UK air strikes against Isis in Iraq: best-case and worst-case scenarios

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/26/air-strikes-isis-iraq-scenarios

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How much will Britain contribute?

Tornado fighter planes are expected to be involved in strikes in Iraq against Islamic State within hours of a Commons vote approving action. There are six Tornadoes based in Cyprus, and that is deemed by the Ministry of Defence to be a big enough force at this stage given the limited number of targets and the fact that the campaign is expected to be a lengthy one. They are being augmented by a River Joint surveillance plane, based in Qatar.

How essential is the UK force to the US?

The US force is large enough to conduct the air campaign alone. The involvement of the UK primarily provides diplomatic and political cover for the Obama administration: as in the Iraqi invasion in 2003, the US can point out that it is not acting alone but in a coalition with allies, including France, Saudi Arabia and Gulf states.

What are the risks for British forces?

Isis possesses anti-aircraft guns and shoulder-fired anti-aircraft missiles. They might get lucky. Or one of the Tornadoes might suffer from engine or some other technical problem and crash in Isis-held territory. There is always the danger, too, of special forces being captured.

What is the chance of mission creep?

Britain might yet opt to join the US in attacking Syria as well. But this would not necessarily require more British forces. At the end of the year, Reaper drones at present in Afghanistan could be redeployed over Iraq. The US has begun using ship-based cruise missiles. The UK has submarine-based missiles, but has none in the region at present. Both US and UK governments are adamant large numbers of ground troops will not be committed.

Can air power alone defeat Isis?

No. Air power alone seldom results in a comprehensive victory. Over the last few weeks, all the US air strikes have succeeded in doing is largely stopping the expansion of Isis. Apart from the vital Mosul dam – which Kurdish and Iraqi army forces retook with help from US planes – Isis basically still holds the same territory as it did at the start of US bombing.

In the end, defeat of Isis requires troops on the ground. Neither the US nor Britain wants to put combat troops back into Iraq, so they are relying on the Kurdish peshmerga and the Iraqi army to do the fighting on the ground – neither of which has shown any sign that they are capable.

Estimates of Islamic State strength range from 7,000 to 30,000. Iraq forces number about 250,000 and the peshmerga about 190,000. Despite US claims in 2011 that it was leaving Iraq with the country’s forces well-trained, they evaporated this summer when confronted by Isis.

Best-case scenarios

Air strikes contain Isis, creating space for regional states to work out a solution. Iraq’s forces, with the peshmerga, regain northern Iraq. The new Iraqi government works for Sunnis as well as Shia. In Syria, the Free Syrian Army takes control of the rebel-held area and reaches agreement with president Bashar al-Assad. A new government is formed and Assad goes. Only a little – if any – of this is likely to happen.

Worst-case scenarios

Iraq breaks up into three separate pieces – Kurds in the north, Sunnis in the centre and the Shias in the south. Isis retains control of the Sunni areas of Iraq as well as north-east Syria, and expands into Jordan. Iran becomes even more involved in the region. Turkey too is drawn in. The bombing by the US, Britain and France results in blowback that sees terrorist attacks in Britain, France and the US.