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For Many, a Nation That Seems Less Free From Moscow’s Dominance Than Ever For Many, a Nation That Seems Less Free From Moscow’s Dominance Than Ever
(about 3 hours later)
KIEV, Ukraine — Ukrainians have been promised sweeping change in the seven months since their collective anger chased the last president out of his mansion. KIEV, Ukraine — Ukrainians have been promised sweeping change in the seven months since their collective anger chased the last president out of his mansion.
The low-grade war against Russia and its proxies in the east would be brought to a close, with Ukraine kept whole. A new chapter in political and economic relations would be opened with Europe. A concerted effort to reform the government would begin by fighting pervasive corruption.The low-grade war against Russia and its proxies in the east would be brought to a close, with Ukraine kept whole. A new chapter in political and economic relations would be opened with Europe. A concerted effort to reform the government would begin by fighting pervasive corruption.
Last week, President Petro O. Poroshenko brought measures addressing each of these issues to Parliament on the same day.Last week, President Petro O. Poroshenko brought measures addressing each of these issues to Parliament on the same day.
The first two passed. The third failed. Mr. Poroshenko tried to present the occasion as a historic victory for Ukraine, leading the Parliament in a rousing version of “Ukraine Is Not Dead Yet,” the national anthem. He said the moment was Ukraine’s most important since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.The first two passed. The third failed. Mr. Poroshenko tried to present the occasion as a historic victory for Ukraine, leading the Parliament in a rousing version of “Ukraine Is Not Dead Yet,” the national anthem. He said the moment was Ukraine’s most important since independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.
But there is a sense both here and abroad that Ukraine is less independent from Moscow than ever. “Capitulation” is the adjective of choice among politicians critical of the government and independent analysts. But there is a sense both here and abroad that Ukraine is less independent from Moscow than ever. “Capitulation” is the word of choice among politicians critical of the government and independent analysts.
Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian leader, they say, got everything he wanted by attacking Ukraine overtly in Crimea and covertly in the southeast.Vladimir V. Putin, the Russian leader, they say, got everything he wanted by attacking Ukraine overtly in Crimea and covertly in the southeast.
The vague cease-fire terms in the southeast are likely to only freeze the conflict. It could leave Russia’s thuggish proxies running the area and create a permanent geographic Taser that Moscow could use to zap Ukraine at will, leaving it unstable and less than sovereign.The vague cease-fire terms in the southeast are likely to only freeze the conflict. It could leave Russia’s thuggish proxies running the area and create a permanent geographic Taser that Moscow could use to zap Ukraine at will, leaving it unstable and less than sovereign.
The association agreement with the European Union — described by its advocates as the catalyst for broad reform — has been delayed until the beginning of 2016 because of Russian objections, leaving its fate uncertain.The association agreement with the European Union — described by its advocates as the catalyst for broad reform — has been delayed until the beginning of 2016 because of Russian objections, leaving its fate uncertain.
“One cannot achieve peace by surrendering to the aggressor’s demands,” Oleh Tyahnybok, the head of the nationalist Svoboda Party, wrote in a blog post on Sunday. “No matter how much Putin threatens us with a full-scale aggression, we must not make concessions.”“One cannot achieve peace by surrendering to the aggressor’s demands,” Oleh Tyahnybok, the head of the nationalist Svoboda Party, wrote in a blog post on Sunday. “No matter how much Putin threatens us with a full-scale aggression, we must not make concessions.”
On Monday, both sides were supposedly strengthening the shaky cease-fire by drawing their forces even farther apart. The truce has held since Sept. 5, albeit with constant artillery or tank barrages.On Monday, both sides were supposedly strengthening the shaky cease-fire by drawing their forces even farther apart. The truce has held since Sept. 5, albeit with constant artillery or tank barrages.
Under a new memorandum announced Saturday in Minsk, Belarus, where the cease-fire talks have been held, military formations would be frozen as they were on Friday and heavy weapons pulled back 15 kilometers, or about nine miles, from that line.Under a new memorandum announced Saturday in Minsk, Belarus, where the cease-fire talks have been held, military formations would be frozen as they were on Friday and heavy weapons pulled back 15 kilometers, or about nine miles, from that line.
