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| The Tories at war: troublemakers, egotists and backstabbers | The Tories at war: troublemakers, egotists and backstabbers |
| (about 21 hours later) | |
| As with so many things, it’s ultimately Margaret Thatcher’s fault. Who else is there to blame for the state of the Tory Party gathered this week in Birmingham: fixated on the issue of Europe, edging into ideological zealotry and only ever a few steps away from turning on its leader? After all, this behaviour only really took root in Thatcher’s reign, and never really went away. | As with so many things, it’s ultimately Margaret Thatcher’s fault. Who else is there to blame for the state of the Tory Party gathered this week in Birmingham: fixated on the issue of Europe, edging into ideological zealotry and only ever a few steps away from turning on its leader? After all, this behaviour only really took root in Thatcher’s reign, and never really went away. |
| A handful of people are already jostling to be the next leader. Malcontents say they yearn for “genuine Conservative policies”, as if freezing all working-age benefits and privatising the NHS were nowhere near enough. Meanwhile, activists desert in their droves to Ukip, two MPs have now decided to follow suit and more may follow. | A handful of people are already jostling to be the next leader. Malcontents say they yearn for “genuine Conservative policies”, as if freezing all working-age benefits and privatising the NHS were nowhere near enough. Meanwhile, activists desert in their droves to Ukip, two MPs have now decided to follow suit and more may follow. |
| So what is going on? Part of the answer lies in Conservative jitters about the next election. Over the weekend, the former Tory donor Michael Ashcroft released polling he said pointed to a “comfortable” majority for Labour in 2015. According to his figures, only 63% of people who voted Tory in 2010 are minded to do so again, and half the people who have deserted the party will support Ukip. If true, this picture is dire – confirming the idea that the Conservatives are now locked into long-term decline. | So what is going on? Part of the answer lies in Conservative jitters about the next election. Over the weekend, the former Tory donor Michael Ashcroft released polling he said pointed to a “comfortable” majority for Labour in 2015. According to his figures, only 63% of people who voted Tory in 2010 are minded to do so again, and half the people who have deserted the party will support Ukip. If true, this picture is dire – confirming the idea that the Conservatives are now locked into long-term decline. |
| To some extent, this is also the Tory version of a story that is also eating away at Labour: of the demise of politics-as-usual, increasing public cynicism, and the end of a world in which most people can be identified as supporters of one of the “main” parties – something seen in Scotland, and in the relentless rise of Nigel Farage’s party. Faced with a mounting existential crisis, and filled with self-loathing about being in coalition with the Lib Dems, Conservatives are clearly tense and fractious. And there are vivid personalities at work, worthy of a soap opera. Boris Johnson, that walking embodiment of politics-as-showbiz, is on his way back to parliament, set on the top Tory job. Theresa May also clearly fancies her chances. So, apparently, does George Osborne. And meanwhile, the supporting cast offer no end of colour – from the former I’m a Celebrity hopeful Nadine Dorries, to John “The Vulcan” Redwood, and on to Brooks Newmark, the unfortunate Tory junior minister questionably entrapped by the Sunday Mirror, as he exposed himself on WhatsApp while wearing paisley pyjamas. | To some extent, this is also the Tory version of a story that is also eating away at Labour: of the demise of politics-as-usual, increasing public cynicism, and the end of a world in which most people can be identified as supporters of one of the “main” parties – something seen in Scotland, and in the relentless rise of Nigel Farage’s party. Faced with a mounting existential crisis, and filled with self-loathing about being in coalition with the Lib Dems, Conservatives are clearly tense and fractious. And there are vivid personalities at work, worthy of a soap opera. Boris Johnson, that walking embodiment of politics-as-showbiz, is on his way back to parliament, set on the top Tory job. Theresa May also clearly fancies her chances. So, apparently, does George Osborne. And meanwhile, the supporting cast offer no end of colour – from the former I’m a Celebrity hopeful Nadine Dorries, to John “The Vulcan” Redwood, and on to Brooks Newmark, the unfortunate Tory junior minister questionably entrapped by the Sunday Mirror, as he exposed himself on WhatsApp while wearing paisley pyjamas. |
