Scottish referendum: poll suggests nation has voted against independence
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Version 0 of 1. The only poll of Scots after they have voted shows the no campaign leading with 54% compared to 46% for the yes camp, suggesting the nation has voted against independence. As millions nervously awaited the historic result, a survey by YouGov found an eight-point lead for no, after pollsters examined the way 800 people had voted by post and 1,828 people who made their decision at the ballot box. After the polls closed at 10pm, Peter Kellner, president of YouGov, decisively called the result for the no campaign, saying he was 99% certain that Scots had voted against independence. In an effort to head off a major revolt from within his own party, David Cameron will on Friday reportedly give a televised statement promising to "rebalance" the way the people of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are represented. Many Conservative backbenchers in England are angry at what they see as Cameron's complacency that risked the union and led him to offer "bribes" to the Scots to stay part of the union in the last day of the campaign. Shortly after people stopped voting, a large number of Tory and even a few Labour MPs questioned the decision of their party leaders to offer Scotland a package of devolution without discussing it in parliament or considering the needs of England. Downing Street has so far refused to say whether Cameron would back a new constitutional settlement for England. To placate his party, he will have to address the West Lothian question – why Scottish MPs are allowed to vote on English-only issues – and the Barnett formula – the Treasury mechanism that divides up funding between the four nations of the union. Piling pressure on Cameron on Thursday night, Boris Johnson, the London mayor, said Scottish MPs should no longer have a say on legislation that just affects England. He told Sky News: "Let's not give any more sauce to the goose until we've given some sauce to the gander." Liam Fox, a former-Conservative defence minister, also said the West Lothian question and the funding settlement between all UK nations would become "unavoidable" to address. Others to raise concerns included John Redwood, Claire Perry, Conor Burns, Andrew Percy, and Michael Fabricant. From Labour, Diane Abbott, a former shadow minister, and John Denham, a close adviser to Ed Miliband, said it would have to be considered. Scotland's first minister, Alex Salmond, will be residing overnight at his home in the north east of Aberdeenshire, rather than coming to one of the referendum counts nearby. The fact that the SNP leader will not be going to the count for the council area which encompasses his constituency was being seen by some observers as an indicator that he expected the yes side to lose the referendum and was limiting his exposure on Thursday night. Salmond is expected to go to Edinburgh early on Friday morning, according to SNP sources. However, Douglas Alexander, one of the most senior politicians leading the Better Together campaign, said the extraordinarily high turnout made the result very unpredictable. He said the decision had been "huge" and bigger than a general election. He told the BBC: "We have no experience ... You need to have humility at this time in the evening, but my sense in the constituency today was there were huge numbers of people coming out and voting no ... I've never experienced politics like this ... It has been an extraordinary thing." Experts said the turnout for the referendum is likely to be unusually high at more than 80% and reaching up to 90% in some areas, after an intense two years of political debate leading up to the poll. Turnout in Edinburgh has been confirmed at 89%. The Queen is said to be following the result closely and is expected to make a statement on Friday afternoon, whichever way the vote goes. Senior Labour sources said it was impossible to make any serious assessment until votes start to come in from Labour areas such as North Lanarkshire and Ayrshire in the early hours. However, Jim Murphy, another shadow cabinet member and key member of no camp, sounded a confident note. "To the extent there was any momentum ... it was in our direction. There was a quiet edging of public opinion towards us," he said. Yes campaigners dismissed the significance of the poll, with Natalie McGarry of Women for Independence, saying there was "still all to play for". "I'm not sure how scientific it is to be polling on the day, when many won't have cast their votes and made their final decision until later," she said. "We're here now at the count and this is the only poll that matters. In Dundee, Scottish National party MSP Shona Robison, said the polls have been close all the way through. "The poll that counts is the one that has taken place today. People who haven't voted before have today and they have voted yes. We're confident of a good result," she said. Although politicians refused to call the result for either side, currency traders appeared confident of a no vote. Sterling hit a new two-week high against the US dollar in the global foreign exchange markets after the YouGov polling data was released. Whichever way the vote falls, its closeness has caused a huge shock for Westminster politicians over the last two weeks and will lead to call for a change in the way politics is conducted. "We have become a divided nation and we will need quickly to heal those wounds," said Michael Moore, the former Scottish secretary. |