Ed Miliband’s NHS pledge may force the Tories’ hand on its funding

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/sep/24/ed-miliband-nhs-funding-labour-force-tory-hands

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No sooner did Ed Miliband announce his cunning wheeze to raise more money for the NHS than health secretary Jeremy Hunt took to Twitter:

Spending actually went up £2.7bn in real terms last year alone. So Labour are promising significantly less than we have actually delivered.

Ooooh, he’s wrong. The £2.7bn was not adjusted for inflation so it is not a “real terms” increase.

This little Twitter spat, of itself, is not important. What is important is that Hunt was provoked into a silly, kneejerk reply. He felt he had to respond. It tells me that he’s worried.

Miliband’s speech wasn’t great, wrapped in florid pink and confusing to watch with all those people in the background. The pedestrian mentions of a meeting in the park with a young voter and the self-deprecation of being confused for a film star. Basic speechwriter’s stuff. And the visit to Watford hospital to watch the work of a struggling NHS trust – all there to make the man look in touch with the world he would govern.

Robin Hood taxes, mansion taxes, top rate taxpayers stung and fag taxes. Popular, redistributive and equitable. An army of nurses, healthcare assistants and doctors. Who is not going to vote for that? Well a rich bloke, in a mansion, smoking a cigar, with a private nurse might not, but the rest of us probably will.

Will £2.5bn be enough to do it all? Save the NHS? No, of course not. And it will take a couple of years to reorganise Health Education England and its clunky relationship with the universities to create more places for nurses and the like.

We know that two-thirds of acute NHS trusts have run up deficits that already total half-a-billion pounds this summer.

In the next financial year the NHS is looking at a £2bn black hole in its finances. By 2020 health spending needs to be £30bn more than it is today. Efficiency gains might get near a quarter of the deficit and that’s all.

That said, this was an important game changer of a speech. It is the recognition that the NHS is running out of money that is important. Something the Department of Health and Conservative central office have denied.

The recognition that the NHS needs more money is as valuable as the money itself.

Miliband has made a clever move. At the Tory conference, if the prime minister or Jeremy Hunt claims the NHS has had more money they will be skating on thin ice. A few pounds above flatline funding against 4% growth in demand has hobbled the service. Another five years of the same will cripple it.

They cannot tell the truth and say the NHS is properly funded and the future is secure. Miliband has forced their hand.

The economy and the NHS go hand in hand, and happen to be the two topics that will win or lose the next election.

Will Cameron say austerity has taken its toll and it is time to reward a patient and hardworking NHS with more funding? If he does we will have Miliband to thank.