British aircraft return to skies of Iraq in hunt for jihadis

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/27/isis-airstrikes-iraq-islamic-state-raf-british

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Shortly after breakfast on Saturday, two Tornado GR4 bombers swept down a runway on the southernmost point of the island of Cyprus and climbed eastwards, en route to delivering Britain's opening salvo in its third conflict in Iraq in 25 years.

From there, their payloads laden with laser-guided missiles capable of hitting moving targets, the pair streaked above the Mediterranean, most likely hitting landfall in Turkey's Hatay province. Although able to fly faster than the speed of sound, the pair of British bombers would at this stage possibly be travelling at around 400mph to conserve fuel, at a slower speed than a commercial aircraft. The Tornados are then believed to have circumvented Syrian airspace, hugging the Turkish border, before swinging south into northern Iraq and striking targets within the "caliphate" designated by Islamic State (Isis).

The journey is about 550 miles out from Cyprus, even before the aircraft engage in bombing runs. The role of an RAF Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft in Saturday's first UK attack against Isis was critical: the Tornado, for all its hi-tech weaponry and agility, is restricted to a range of 870 miles.

Their sortie marked Britain's first act of aggression in Iraq since UK forces withdrew from Basra, officially in May 2011, closing a profoundly controversial eight-year campaign that resulted in the deaths of 179 British troops and left, according to one study, almost 500,000 dead from war-related causes.

The RAF aircrew involved in the UK's inaugural bombing raid against Isis not only know the terrain well, having conducted reconnaissance missions over the territory for six weeks, but were also able to call on a generous intelligence database of Isis targets, assiduously compiled over the preceding months by a clutch of sources, including special forces, security services and, more recently, British ground controllers whose role is to help the UK aircraft locate targets.

In addition, an RAF Rivet Joint spy plane has been flying surveillance missions from al-Udeid airbase in Qatar to eavesdrop, from a height of up to 15,200m, on communications between militants.

The combat operation was directed from the Qatari base, shared by the British and US. Although the air operations against Isis are US-led, in direct control throughout the mission was the RAF's top commander for the Middle East and Afghanistan, Air Commodore Al Gillespie, 45. He took over control of the UK's use of military air power in the area of more than eight million square miles last December.

Collectively, the intelligence sources at Gillespie's disposal offer the Tornado crew a comprehensive breakdown of Isis infrastructure and force deployment, many of which have been hit by weeks of US air strikes already.

At least 160 Isis military vehicles are believed to have been destroyed as well as 21 weapons systems before Saturday's UK intervention.

The Tornado GR4 jets, capable of reaching 1,490mph, are thought to be equipped with Paveway IV bombs, laser-guided devices that have been used by British forces in Afghanistan. The Ministry of Defence confirmed the two aircraft were to be used in "an attack role", if "appropriate targets" were identified, although hours later the ministry officials revealed that no targets had been located.

Despite access to such precision technology, the coalition will have accepted that civilian casualties are inevitable, but also will be desperately keen to minimise such deaths. Not only will a significant and consistent death toll drain UK public support for air strikes, but could dissuade potential other countries from joining the international coalition against Isis.

Equally perturbing, according to experts, is the impact that widespread civilian casualties will have on bolstering or creating local support for Isis, while doubling as a propaganda tool to recruit fresh foreign fighters or even inspire a UK attack by a British-based fanatic. An intelligence priority is identifying Isis targets protected by human shields.

So far, it is unclear how many civilian casualties have been killed in the coalition air strikes, which began on 8 August, although last Tuesday Syrian activists reported at least 10 civilians were killed by the US's opening targets on Syria, claims later denied by the Pentagon. The British pilots involved in the first sorties above Iraq will be targeting an enemy equipped with anti-aircraft capability, but in truth there is little risk of being shot down.

The anti-air artillery controlled by Isis, usually mounted on trucks or, less accurately, shoulder-fired missiles, have failed to inflict a hit on the scores of US sorties against the organisation so far. US defence sources have indicated that Isis anti-air guns instead opt to target Predator drones, a slow, low-flying and poorly manoeuvrable plane.

The biggest risk is technical malfunction. The prospect of one of the Tornados suffering engine malfunction or another fundamental technical glitch and crashing in Isis-held territory offers the prospect – a British pilot filmed and beheaded – that UK defence officials would rather not countenance.

Although David Cameron has ruled out committing British ground troops to the region – during the invasion of Iraq 46,000 British troops and other military personnel were committed – there are also UK special forces in situ in Iraq along with Kurdistan and auxiliary units in Jordan.

These could become involved in potential hostage rescue attempts or operations to locate and target individual Isis commanders or assist in pinpointing high-value individuals belonging to other extremist groups such as Khorasan, a division of al-Qaida based in Syria.