| Are even high-profile Tories now rattled? A senior Conservative close to the prime minister is at pains to sound level-headed and guardedly optimistic. People in politics, he says, too often oscillate between “panic and complacency, and it’s never wise to spend too long in either state of mind”. The current strife, he assures me, is just the kind of thing that happens to Britain’s big parties. The two Ukip defectors (so far) have come to a “rigid view of the prime minister and what they could achieve in the Conservative party”, and decided instead to leave and join “an insurgent movement”. This is complicated by the fact that all over the country, Ukip blurs into the Tory party at large: “There are people in Conservative party circles who will have friends who voted Ukip in the European elections … they’re at the same golf club or they have friends and neighbours in common.” | Are even high-profile Tories now rattled? A senior Conservative close to the prime minister is at pains to sound level-headed and guardedly optimistic. People in politics, he says, too often oscillate between “panic and complacency, and it’s never wise to spend too long in either state of mind”. The current strife, he assures me, is just the kind of thing that happens to Britain’s big parties. The two Ukip defectors (so far) have come to a “rigid view of the prime minister and what they could achieve in the Conservative party”, and decided instead to leave and join “an insurgent movement”. This is complicated by the fact that all over the country, Ukip blurs into the Tory party at large: “There are people in Conservative party circles who will have friends who voted Ukip in the European elections … they’re at the same golf club or they have friends and neighbours in common.” |
| Some Tories have tended to see Ukip as an essentially well-meaning Conservative-party-in-exile – but with the latest defections, Ukip’s approach now looks “practised and lethal”, explicitly aimed at denying the Conservatives a majority at the next election. “It has crossed the line,” says the senior Tory. “Tolerance for it has diminished dramatically.” It’s perhaps telling, though, that he draws frequent comparisons with the Labour party in the 1980s, when that party was in danger of eating itself. | Some Tories have tended to see Ukip as an essentially well-meaning Conservative-party-in-exile – but with the latest defections, Ukip’s approach now looks “practised and lethal”, explicitly aimed at denying the Conservatives a majority at the next election. “It has crossed the line,” says the senior Tory. “Tolerance for it has diminished dramatically.” It’s perhaps telling, though, that he draws frequent comparisons with the Labour party in the 1980s, when that party was in danger of eating itself. |
| What of Boris Johnson, and all that leadership manoeuvring? “Normally, you only have a leadership problem if you have a candidate in place capable of saying ‘I told you so’ or ‘If only’,” he says. Neither Boris, nor Theresa May, nor George Osborne fit that description – for the moment, at least. “Boris is difficult because he’s a big personality anyway,” he says. “But Boris knows that his future prospects are tied very strongly to being seen to pitch in and secure a victory this time round. Anyone who thought that he didn’t want the job … well, it’s transparent. But ambition’s not a crime.” | What of Boris Johnson, and all that leadership manoeuvring? “Normally, you only have a leadership problem if you have a candidate in place capable of saying ‘I told you so’ or ‘If only’,” he says. Neither Boris, nor Theresa May, nor George Osborne fit that description – for the moment, at least. “Boris is difficult because he’s a big personality anyway,” he says. “But Boris knows that his future prospects are tied very strongly to being seen to pitch in and secure a victory this time round. Anyone who thought that he didn’t want the job … well, it’s transparent. But ambition’s not a crime.” |
