This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.

You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.theguardian.com/football/blog/2014/oct/02/alan-pardew-newcastle-manager-survival

The article has changed 4 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.

Version 0 Version 1
Cut Alan Pardew some slack – he’s been unlucky and players have been sold Cut Alan Pardew some slack – he’s been unlucky and players have been sold
(35 minutes later)
The knives have long been out for Alan Pardew. Now, though, they are pressed against his neck. Few expect Newcastle’s manager to survive a defeat at Swansea this Saturday; fewer supporters still would mourn his departure.The knives have long been out for Alan Pardew. Now, though, they are pressed against his neck. Few expect Newcastle’s manager to survive a defeat at Swansea this Saturday; fewer supporters still would mourn his departure.
You can understand why. Newcastle have sunk into the relegation zone having failed to muster a league win this season. More damning still, of the 17 ever-present Premier League sides in 2014, they have the fewest points (19), scored the fewest goals (19) and conceded the most (48). No wonder boos come as easily to some fans as breathing.You can understand why. Newcastle have sunk into the relegation zone having failed to muster a league win this season. More damning still, of the 17 ever-present Premier League sides in 2014, they have the fewest points (19), scored the fewest goals (19) and conceded the most (48). No wonder boos come as easily to some fans as breathing.
One of football’s most immutable laws is that when a team dramatically nosedives, the manager takes the fall. But the situation at St James’ Park is not so black and white. In fact Pardew has suffered a couple of huge slices of ill fortune by losing his two best players from last season, and also the rub of the green in matches. Given time, he might yet turn things round. One of football’s most immutable laws is that when a team dramatically nosedives, the manager takes the fall. But the situation at St James’ Park is not so black and white. Pardew has suffered a couple of huge slices of ill fortune by losing his two best players from last season, and also the rub of the green in matches. Given time, he might yet turn things round.
There will be many who will be mightily sceptical about that. But even Pardew’s most venomous critics would concede that the departure of Loïc Rémy to Chelsea was a deeply concussive blow. Last season Newcastle won 14 out of 26 Premier League matches when Rémy played, averaged 1.6 goals a game (helped by Rémy’s 14 goals), and took 45 points. Without him their record was shocking: one win, one draw, nine defeats – and just one goal in 11 matches. Many will be mightily sceptical about that. But even Pardew’s most venomous critics would concede that the departure of Loïc Rémy to Chelsea was a deeply concussive blow. Last season Newcastle won 14 out of 26 Premier League matches when Rémy played, averaged 1.6 goals a game (helped by Rémy’s 14 goals), and took 45 points. Without him their record was shocking: one win, one draw, nine defeats – and only one goal in 11 matches.
Before then, the January sale of Cabaye to Paris Saint-Germain had already stripped the wind from their sails. Cabaye’s final game for Newcastle was an away victory at West Ham on 18 January, when they were five points off sixth-placed Everton. Since then they have won just four times in the league. Before then, the January sale of Yohan Cabaye to Paris Saint-Germain had already stripped the wind from their sails. Cabaye’s final game for Newcastle was an away victory at West Ham on 18 January, when they were five points off sixth-placed Everton. Since then they have won only four times in the league.
During Cabaye’s time at Newcastle, they won 37, drew 16, and lost 26 out of the 79 Premier League games he played – a win percentage of 47%. In the 19 games Cabaye didn’t appear, Newcastle won four, drew three, and lost 12 – a win percentage of just 21%. During Cabaye’s time at Newcastle, they won 37, drew 16, and lost 26 of the 79 Premier League games he played – an average of 1.6 points a game. In the 19 games in which Cabaye didn’t appear, Newcastle won four, drew three and lost 12 – only 0.78 points a game.
Newcastle’s scouting team have rightly been praised for unearthing several cut-price gems. But there is only so long you can rummage in the bargain bin before picking up tat. So far, at least, the club’s summer acquisitions – including Rémy Cabella, Daryl Janmaat and particularly Emmanuel Rivière – have yet to adapt or consistently impress. Is that Pardew’s fault, or the inevitable consequence of the club’s parsimonious transfer policy instilled by Mike Ashley? Newcastle’s scouting team have rightly been praised for unearthing several cut-price gems. But there is only so long you can rummage in the bargain bin before picking up tat. The club’s summer acquisitions – including Rémy Cabella, Daryl Janmaat and particularly Emmanuel Rivière – have yet to adapt or consistently impress. Is that Pardew’s fault, or the inevitable consequence of the club’s parsimonious transfer policy instilled by Mike Ashley?
Pardew’s critics will point out – rightly – that a record of 19 points in 26 Premier League matches since Boxing Day, with a goal difference of -29, is still a desperate return. Yet luck, or rather the lack of it, has probably played some part too.Pardew’s critics will point out – rightly – that a record of 19 points in 26 Premier League matches since Boxing Day, with a goal difference of -29, is still a desperate return. Yet luck, or rather the lack of it, has probably played some part too.
