Scottish independence: Ban opinion polls in the run-up to elections says Baroness Boothroyd

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/scottish-independence/scottish-independence-ban-opinion-polls-in-the-runup-to-elections-says-baroness-boothroyd-9734315.html

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Baroness Boothroyd, the former Commons Speaker, has called for a ban on the publication of opinion polls in the run-up to elections and referendums following the conflicting surveys before Scotland votes on Thursday.

Lady Boothroyd told The Independent: “The polls on the referendum are very confusing and contradictory. I am worried that they potentially could influence the outcome of the vote. I think the time has really come to do as the French do. We should ban them up to a week before polling day. Then people can make up their minds without all these confusing polls.”

The referendum campaign was transformed by a YouGov poll nine days ago showing the Yes camp ahead for the first time. The race is now too close to call, with the latest “poll of polls” by What Scotland Thinks putting No on 51 per cent and Yes on 49 per cent.

The referendum is the first major UK political event when most polls have been conducted on the internet rather than face-to-face or by telephone.

Pollsters admit they are nervous about the result. Martin Boon, director of ICM, acknowledged “a long-held concern” that the panels of voters used in online polls could be infiltrated by supporters of a political party or one side in a referendum. On BBC Radio 4’s More or Less programme, he disclosed that he told Yes and No campaign leaders last month that “if they weren’t trying to infiltrate online panels, then what on earth are they doing?” But he said there had not been more people joining ICM’s online panel in Scotland than in England.

Mr Boon was concerned that pollsters are dependent on a “relatively small pot of Scots” being interviewed by all the polling companies. “In that lies a real danger about the accuracy of the polls,” he said. “This referendum has the potential to be a polling Waterloo, the biggest since [the] 1992 [election] when the polls got it wrong.

"I can’t say I would be surprised. I think the best we can hope for as an industry is that we dodge a bullet. But it’s entirely possible that the bullets do start spraying our way.”