| That may be true, but there is something about the Conservative party – or certainly, about the public schoolies who once again command it – that often turns mere ambition into a strident, desperate quest for glory, as if posh men rising to the top represents the natural order of things. | That may be true, but there is something about the Conservative party – or certainly, about the public schoolies who once again command it – that often turns mere ambition into a strident, desperate quest for glory, as if posh men rising to the top represents the natural order of things. |
| While at university, Michael Heseltine is said to have written his life-plan on the back of an envelope as follows: “by 25, become a millionaire; by 35, an MP; by 45, a minister; by 55, Downing Street”. David Cameron once said he wanted to be prime minister because he thought he’d be “good at it”. Couple this with a tendency to cliquiness arguably borne of the public school dorm and the Oxford Union, and you have a recipe for ego-driven instability – not least when the Tories are desperately looking for someone to make them feel better about themselves. | While at university, Michael Heseltine is said to have written his life-plan on the back of an envelope as follows: “by 25, become a millionaire; by 35, an MP; by 45, a minister; by 55, Downing Street”. David Cameron once said he wanted to be prime minister because he thought he’d be “good at it”. Couple this with a tendency to cliquiness arguably borne of the public school dorm and the Oxford Union, and you have a recipe for ego-driven instability – not least when the Tories are desperately looking for someone to make them feel better about themselves. |
| They may yet defy all the maths and win a majority next year. For all the doom-laden Tory polling, Labour’s lead remains slim. A lot of Conservatives sincerely believe that the economic recovery has changed the game, and nervousness about Ed Miliband will sooner or later kick in. In Australian strategist Lynton Crosby, they have someone who will endlessly target any Labour weakness. | They may yet defy all the maths and win a majority next year. For all the doom-laden Tory polling, Labour’s lead remains slim. A lot of Conservatives sincerely believe that the economic recovery has changed the game, and nervousness about Ed Miliband will sooner or later kick in. In Australian strategist Lynton Crosby, they have someone who will endlessly target any Labour weakness. |
| But even this view of the Tory future has its limits. By 2017, the Conservatives are pledged to somehow renegotiate Britain’s place in the EU and hold an in/out referendum. At that point, their current ructions may well look like playground stuff; mere skirmishes, in advance of a party finally tearing itself apart. | But even this view of the Tory future has its limits. By 2017, the Conservatives are pledged to somehow renegotiate Britain’s place in the EU and hold an in/out referendum. At that point, their current ructions may well look like playground stuff; mere skirmishes, in advance of a party finally tearing itself apart. |
| Mavericks, mates, malcontents: a guide to the factions in the Tory ranks | Mavericks, mates, malcontents: a guide to the factions in the Tory ranks |
| Key | Key |
| T = Hardcore Tory traditionalist | T = Hardcore Tory traditionalist |
| M = Vague moderniser | M = Vague moderniser |
| PT = Prodigious tweeter | PT = Prodigious tweeter |
| ES = Eurosceptic | ES = Eurosceptic |
| E = Etonian | E = Etonian |
| FOC = Friend of Cameron | FOC = Friend of Cameron |
| FOB = Friend of Boris | FOB = Friend of Boris |
| FOG = Friend of George | FOG = Friend of George |
| DNAF = Doesn’t need any friends | DNAF = Doesn’t need any friends |
| Defectors, real and potential | Defectors, real and potential |
| Douglas Carswell M, ES, PT | Douglas Carswell M, ES, PT |
| MP for Clacton. Supposedly was locked into long feud with Cameron, shorthanded as “DC versus DC”. Was once advised by the PM – in front of a packed House of Commons – to “get a sense of humour”. Had last laugh by switching to Ukip in August and resigning from Commons, sparking byelection due on 9 October. | MP for Clacton. Supposedly was locked into long feud with Cameron, shorthanded as “DC versus DC”. Was once advised by the PM – in front of a packed House of Commons – to “get a sense of humour”. Had last laugh by switching to Ukip in August and resigning from Commons, sparking byelection due on 9 October. |
