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Birth of a Mugabe dynasty in Zimbabwe? | Birth of a Mugabe dynasty in Zimbabwe? |
(about 9 hours later) | |
The birth of a dynasty is not an easy thing to predict. But many Zimbabweans now seem preoccupied by the tantalising possibility that the Mugabes are seeking to join the list - admittedly a shrinking list - of families who have managed to pass the reins of power across the dinner table. | The birth of a dynasty is not an easy thing to predict. But many Zimbabweans now seem preoccupied by the tantalising possibility that the Mugabes are seeking to join the list - admittedly a shrinking list - of families who have managed to pass the reins of power across the dinner table. |
President Robert Mugabe is 90. His second wife, Grace, is 49. | President Robert Mugabe is 90. His second wife, Grace, is 49. |
Succession speculation has been a constant theme for years in Zimbabwe, but Grace Mugabe has only recently emerged as a possible contender. | Succession speculation has been a constant theme for years in Zimbabwe, but Grace Mugabe has only recently emerged as a possible contender. |
Outsiders are likely to have heard of the president's former secretary in exclusively dubious terms - for her allegedly extravagant shopping habits; for the incident when she punched a British journalist in Hong Kong; and other alleged excesses. | Outsiders are likely to have heard of the president's former secretary in exclusively dubious terms - for her allegedly extravagant shopping habits; for the incident when she punched a British journalist in Hong Kong; and other alleged excesses. |
Zimbabwe's state media, by contrast, have sought to highlight her devotion to charity work. | Zimbabwe's state media, by contrast, have sought to highlight her devotion to charity work. |
The notion of a "President Grace" first gained currency in August when Mrs Mugabe - a political novice - was unexpectedly endorsed as the next leader of the governing Zanu-PF's Women's League - a powerful role - to be confirmed at the party's congress in December. | The notion of a "President Grace" first gained currency in August when Mrs Mugabe - a political novice - was unexpectedly endorsed as the next leader of the governing Zanu-PF's Women's League - a powerful role - to be confirmed at the party's congress in December. |
Fuel was added to the fire this month when the first lady became Dr Mugabe - awarded a PhD in sociology just two months after enrolling at the University of Zimbabwe, and with her thesis curiously absent from the institution's online archives. | Fuel was added to the fire this month when the first lady became Dr Mugabe - awarded a PhD in sociology just two months after enrolling at the University of Zimbabwe, and with her thesis curiously absent from the institution's online archives. |
When I rang up Zanu-PF's spokesman Rugare Gumbo for his analysis of Mrs Mugabe's embryonic political career, it quickly became clear that the topic was an uncomfortable one. | When I rang up Zanu-PF's spokesman Rugare Gumbo for his analysis of Mrs Mugabe's embryonic political career, it quickly became clear that the topic was an uncomfortable one. |
"Please no... I'm not answering anything related to that... Come on, you can't ask me why not," said Mr Gumbo rather briskly. | "Please no... I'm not answering anything related to that... Come on, you can't ask me why not," said Mr Gumbo rather briskly. |
So what is going on? | So what is going on? |
There are - appropriately enough for such a tale of palace intrigue - multiple theories. | There are - appropriately enough for such a tale of palace intrigue - multiple theories. |
'Major miscalculation' | 'Major miscalculation' |
The most down-to-earth analysis holds that Mrs Mugabe has no chance of being president, and is being used by one faction within Zanu-PF. | The most down-to-earth analysis holds that Mrs Mugabe has no chance of being president, and is being used by one faction within Zanu-PF. |
"It's very easy to explain. She's been brought in as a means to stop Joyce Mujuru by any means," said the veteran political commentator Ibbo Mandaza. | "It's very easy to explain. She's been brought in as a means to stop Joyce Mujuru by any means," said the veteran political commentator Ibbo Mandaza. |
Vice-President Mujuru is seen as a leading contender to succeed President Mugabe. | Vice-President Mujuru is seen as a leading contender to succeed President Mugabe. |
The theory goes that her long-standing rival, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is promoting Mrs Mugabe as a short-term ploy to sideline Mrs Mujuru. | The theory goes that her long-standing rival, Emmerson Mnangagwa, is promoting Mrs Mugabe as a short-term ploy to sideline Mrs Mujuru. |
"When her husband goes, that's the end of her political career if there's such a career at all," said Mr Mandaza, blithely dismissing the notion of a Mugabe dynasty. | |
The next theory is that President Mugabe is promoting his wife primarily in order to keep all the Zanu-PF factions off-balance, and to strengthen his own position. | The next theory is that President Mugabe is promoting his wife primarily in order to keep all the Zanu-PF factions off-balance, and to strengthen his own position. |
The rise of Grace Mugabe | |
Dewa Mavhinga, from Human Rights Watch, believes the president has made a serious mistake by bringing in someone with no political pedigree whatsoever. | Dewa Mavhinga, from Human Rights Watch, believes the president has made a serious mistake by bringing in someone with no political pedigree whatsoever. |
"It shows that President Mugabe doesn't trust anyone around him. I think he was under pressure to control the factions and extend his own stay in office, but it was a major miscalculation and exposed him for the first time if you see how the factions are now fighting openly in the media," said Mr Mavhinga. | "It shows that President Mugabe doesn't trust anyone around him. I think he was under pressure to control the factions and extend his own stay in office, but it was a major miscalculation and exposed him for the first time if you see how the factions are now fighting openly in the media," said Mr Mavhinga. |
But there is another, less intrigue-driven analysis of Mrs Mugabe's abrupt arrival on the political stage. | But there is another, less intrigue-driven analysis of Mrs Mugabe's abrupt arrival on the political stage. |
Simba Makoni, a former Zanu-PF minister who ran for the presidency as an independent against Mr Mugabe in 2008, believes people are too quick to reject the possibility of a dynasty. | Simba Makoni, a former Zanu-PF minister who ran for the presidency as an independent against Mr Mugabe in 2008, believes people are too quick to reject the possibility of a dynasty. |
"Grace is poised to lead the Women's League... in December. That is a given. And my hunch is she is not going to end there, realising how easy it has been for her to get to there in such a short time," said Mr Makoni. | "Grace is poised to lead the Women's League... in December. That is a given. And my hunch is she is not going to end there, realising how easy it has been for her to get to there in such a short time," said Mr Makoni. |
"So I would say watch this space - there will be more happening." | "So I would say watch this space - there will be more happening." |
It is tempting to argue that a dynasty is an expression of political power - proof that President Mugabe still has the authority to impose his will on Zanu-PF and Zimbabwe. | It is tempting to argue that a dynasty is an expression of political power - proof that President Mugabe still has the authority to impose his will on Zanu-PF and Zimbabwe. |
But you could argue the exact opposite - that here is a man who, after three decades in power, can trust no-one outside his immediate family. | But you could argue the exact opposite - that here is a man who, after three decades in power, can trust no-one outside his immediate family. |
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