Andrei Lysenko, the Ukrainian military spokesman, said Monday that both sides were pulling artillery back from the front lines in Donbass, as the southeast region is called. Mr. Lysenko said the pro-Russian militants were not withdrawing heavy weaponry as quickly as the Ukrainians.Andrei Lysenko, the Ukrainian military spokesman, said Monday that both sides were pulling artillery back from the front lines in Donbass, as the southeast region is called. Mr. Lysenko said the pro-Russian militants were not withdrawing heavy weaponry as quickly as the Ukrainians.
Mr. Poroshenko has repeatedly defended the cease-fire as necessary in the face of a Russian military juggernaut that bolstered the separatist forces and left at least 3,000 Ukrainians dead by United Nations count.Mr. Poroshenko has repeatedly defended the cease-fire as necessary in the face of a Russian military juggernaut that bolstered the separatist forces and left at least 3,000 Ukrainians dead by United Nations count.
In a rare televised news conference with Ukrainian reporters after he returned from the United States, the president said the death toll among Ukrainian soldiers and civilians had dropped markedly because of the truce.In a rare televised news conference with Ukrainian reporters after he returned from the United States, the president said the death toll among Ukrainian soldiers and civilians had dropped markedly because of the truce.
“We cannot win the war in Donbass with military means; Russia won’t allow us to do that,” Mr. Poroshenko said on Sunday. The more Ukrainian soldiers who are deployed, “the more Russian soldiers will show up.”“We cannot win the war in Donbass with military means; Russia won’t allow us to do that,” Mr. Poroshenko said on Sunday. The more Ukrainian soldiers who are deployed, “the more Russian soldiers will show up.”
Russia still controls 350 kilometers, or about 217 miles, of the border and acts with impunity. It has sent repeated trucks across that it says carry humanitarian aid without any inspections on the Ukrainian side.Russia still controls 350 kilometers, or about 217 miles, of the border and acts with impunity. It has sent repeated trucks across that it says carry humanitarian aid without any inspections on the Ukrainian side.
Under the cease-fire protocol, Ukraine passed a temporary law on self-rule for the separatist regions. The law granted significant autonomy for three years, including electing local councils on Dec. 7, which in turn can establish a police force and courts. It preserves Russian as an official language and grants the regions the right to deepen ties with Russia.Under the cease-fire protocol, Ukraine passed a temporary law on self-rule for the separatist regions. The law granted significant autonomy for three years, including electing local councils on Dec. 7, which in turn can establish a police force and courts. It preserves Russian as an official language and grants the regions the right to deepen ties with Russia.
Although the temporary law addressed the “special status” for the Donbass region, Mr. Poroshenko has repeatedly denied that the region was given excessive independence. On Sunday, he even said that “the law’s name and meaning are very different.”Although the temporary law addressed the “special status” for the Donbass region, Mr. Poroshenko has repeatedly denied that the region was given excessive independence. On Sunday, he even said that “the law’s name and meaning are very different.”
It did not help matters that the “special status” law was passed without public debate, in a secret session of the Rada, or Parliament. A separate measure granted amnesty to separatist leaders not involved in war crimes.It did not help matters that the “special status” law was passed without public debate, in a secret session of the Rada, or Parliament. A separate measure granted amnesty to separatist leaders not involved in war crimes.
Opposition leaders, Western diplomats and other analysts all worry that the terms of the cease-fire protocol and the temporary law are too vague. It is not clear, for example, how the elections in coming months will be organized. Basic questions have not been answered, such as who will run government functions such as health services and education.Opposition leaders, Western diplomats and other analysts all worry that the terms of the cease-fire protocol and the temporary law are too vague. It is not clear, for example, how the elections in coming months will be organized. Basic questions have not been answered, such as who will run government functions such as health services and education.
What is clear is that Ukraine, teetering toward bankruptcy, must foot the estimated $8 billion bill for reconstruction.What is clear is that Ukraine, teetering toward bankruptcy, must foot the estimated $8 billion bill for reconstruction.
The government argues that the Ukrainian military was just outgunned.The government argues that the Ukrainian military was just outgunned.
But many Ukrainians believe that the military was plagued by corruption like much of the government. Recent press reports suggested that the military was selling heavy equipment to volunteer battalions.But many Ukrainians believe that the military was plagued by corruption like much of the government. Recent press reports suggested that the military was selling heavy equipment to volunteer battalions.
