Will Afghanistan’s new leader settle the country’s relations with the U.S.?
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Version 0 of 1. Outgoing Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai delivered a farewell address Tuesday in Kabul, panning U.S. policy in Afghanistan without once mentioning that more than 2,000 U.S. service members have been killed there since 2001 and more than $100 billion in U.S. money has flowed in from Washington, propping up Afghanistan’s ministries and security forces. The remarks continued a history of strained relations between Washington and Kabul, especially since the surge of tens of thousands of additional U.S. troops to Afghanistan beginning in late 2009 to target militant groups and give the Afghan military and police force time to grow and mature. There’s a new day coming, however: Ashraf Ghani, an economist who once worked at the World Bank, was selected Sunday as Afghanistan’s next president following a long, tense election process that threatened the country’s future. Both Ghani and his rival, Abdullah Abdullah, had said they would quickly sign a bilateral security agreement that will keep a force of about 9,800 U.S. military advisers in Afghanistan after 2014. The BSA has languished for a year because of Karzai’s refusal to sign, complicating U.S. military planning as commanders grappled with how to withdraw troops and equipment. The agreement is necessary to keep U.S. and other coalition troops after the end of the year, providing legal protections for them and a framework for operations. There are still questions over whether Afghanistan’s new government will remain unified, following a contentious elecion process that threatened a major political crisis. Abdullah is expected to assume a role as chief executive officer in the government, something akin to a prime minister. But both men still control militias, and it’s unclear what they will do should future disagreements arise. The Afghan Analysts Network, a think tank in Kabul, described the agreement this way: On appointments, there are apparent contradictions. The CEO’s duties include “providing advice and proposals” to the president on appointing and dismissing “senior government officials.” This sounds like the president has the last word. The document also states that the CEO is “under the authority of the President.” Apart from that one sentence, both the future president and CEO seem to be rather equal in their powers. There appears, for example, a 50:50 ‘power sharing’ deal on some of the major posts. The agreement commits the two men to “parity in the selection of personnel between the President and the CEO at the level of head of key security and economic institutions and independent directorates”. (AAN thought this could cover the ministries of defence, interior and finance, NDS, the Independent Directorate of Local Government, but there are many others, including the Commissions overseeing the Constitution and on Anti-Corruption). As to the National Security Council, the two teams will “be equally represented… at the leadership level” (two directors, rotating, or director and deputy?) and “equitably [ie fairly and impartially, not necessarily 50:50] represented at the membership level.” On appointments, there are apparent contradictions. The CEO’s duties include “providing advice and proposals” to the president on appointing and dismissing “senior government officials.” This sounds like the president has the last word. The document also states that the CEO is “under the authority of the President.” Apart from that one sentence, both the future president and CEO seem to be rather equal in their powers. There appears, for example, a 50:50 ‘power sharing’ deal on some of the major posts. The agreement commits the two men to “parity in the selection of personnel between the President and the CEO at the level of head of key security and economic institutions and independent directorates”. (AAN thought this could cover the ministries of defence, interior and finance, NDS, the Independent Directorate of Local Government, but there are many others, including the Commissions overseeing the Constitution and on Anti-Corruption). As to the National Security Council, the two teams will “be equally represented… at the leadership level” (two directors, rotating, or director and deputy?) and “equitably [ie fairly and impartially, not necessarily 50:50] represented at the membership level.” The inauguration is expected to occur next week. |