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| New Zealand prepares to vote after 'strangest, dirtiest' election campaign | New Zealand prepares to vote after 'strangest, dirtiest' election campaign |
| (about 11 hours later) | |
| An election campaign labelled New Zealand's strangest, dirtiest and most dramatic, reaches a climax as voters go to the polls, though it may take days or weeks before a government is agreed. | An election campaign labelled New Zealand's strangest, dirtiest and most dramatic, reaches a climax as voters go to the polls, though it may take days or weeks before a government is agreed. |
| In the last month conventional policy arguments have been squeezed to the margins, with the ruling National party forced to face down revelations of links to a notorious attack-blogger that hogged headlines for a fortnight. | In the last month conventional policy arguments have been squeezed to the margins, with the ruling National party forced to face down revelations of links to a notorious attack-blogger that hogged headlines for a fortnight. |
| That was soon followed by allegations of deception over state surveillance from the NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and the journalist Glenn Greenwald. | That was soon followed by allegations of deception over state surveillance from the NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden and the journalist Glenn Greenwald. |
| In response, the National party leader and prime minister, John Key, maintained a consistent strategy of dismissing the allegations and attacking the messenger's motives and credibility. | In response, the National party leader and prime minister, John Key, maintained a consistent strategy of dismissing the allegations and attacking the messenger's motives and credibility. |
| Key has characterised both Nicky Hager, author of the book Dirty Politics, which draws on emails hacked from the venomous rightwing blogger Cameron Slater, and Greenwald, who arrived in New Zealand last week to expose contradictions in official positions on surveillance, as "conspiracy theorists". | Key has characterised both Nicky Hager, author of the book Dirty Politics, which draws on emails hacked from the venomous rightwing blogger Cameron Slater, and Greenwald, who arrived in New Zealand last week to expose contradictions in official positions on surveillance, as "conspiracy theorists". |
| In the short-term at least it has worked. National party support has dropped a point or two in most polls, but so has that of the main opposition Labour party. A Colmar Brunton poll for One News released on Thursday evening put National on 45%, Labour on 25% and their likely coalition partner, the Green party, on 12%. | |
| The political scientist Nigel Roberts, of Victoria University of Wellington, who has covered every New Zealand election since 1972, said the 2014 campaign was the strangest he had witnessed. | The political scientist Nigel Roberts, of Victoria University of Wellington, who has covered every New Zealand election since 1972, said the 2014 campaign was the strangest he had witnessed. |
| The Dirty Politics allegations, which were protracted by the hacker's dripfeed of material online and which led to a senior cabinet minister, Judith Collins, resigning, had the impact of an "ambush" on both major parties, Roberts said. "For the first couple of weeks in the campaign, National was seriously off-track and that was also denying Labour some breathing space. People weren't going to Labour to comment on policy questions, they were going to talk about Collins and dirty politics … so from that point of view the election was hijacked." | The Dirty Politics allegations, which were protracted by the hacker's dripfeed of material online and which led to a senior cabinet minister, Judith Collins, resigning, had the impact of an "ambush" on both major parties, Roberts said. "For the first couple of weeks in the campaign, National was seriously off-track and that was also denying Labour some breathing space. People weren't going to Labour to comment on policy questions, they were going to talk about Collins and dirty politics … so from that point of view the election was hijacked." |
| The parties that apparentlyprospered from the scandal were the smaller, non-establishment groups, such as New Zealand First and the Conservatives, one of which National may depend upon to rule after the vote. The Conservative party has been polling just below the 5% threshold required to enter parliament without winning an electorate seat, while NZ First looks certain to return, with the One News poll putting it on 8%. | The parties that apparentlyprospered from the scandal were the smaller, non-establishment groups, such as New Zealand First and the Conservatives, one of which National may depend upon to rule after the vote. The Conservative party has been polling just below the 5% threshold required to enter parliament without winning an electorate seat, while NZ First looks certain to return, with the One News poll putting it on 8%. |
| Led by Winston Peters, an alternately captivating and cantankerous evacuee from the National party, NZ First was ruled out as a potential partner by Key in the 2011 campaign, but this time round it has been courted by both sides. | Led by Winston Peters, an alternately captivating and cantankerous evacuee from the National party, NZ First was ruled out as a potential partner by Key in the 2011 campaign, but this time round it has been courted by both sides. |
| Peters is familiar as a potential kingmaker in New Zealand elections since the switch from first-past-the-post to mixed-member proportional representation in 1996. Post-election negotiations have given him secure government roles including treasurer and foreign minister. | Peters is familiar as a potential kingmaker in New Zealand elections since the switch from first-past-the-post to mixed-member proportional representation in 1996. Post-election negotiations have given him secure government roles including treasurer and foreign minister. |
