Scottish independence would bring Wales out of the margins

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/18/scottish-independence-wales-out-of-margins

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Whisper it quietly, but would Wales actually be better off if Scotland voted yes? That’s not what most Welsh politicians would have us believe. With the exception of Leanne Wood from Plaid Cymru, and occasional, more maverick voices such as the former Labour MP Lord Elystan Morgan and veteran councillor Ray Davies, the Welsh political class is united in calling for a Scottish no. This is not only because they believe that this would be best for Scotland, but because they are fearful of the consequences for Wales if the Scottish vote for independence.

Their argument appears to be that if Scotland departs then Wales would be an even more marginalised voice in a union that would become increasingly dominated by England. But given that England is already home to nearly 85% of the UK population, it is hard to see how Scottish independence would make a material difference to the level of Welsh marginalisation.

Wales is already very marginal. Indeed, the lack of importance accorded to Wales in UK politics has rarely been so cruelly exposed as during the current referendum campaign. For several years the Welsh first minister, Carwyn Jones, has made a series of thoughtful speeches arguing for a joined-up approach to constitutional reform across the UK. Yet despite his ostensible status as Labour’s most senior elected politician in Britain, his suggestions seem to have been completely ignored by Ed Miliband and his advisers, who have preferred to allow their “heavyweight” colleagues north of the border to do all the running – Scottish Labour politicians for whom it is always only about Scotland.

Jones is not alone in seeing his views ignored by his party leaders and utterly sidelined by his Scottish colleagues. The same is true for the Welsh Tory leader, Andrew RT Davies, as well as Kirsty Williams, the Welsh Liberal Democrat leader. All three Welsh leaders have argued consistently for the reform of the Barnett formula. Yet Messrs Cameron, Miliband and Clegg have now made a solemn “vow” – on the front page of a Scottish tabloid newspaper, no less – that Barnett will remain, apparently in perpetuity.

The Welsh interest in Barnett reform is easy to understand. Levels of public spending in Scotland and Wales are directly linked via a funding formula that ensures that per capita public spending is much higher in prosperous Scotland than in substantially poorer Wales. In 2009 the independent Holtham commission calculated that if devolved public services in Wales and Scotland were funded on the same basis used to allocate public spending within England, Wales would be £300m better off per annum whilst Scotland would see a cut of £4bn a year.

The extent and generosity of Scotland’s “Barnett bonus” is further underlined when one considers that if Wales received the same levels of public spending per capita as Scotland, then on 2012-13 figures Welsh public services would be boosted to the tune of £1.4bn a year – in Welsh terms a very large amount of money; it amounts to almost 10% of the annual budget of the Welsh government, which currently stands at around £15bn.

The relative treatment of Wales and Scotland under Barnett cannot be justified. Indeed, reforming the formula is stated as a long-term goal in the coalition agreement that underpins the current UK government. Yet during the course of the referendum campaign, Scottish pro-union politicians have managed to ensure that their parties have all pledged to retain Barnett.

There has apparently been no thought given to the impact of this on Wales. The sheer hypocrisy of those like Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling who seek to make a case for union on the grounds that it protects the weakest stands fully revealed. As does the powerlessness of the Welsh political class.

If Scotland votes yes, then the main barrier to a fairer funding deal for Wales would be removed. It may also be the case that having “lost” Scotland London politicians are minded to pay rather more attention to what their Welsh colleagues are saying. There are, of course, no guarantees that this would be the case. But given that they are currently being ignored, it might be no bad thing for Wales if we find ourselves on Friday morning inhabitants of a state that is about to be radically reconfigured.

• This article was commissioned after a suggestion in the ideas thread