| Mark Reckless M, ES, PT | Mark Reckless M, ES, PT |
| Gloriously named MP for Rochester and Strood and close pal of Carswell. Claims that Cameron “has had his chance” and not kept promises on immigration, deficit and political reform. Switched to Ukip last week and resigned from Commons, sparking byelection with date TBC. | Gloriously named MP for Rochester and Strood and close pal of Carswell. Claims that Cameron “has had his chance” and not kept promises on immigration, deficit and political reform. Switched to Ukip last week and resigned from Commons, sparking byelection with date TBC. |
| Chris Kelly ES | Chris Kelly ES |
| MP for Dudley South, standing down in 2015. In 2011, rebelled against Tory leadership in big Commons vote; PM reportedly told him he could “bloody well forget about being a minister”. Has not switched to Ukip yet, but Tory HQ said to be “incredibly concerned that he might”. Go on, lad! | MP for Dudley South, standing down in 2015. In 2011, rebelled against Tory leadership in big Commons vote; PM reportedly told him he could “bloody well forget about being a minister”. Has not switched to Ukip yet, but Tory HQ said to be “incredibly concerned that he might”. Go on, lad! |
| Daniel Hannan M, ES, PT | Daniel Hannan M, ES, PT |
| Tory MEP; until recently, in close political double act, played role of Keith Richards to Carswell’s Jagger. Also friend of Reckless. This week tweeted: “I won’t be joining Ukip, but the Tories really ought to be talking to them.” Should be watched closely, nonetheless. | Tory MEP; until recently, in close political double act, played role of Keith Richards to Carswell’s Jagger. Also friend of Reckless. This week tweeted: “I won’t be joining Ukip, but the Tories really ought to be talking to them.” Should be watched closely, nonetheless. |
| Leadership contenders | Leadership contenders |
| Boris Johnson E, M | Boris Johnson E, M |
| London Mayor and dead-cert MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip who, says his sister Rachel, wants to be “world king”. Deadly rivalry with Cameron dates back to Eton – where, according to one who knows, “Boris was lower-upper-middle, while Dave was unambiguously upper-upper-middle”. Worth a lifelong feud over, eh? | London Mayor and dead-cert MP for Uxbridge and South Ruislip who, says his sister Rachel, wants to be “world king”. Deadly rivalry with Cameron dates back to Eton – where, according to one who knows, “Boris was lower-upper-middle, while Dave was unambiguously upper-upper-middle”. Worth a lifelong feud over, eh? |
| Theresa May M, DNAF | Theresa May M, DNAF |
| Home secretary. Widely tipped as next leader. Rumours suggest Cameron has resolved to stop her. Apparently has frosty relations with PM and his inner circle – because, as one former cabinet colleague puts it: “She’s not a bloke, and she didn’t go to Eton.” | Home secretary. Widely tipped as next leader. Rumours suggest Cameron has resolved to stop her. Apparently has frosty relations with PM and his inner circle – because, as one former cabinet colleague puts it: “She’s not a bloke, and she didn’t go to Eton.” |
| George Osborne M | George Osborne M |
| Chancellor, said to be Cameron’s favoured successor. Once seen as hopeless bet for leadership, but economic recovery has boosted chances. Was said to have talked up May’s leadership ambitions, so as to cunningly do her down. No, us neither. | Chancellor, said to be Cameron’s favoured successor. Once seen as hopeless bet for leadership, but economic recovery has boosted chances. Was said to have talked up May’s leadership ambitions, so as to cunningly do her down. No, us neither. |
| Sajid Javid M, PT | Sajid Javid M, PT |
| Recently promoted culture secretary. Hyped up as future leader, perhaps too over-excitedly, because his dad arrived in the UK from Pakistan with £1 to his name, and Javid WENT TO A COMPREHENSIVE SCHOOL. | Recently promoted culture secretary. Hyped up as future leader, perhaps too over-excitedly, because his dad arrived in the UK from Pakistan with £1 to his name, and Javid WENT TO A COMPREHENSIVE SCHOOL. |