Slava Konstantinovsky has a shaved head, a wrestler’s build and a scrapbook of pictures showing him squiring Ukrainian beauties around in a Rolls-Royce. Among other things, he owns some of the most expensive restaurants in Kiev. But this summer he paid the costs for 15 volunteers and joined the fight himself.Slava Konstantinovsky has a shaved head, a wrestler’s build and a scrapbook of pictures showing him squiring Ukrainian beauties around in a Rolls-Royce. Among other things, he owns some of the most expensive restaurants in Kiev. But this summer he paid the costs for 15 volunteers and joined the fight himself.
“In fact, we don’t have an army, because for years army commanders at all levels were stealing from it,” said Mr. Konstantinovsky, who is running for Parliament. “The humiliating cease-fire is a result of Ukraine not having an army.”“In fact, we don’t have an army, because for years army commanders at all levels were stealing from it,” said Mr. Konstantinovsky, who is running for Parliament. “The humiliating cease-fire is a result of Ukraine not having an army.”
When members of the Poroshenko administration have been asked about corruption recently, many have noted that the new law establishing the anticorruption bureau would be passed soon. In addition, the need to mirror European Union practices that came with the association agreement would also inevitably alter business-as-usual practices.When members of the Poroshenko administration have been asked about corruption recently, many have noted that the new law establishing the anticorruption bureau would be passed soon. In addition, the need to mirror European Union practices that came with the association agreement would also inevitably alter business-as-usual practices.
Outside experts never gave much credibility to the anticorruption bureau, but they hoped the association agreement would force real change given Ukraine’s poor record for the past 23 years.Outside experts never gave much credibility to the anticorruption bureau, but they hoped the association agreement would force real change given Ukraine’s poor record for the past 23 years.
Parliament rejected the anticorruption bureau.Parliament rejected the anticorruption bureau.
More important, talks among the European Union, Ukraine and Russia ended by delaying changes under the full association agreement until the end of 2015. Russia had threatened stiff tariffs against Ukrainian goods, and is still threatening them if any part of the agreement takes effect early.More important, talks among the European Union, Ukraine and Russia ended by delaying changes under the full association agreement until the end of 2015. Russia had threatened stiff tariffs against Ukrainian goods, and is still threatening them if any part of the agreement takes effect early.
Mr. Poroshenko and other senior government officials vow that the delay will not stop reform. European officials deny publicly that Russia was able to change the agreement, but privately its diplomats despair that Moscow has wielded a veto over Ukraine’s future in so many ways.Mr. Poroshenko and other senior government officials vow that the delay will not stop reform. European officials deny publicly that Russia was able to change the agreement, but privately its diplomats despair that Moscow has wielded a veto over Ukraine’s future in so many ways.
The concern about Russia’s exerting such pressure on former Soviet dominions is not limited to Ukraine. Other neighbors, especially the Baltic states and Poland, worry, too. The main concern is that Russia will try to prove that Article 5, the provision in the NATO charter that guarantees collective defense, is worthless.The concern about Russia’s exerting such pressure on former Soviet dominions is not limited to Ukraine. Other neighbors, especially the Baltic states and Poland, worry, too. The main concern is that Russia will try to prove that Article 5, the provision in the NATO charter that guarantees collective defense, is worthless.
Aleksander Kwasniewski, a former Polish president, summarized the neighbors’ concerns in a recent speech here.Aleksander Kwasniewski, a former Polish president, summarized the neighbors’ concerns in a recent speech here.
He noted that the Soviet Union and then Russia have used the same national anthem for decades, changing the words but not the music. The words that first glorified Stalin were rewritten and then changed a third time, all by the same writer.He noted that the Soviet Union and then Russia have used the same national anthem for decades, changing the words but not the music. The words that first glorified Stalin were rewritten and then changed a third time, all by the same writer.
Mr. Kwasniewski sang a verse or two of each to illustrate the point, before issuing his own stark warning: “This country might change the words, the lyrics, the vocabulary, but it will never change the tune.”Mr. Kwasniewski sang a verse or two of each to illustrate the point, before issuing his own stark warning: “This country might change the words, the lyrics, the vocabulary, but it will never change the tune.”