| A paragon of common sense to supporters and a xenophobic sophist to critics, Peters, who is part Maori, is a "preternaturally charming old-stager", according to Jane Clifton, a political columnist for the weekly NZ Listener magazine. | A paragon of common sense to supporters and a xenophobic sophist to critics, Peters, who is part Maori, is a "preternaturally charming old-stager", according to Jane Clifton, a political columnist for the weekly NZ Listener magazine. |
| She said: "He's got natural charm and charisma, very quick witted, and he's pretty small-c conservative in his political leanings, with a default setting towards protectionism. He's what the National party used to be, in about the 60s and 70s." | She said: "He's got natural charm and charisma, very quick witted, and he's pretty small-c conservative in his political leanings, with a default setting towards protectionism. He's what the National party used to be, in about the 60s and 70s." |
| Peters would be more comfortable on a personal level forming a coalition with Labour, but any such deal is complicated by his distaste at the prospect of playing third fiddle to the Greens. He could even eschew both sides and sit his party on the crossbenches. | Peters would be more comfortable on a personal level forming a coalition with Labour, but any such deal is complicated by his distaste at the prospect of playing third fiddle to the Greens. He could even eschew both sides and sit his party on the crossbenches. |
| "I think his joy would be almost greater if, in doing a deal with National, he could make them jump through a whole lot of hoops, and give up a whole lot of stuff. That would humble it, because he's felt disrespected by John Key for a number of years," said Clifton. | "I think his joy would be almost greater if, in doing a deal with National, he could make them jump through a whole lot of hoops, and give up a whole lot of stuff. That would humble it, because he's felt disrespected by John Key for a number of years," said Clifton. |
| One party that has failed to enjoy a poll spike from the scandals is Internet-Mana. A strategic alliance between the Internet party founded by Kim Dotcom, the New Zealand based internet mogul the US wants to extradite on criminal copyright charges, and the leftwing indigenous-rights-focused Mana Movement, it is currently polling at 2% or less. | One party that has failed to enjoy a poll spike from the scandals is Internet-Mana. A strategic alliance between the Internet party founded by Kim Dotcom, the New Zealand based internet mogul the US wants to extradite on criminal copyright charges, and the leftwing indigenous-rights-focused Mana Movement, it is currently polling at 2% or less. |
| Internet-Mana may still make it to parliament, however, if Mana's leader, Hone Harawira, wins his seat, which would exempt the party from the threshold rule. | Internet-Mana may still make it to parliament, however, if Mana's leader, Hone Harawira, wins his seat, which would exempt the party from the threshold rule. |
| Kim Dotcom – who hosted the Moment of Truth event at Auckland town hall this week featuring Greenwald and, via internet links, Snowden and Julian Assange – is unable to stand for parliament as a non-citizen, so instead is "party visionary". The National party's re-election campaign revolves around two slogans, "Working for New Zealand" and "Team Key", encapsulating their twin selling points - stable, steady-as-she-goes economic growth and a popular leader. | Kim Dotcom – who hosted the Moment of Truth event at Auckland town hall this week featuring Greenwald and, via internet links, Snowden and Julian Assange – is unable to stand for parliament as a non-citizen, so instead is "party visionary". The National party's re-election campaign revolves around two slogans, "Working for New Zealand" and "Team Key", encapsulating their twin selling points - stable, steady-as-she-goes economic growth and a popular leader. |
| Key, a trader turned politician who combines a CEO-style leadership approach with a down-to-earth, sometimes goofy personal image, continues to rank by far the highest in preferred prime minister polling. The One News survey put him ahead in preferred prime minister polling at 43%, with his nearest rival, the Labour leader, David Cunliffe, on 12%. | Key, a trader turned politician who combines a CEO-style leadership approach with a down-to-earth, sometimes goofy personal image, continues to rank by far the highest in preferred prime minister polling. The One News survey put him ahead in preferred prime minister polling at 43%, with his nearest rival, the Labour leader, David Cunliffe, on 12%. |
| National has demonstrated a "gravity-defying nature" in the face of controversy for some time, said Clifton, and it is not just because of Labour in-fighting. "It just doesn't seem to matter what the scandal is, National's support base will quarantine it … but it's not all about a near-majority of people feeling positive about John Key. I think there's a small-c conservatism that follows something like the global financial crisis, which the commentariat might have underestimated." | National has demonstrated a "gravity-defying nature" in the face of controversy for some time, said Clifton, and it is not just because of Labour in-fighting. "It just doesn't seem to matter what the scandal is, National's support base will quarantine it … but it's not all about a near-majority of people feeling positive about John Key. I think there's a small-c conservatism that follows something like the global financial crisis, which the commentariat might have underestimated." |
| Polls close at 7pm local time (0800 BST) on Saturday, and early results are likely within a couple of hours. | Polls close at 7pm local time (0800 BST) on Saturday, and early results are likely within a couple of hours. |