon Brown has also been seen as the No campaign’s leading light, and there may have been a wish from the Blair camp not to compete for coverage. Yet with just five days to go until the vote, Mr Blair, whose premiership oversaw Scottish devolution, said at the YES (Yalta European Strategy) Ukraine summit in Kiev: “I hope Scotland votes to stay part of the United Kingdom.
“For all the reasons given by all the party leaders of the UK, in the 21st century to rip up the alliance between our countries would not be sensible, politically, economically or even emotionally.”“For all the reasons given by all the party leaders of the UK, in the 21st century to rip up the alliance between our countries would not be sensible, politically, economically or even emotionally.”
Jane MerrickJane Merrick