We all know that luck is supposed to even itself out in football, but in the short term it can play havoc with a team’s bottom line. In the 26 games between Boxing Day and the present day, for instance, Newcastle had 278 shots, with 110 on target, and made five defensive errors – while their passing accuracy was 80.5%. Those Opta figures are very similar to Newcastle’s previous 26 games, from spring 2013 to Christmas 2013: 289 shots, 119 on target, three defensive mistakes, passing accuracy 80.3%. Yet in this earlier period they won 41 points and had a goal difference of -3, compared to 19 points and a goal difference of -29 in their most recent 26-game spell. We all know that luck is supposed to even itself out in football, but in the short term it can play havoc with a team’s bottom line. In the 26 games between Boxing Day and the present day, for instance, Newcastle had 278 shots, with 110 on target, and made five defensive errors – and their passing accuracy was 80.5%. Those Opta figures are very similar to Newcastle’s previous 26 games, from spring 2013 to Christmas 2013: 289 shots, 119 on target, three defensive mistakes, passing accuracy 80.3%. Yet in this earlier period they won 41 points and had a goal difference of -3, compared to 19 points and a goal difference of -29 in their most recent 26-game spell.
A cynic might counter by suggesting that Newcastle are now taking shots from further away, and conceding them in more dangerous errors. But that is only partly true according to Colin Trainor, an analyst for Statsbomb.com, who has developed an Expected Goals model (ExpG) with his colleague Constantinos Chappas which assigns a probability of every shot in a match resulting in a goal, based on the location of the shot and type of shot, plus several other factors. A cynic might counter by suggesting that Newcastle are now taking shots from farther away, and conceding them in more dangerous areas. But that is only partly true according to Colin Trainor, an analyst for Statsbomb.com, who has developed an Expected Goals model with his colleague Constantinos Chappas which assigns a probability of every shot in a match resulting in a goal, based on the location and type of shot, plus several other factors.
After plotting every Newcastle shot and those of their opponents since Boxing Day, Trainor’s model suggests that Pardew’s side could have reasonably expected a goal difference of -8.5 rather than -29. Since 2010 only two Premier League sides (Chelsea towards the end of the 2010-11 season, and Liverpool between April 2012 and November 2012) were more unlucky according to his model – and both subsequently reverted to their true underlying performance. After plotting every Newcastle shot and those of their opponents since Boxing Day, Trainor’s model suggests that Pardew’s side could have reasonably expected a goal difference of -8.5 rather than -29. Since 2010 only two Premier League sides (Chelsea towards the end of the 2010-11 season, and Liverpool between April and November 2012) were more unlucky according to his model – and both subsequently reverted to their true underlying performance.
In other words, given a long enough period of time, a team will tend to deliver the results deserving of shots they are taking and allowing. Incidentally, when Tottenham were flying under Tim Sherwood in February, Trainor wrote a contentious article saying it would not last because the underlying numbers suggested Spurs were enjoying more luck than normal. He was quickly proved right.In other words, given a long enough period of time, a team will tend to deliver the results deserving of shots they are taking and allowing. Incidentally, when Tottenham were flying under Tim Sherwood in February, Trainor wrote a contentious article saying it would not last because the underlying numbers suggested Spurs were enjoying more luck than normal. He was quickly proved right.
Does that mean Pardew should be given an indefinite stay of execution while he waits for his luck to change? Of course not. Sometimes managers get to a stage where they feel stale, or players no longer buy into methods. In such cases, is it best to part ways. But given we are only six games into the season, Pardew probably deserves a little slack. Remember in the last four seasons Newcastle have finished 12th, fifth, 16th and 10th – which, given their spending, is pretty much in sync with what you would expect.Does that mean Pardew should be given an indefinite stay of execution while he waits for his luck to change? Of course not. Sometimes managers get to a stage where they feel stale, or players no longer buy into methods. In such cases, is it best to part ways. But given we are only six games into the season, Pardew probably deserves a little slack. Remember in the last four seasons Newcastle have finished 12th, fifth, 16th and 10th – which, given their spending, is pretty much in sync with what you would expect.
It is also worth pointing out that despite the club’s recent slump, Pardew still has a better win percentage as Newcastle manager in the Premier League (36%) than any of the past five Magpies’ managers. Has he really become that much worse since Christmas? Or might it be that a brutal combination of losing his best players, a lack of investment, and ill fortune has played a bigger part? It is also worth pointing out that despite the recent slump, Pardew still has a better win percentage as Newcastle manager in the Premier League (36%) than any of the past five Magpies’ managers. Has he really become that much worse since Christmas? Or might it be that a brutal combination of losing his best players, a lack of investment, and ill fortune has played a bigger part?