| Elizabeth Truss M | Elizabeth Truss M |
| Environment secretary. Wild card. Raised in leftwing family, but reportedly fancies herself as the new Margaret Thatcher. WENT TO A COMPREHENSIVE SCHOOL TOO. | Environment secretary. Wild card. Raised in leftwing family, but reportedly fancies herself as the new Margaret Thatcher. WENT TO A COMPREHENSIVE SCHOOL TOO. |
| Renegades, mavericks and troublemakers | Renegades, mavericks and troublemakers |
| David Davis DNAF | David Davis DNAF |
| State-educated, council-estate raised MP who served in territorial SAS and was Cameron’s closest rival in leadership election of 2005. Never shy about having a pop when PM screws up, eg “Please – no more Old Etonian advisers” (May 2013). May yet stand for leadership again. | State-educated, council-estate raised MP who served in territorial SAS and was Cameron’s closest rival in leadership election of 2005. Never shy about having a pop when PM screws up, eg “Please – no more Old Etonian advisers” (May 2013). May yet stand for leadership again. |
| Owen Paterson T, ES | Owen Paterson T, ES |
| Gruff Thatcherite appointed by Cameron as environment minister, then sacked: whispers suggested he told PM he was “making a big mistake”. Now says Cameron could well lose next election, unless he goes for “genuine Conservative policies”, ie sending welfare claimants to Botany Bay etc. | Gruff Thatcherite appointed by Cameron as environment minister, then sacked: whispers suggested he told PM he was “making a big mistake”. Now says Cameron could well lose next election, unless he goes for “genuine Conservative policies”, ie sending welfare claimants to Botany Bay etc. |
| Liam Fox T, ES | Liam Fox T, ES |
| Proper right-winger and former leadership contender who resigned as defence secretary following rum allegations about self-styled “adviser” who accompanied him on foreign trips. Has accused Cameron of “dangerous complacency” on Ukip. | Proper right-winger and former leadership contender who resigned as defence secretary following rum allegations about self-styled “adviser” who accompanied him on foreign trips. Has accused Cameron of “dangerous complacency” on Ukip. |
| Nadine Dorries T, DNAF | Nadine Dorries T, DNAF |
| State-educated daughter of a bus driver with Ukip-esque views, who unabashedly revels in PM’s pain and loathes toff cliques who run party. Weirdly, daughter is girlfriend of possible future UKip defector Chris Kelly; she has advised Kelly not to jump ship “if he ever wants another roast dinner from me again” (amazingly, this is true). | State-educated daughter of a bus driver with Ukip-esque views, who unabashedly revels in PM’s pain and loathes toff cliques who run party. Weirdly, daughter is girlfriend of possible future UKip defector Chris Kelly; she has advised Kelly not to jump ship “if he ever wants another roast dinner from me again” (amazingly, this is true). |
| Adam Afriyie ES, M | Adam Afriyie ES, M |
| Multimillionaire MP for Windsor said to be behind an attempt to oust the PM in January 2013. Also tried to force an EU referendum in 2014 (in response to which, one Tory MP said he was “a fucking disgrace to your party”). Unclear whether he’d be a serious leadership contender, but has enough dosh to have a go. | Multimillionaire MP for Windsor said to be behind an attempt to oust the PM in January 2013. Also tried to force an EU referendum in 2014 (in response to which, one Tory MP said he was “a fucking disgrace to your party”). Unclear whether he’d be a serious leadership contender, but has enough dosh to have a go. |
| Zac Goldsmith E, FOB | Zac Goldsmith E, FOB |
| MP for Richmond, Commons rebel and harsh critic of coalition, whose sister was until recently going out with Russell Brand. Recently said he’d be tempted to join Ukip if they “greened up”, then said he’d been joking. How we laughed. | MP for Richmond, Commons rebel and harsh critic of coalition, whose sister was until recently going out with Russell Brand. Recently said he’d be tempted to join Ukip if they “greened up”, then said he’d been joking. How we laughed. |
| Dave’s mates | Dave’s mates |
| David Cameron E, M | David Cameron E, M |
