Final poll of Scottish referendum campaign shows six-point lead for no

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/sep/18/final-poll-scottish-referendum-campaign

Version 0 of 1.

The campaign against Scottish independence appears to have edged ahead in the final poll of the referendum campaign, with the no campaign at 53% of decided voters compared with the yes group's 47%.

As unprecedented numbers of voters cast their votes on Thursday, Ipsos Mori reported a slight strengthening in the no campaign's lead. The same firm issued a poll on Wednesday night showing no ahead by only two percentage points, based on earlier field work.

Polling stations have been busy across Scotland with 97% of residents registered to take part in the referendum, and 95% of those polled by Ipsos saying they would vote. There has been a police presence at polling stations in some parts of Edinburgh, but there have been no reports of any disturbances.

In Westminster there are already signs of a backlash regardless of the result, with some Tory MPs complaining about the devolution offers made to Scotland if it votes no.

Alex Salmond, the Scottish National party leader and figurehead of the yes campaign, told reporters and supporters as he prepared to cast his vote: "We are in the hands of the people of Scotland and there is no safer place to be than in the hands of the Scottish people who can take their own future into their own hands.

"There is going to be huge enthusiasm all over Scotland," he said, adding that the level of interest in the small village where he lived was illustrated by the fact that an assembly hall was being used for voting rather than the usual smaller room to the building's side.

Salmond welcomed the support of the Wimbledon champion Andy Murray, who tweeted "Let's do this!" on Thursday morning, saying: "I hear that Andy Murray has hit another winner today, which is great news, and I think the message for Scotland is, let's do it now … It's a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and I think you can see it already from the number of people voting."

All the leading pollsters have now issued final polls suggesting either a four- or six-point lead for the no campaign, but Labour officials remained cautious, saying it was still unclear how undecided voters would break or what impact a high turnout might have. It is now thought that as few as 200,000 votes could be the difference.

The last Ipsos Mori poll shows 50% said they would vote no, 45% said they would vote yes and 4% were still undecided. Some 95% of Scots said they were certain to vote, including 90% of those aged 16-24.

In what is often a good predictor of the result, just under half (46%) of Scottish voters thought the Better Together campaign would win the referendum, compared with 30% who thought the pro-independence campaign would win, while 24% said they didn't know.

Just under six in 10 (58%) no voters said fear for the future if the no side lost was more important in deciding their vote than hope if their side won (at 36%). This compares with 80% of yes voters who said they would vote because they were hopeful for the future if their side won, while 16% of yes voters were acting more out of fear than hope.

Overall, 57% of Scots based their votes on hope more than fear, with 38% basing their vote more on fear if their side lost than hope if they won.

Majorities on both sides said they would base their vote more on practical consequences than feelings of national identity. Seven in ten (70%) of yes supporters based their vote more on practical consequences, and 78% of no supporters. Overall, 74% said they would base their vote on practical consequences, with 19% basing theirs more on national identity.

Gideon Skinner, head of political research at Ipsos Mori, said: "These results confirm the picture from other polls before polling day – the referendum looks extremely close, and although no seems to have a small lead much will depend on turnout on the day.

"Meanwhile, there is a clear difference in the motivations for voters on the two camps – yes voters saying they are motivated more by hope for the future if their side wins, while no voters say fear for the future if the no side loses has been more important to their vote."