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You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/sep/17/scottish-independence-referendum-a-no-win-is-likely-but-not-certain
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| Scottish independence referendum: a no win is likely, but not certain | Scottish independence referendum: a no win is likely, but not certain |
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| Two days before the 2012 presidential election in France, an Ifop poll for Paris Match put the gap between François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy at four points. Hollande was seen as the clear favourite, and won the election by 3.5 points. | Two days before the 2012 presidential election in France, an Ifop poll for Paris Match put the gap between François Hollande and Nicolas Sarkozy at four points. Hollande was seen as the clear favourite, and won the election by 3.5 points. |
| If this were a normal election we probably wouldn’t say, based on current polls, that the outcome of tomorrow’s independence referendum in Scotland was too close to call. Three polls were released yesterday - all three had the no (to independence) vote ahead by four points. Fourteen polls have so far been released this month. The gap may have narrowed - significantly - but 12 of these polls have still shown no in the lead. | If this were a normal election we probably wouldn’t say, based on current polls, that the outcome of tomorrow’s independence referendum in Scotland was too close to call. Three polls were released yesterday - all three had the no (to independence) vote ahead by four points. Fourteen polls have so far been released this month. The gap may have narrowed - significantly - but 12 of these polls have still shown no in the lead. |
| While it’s clear that the no lead has shrunk, the underlying trends behind this movement appear to have now stabilised. Above all the gap between Better Together and Yes Scotland among women, while narrower, is showing a consistent and important lead for no. | While it’s clear that the no lead has shrunk, the underlying trends behind this movement appear to have now stabilised. Above all the gap between Better Together and Yes Scotland among women, while narrower, is showing a consistent and important lead for no. |
| Based on current figures, a no win is likely. | Based on current figures, a no win is likely. |
| There are at least three more polls expected before tomorrow’s vote. Among these, figures from Ipsos MORI will be particularly interesting as the firm is one of the few non-internet based pollsters, and hasn’t released a poll in a while. | There are at least three more polls expected before tomorrow’s vote. Among these, figures from Ipsos MORI will be particularly interesting as the firm is one of the few non-internet based pollsters, and hasn’t released a poll in a while. |
| In the meantime though, based on current figures across polls, a no win looks increasingly likely. Likely, not certain. The one factor driving uncertainty remains turnout. Polls ask respondents how sure they are of voting in the referendum. Based on these responses, a turnout well in excess of 80% is expected. This would be considerably higher than in any recent election. As a comparison, at the 2010 general election turnout was 63.8%, in Glasgow North East it was 49.1% . Polls analyse the past to interpret the present - it is extremely difficult to analyse the behaviour of those that have never voted, or haven’t done so in a long time. Because of this, sampling and weighting issues across polls cannot be ruled out - or more simply put, all the polls could be systematically wrong. | In the meantime though, based on current figures across polls, a no win looks increasingly likely. Likely, not certain. The one factor driving uncertainty remains turnout. Polls ask respondents how sure they are of voting in the referendum. Based on these responses, a turnout well in excess of 80% is expected. This would be considerably higher than in any recent election. As a comparison, at the 2010 general election turnout was 63.8%, in Glasgow North East it was 49.1% . Polls analyse the past to interpret the present - it is extremely difficult to analyse the behaviour of those that have never voted, or haven’t done so in a long time. Because of this, sampling and weighting issues across polls cannot be ruled out - or more simply put, all the polls could be systematically wrong. |
| Looking at betting markets, there’s about an 80% chance of a no win tomorrow, but if you were told there was a 20% chance of rain tomorrow, you would probably carry an umbrella. |