| Prime minister. Says defection soap opera threatening to drown out Tory conference is “not ideal”. Still, more popular than Ed Miliband. So that’s all right then. | Prime minister. Says defection soap opera threatening to drown out Tory conference is “not ideal”. Still, more popular than Ed Miliband. So that’s all right then. |
| Michael Gove M, FOC, FOG | Michael Gove M, FOC, FOG |
| Fired as education secretary, now chief whip. Remains close to Cameron, and now has job of halting further Ukip defections. Said to back Osborne as next leader, which apparently led to Boris having a “furious eruption”. | Fired as education secretary, now chief whip. Remains close to Cameron, and now has job of halting further Ukip defections. Said to back Osborne as next leader, which apparently led to Boris having a “furious eruption”. |
| Lynton Crosby DNAF | Lynton Crosby DNAF |
| Aussie Tory strategist once employed by Boris, reportedly paid £500,000 a year for advice to Cameron, including “get the barnacles off the boat”, ie keep things simple. Now faced with a lot of barnacles. | Aussie Tory strategist once employed by Boris, reportedly paid £500,000 a year for advice to Cameron, including “get the barnacles off the boat”, ie keep things simple. Now faced with a lot of barnacles. |
| Samantha Cameron, FOC, M | Samantha Cameron, FOC, M |
| First and last person PM sees most days, at least in theory. Having played pool with trip hop icon Tricky, got tattoo etc, not known for Ukip-esque views. Presumably thinks current imbroglio is, like, totes nightmare etc. | First and last person PM sees most days, at least in theory. Having played pool with trip hop icon Tricky, got tattoo etc, not known for Ukip-esque views. Presumably thinks current imbroglio is, like, totes nightmare etc. |
| Wild cards | Wild cards |
| Brooks Newmark M, PT | Brooks Newmark M, PT |
| Ex-minister for civil society, and co-founder of Tory organisation favouring female MPs called Women2Win. Resigned after responding to inviting tweets from “Tory PR girl Sophie Wittams” by “exposing himself while wearing a pair of paisley pyjamas” in pictures sent via WhatsApp. | Ex-minister for civil society, and co-founder of Tory organisation favouring female MPs called Women2Win. Resigned after responding to inviting tweets from “Tory PR girl Sophie Wittams” by “exposing himself while wearing a pair of paisley pyjamas” in pictures sent via WhatsApp. |
| Grant Shapps M, PT | Grant Shapps M, PT |
| Tory party chairman. Watford-born bit-part player in Tory intrigue beyond wildest imaginings even of comedy scriptwriters. Now defending leadership, but not necessarily a friend you’d want: he once assumed false names of “Michael Green” and “Sebastian Fox” when promoting his businesses, but now insists Mark Reckless “lied and lied and lied”. | Tory party chairman. Watford-born bit-part player in Tory intrigue beyond wildest imaginings even of comedy scriptwriters. Now defending leadership, but not necessarily a friend you’d want: he once assumed false names of “Michael Green” and “Sebastian Fox” when promoting his businesses, but now insists Mark Reckless “lied and lied and lied”. |
| Andy Coulson ex-FOC | Andy Coulson ex-FOC |
| Former No 10 communications chief, doubtless keeping tabs on crisis with from day lounge at HMP Hollesley Bay, Suffolk. | Former No 10 communications chief, doubtless keeping tabs on crisis with from day lounge at HMP Hollesley Bay, Suffolk. |
| Jacob Rees-Mogg E, T, ES | Jacob Rees-Mogg E, T, ES |
| Increasingly reliable punchline to all Tory jokes, and MP for North East Somerset. Favours electoral pact with Ukip because “generosity, courage and sense pave the path to victory”. Has a thing about Cadbury’s Creme Eggs, and does not own a single pair of jeans. Said to favour wing-collared pyjamas, which are probably not paisley. | Increasingly reliable punchline to all Tory jokes, and MP for North East Somerset. Favours electoral pact with Ukip because “generosity, courage and sense pave the path to victory”. Has a thing about Cadbury’s Creme Eggs, and does not own a single pair of jeans. Said to favour wing-collared pyjamas, which are probably not paisley. |
| • This article was amended on 1 October 2014. The table originally identified Liam Fox and Owen Paterson as Etonians rather than Eurosceptics. It was further amended on 2 October 2014. An earlier version identified Elizabeth Truss as children’s minister; she is the environment secretary. |