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| Dilma Rousseff in poll position as Brazilians set to vote for their wallets | Dilma Rousseff in poll position as Brazilians set to vote for their wallets |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| A little over a year ago, Júlia da Luz Bueno was among the million or so protesters who waved placards and chanted for change in the biggest protests Brazil has seen in a generation. This Sunday, however, she will go to the polling booth and vote for continuity: the re-election of Dilma Rousseff, the candidate for the ruling Workers party, as president. | A little over a year ago, Júlia da Luz Bueno was among the million or so protesters who waved placards and chanted for change in the biggest protests Brazil has seen in a generation. This Sunday, however, she will go to the polling booth and vote for continuity: the re-election of Dilma Rousseff, the candidate for the ruling Workers party, as president. |
| The science student sees no contradiction. Although many things could be better, Da Luz Bueno thinks the country is on the right track, particularly with regard to economic measures that aim to address one of the world’s most unequal societies. | The science student sees no contradiction. Although many things could be better, Da Luz Bueno thinks the country is on the right track, particularly with regard to economic measures that aim to address one of the world’s most unequal societies. |
| “In general, things have greatly improved for everyone in Brazil, especially for the poor,” she says. “I think Brazilians have confidence in the development of Brazil despite the large challenges we still face.” | “In general, things have greatly improved for everyone in Brazil, especially for the poor,” she says. “I think Brazilians have confidence in the development of Brazil despite the large challenges we still face.” |
| Her views are widely shared, according to opinion polls, which suggest the electorate will give a clear, but inconclusive victory to Rousseff in this weekend’s elections for the presidency thanks largely to her income redistribution policies. | Her views are widely shared, according to opinion polls, which suggest the electorate will give a clear, but inconclusive victory to Rousseff in this weekend’s elections for the presidency thanks largely to her income redistribution policies. |
| After a topsy-turvy year for the country and one of the most up-and-down political campaigns in recent memory, about 40% of Brazilians look likely to vote for Workers’ party stability rather than experiment with the environmentally sustainable government promised by the president’s main challenger, Marina Silva (who is polling about 25%), or return to the Social Democrat past represented by Aécio Neves (third with 20%). | After a topsy-turvy year for the country and one of the most up-and-down political campaigns in recent memory, about 40% of Brazilians look likely to vote for Workers’ party stability rather than experiment with the environmentally sustainable government promised by the president’s main challenger, Marina Silva (who is polling about 25%), or return to the Social Democrat past represented by Aécio Neves (third with 20%). |
| If the surveys are accurate, that would set the stage on 26 October for a first-ever run-off between two women to decide who leads this traditionally macho nation and the world’s seventh largest economy. | If the surveys are accurate, that would set the stage on 26 October for a first-ever run-off between two women to decide who leads this traditionally macho nation and the world’s seventh largest economy. |
| Both have extraordinary backgrounds. Rousseff is a former Marxist activist who was imprisoned and tortured during the military dictatorship. Silva is from a poor, mixed-race family of Amazonian rubber-tappers who campaigned alongside the late union activist and environmentalist Chico Mendes. | Both have extraordinary backgrounds. Rousseff is a former Marxist activist who was imprisoned and tortured during the military dictatorship. Silva is from a poor, mixed-race family of Amazonian rubber-tappers who campaigned alongside the late union activist and environmentalist Chico Mendes. |
| They served together as ministers in the first administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though now offer divergent views about the country’s future, particularly with regard to the economy. | They served together as ministers in the first administration of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, though now offer divergent views about the country’s future, particularly with regard to the economy. |
| This more than any other issue is crucial. Although there have been many contentious issues – a huge corruption scandal at the country’s biggest oil company Petrobras, the rising power of evangelical Christianity and widening social tensions over same-sex marriage and abortion, voters appear to be most influenced by the most traditional of factors: the money in their pockets. | |
| Rousseff’s strongest campaign message has been statistics showing steady progress in reducing inequality over the past 12 years of Workers’ party rule. The rich-poor gap remains one of the highest in the world, but the Gini coefficient measure of inequality of 0.49 is down from 0.56 in 2001. The jobless rate is close to record lows at 5%, the minimum wage is up more than 50% in the past five years, tens of millions of people have risen out of poverty since the Workers’ party came to power in 2003 and the bolsa familia poverty relief payments have been extended to 13.8 million families. The latter now cover almost a quarter of the population, making them a powerful political weapon. | |
| Rousseff’s support is unsurprisingly strongest among the lowest income groups and in the north-east, which has been Brazil’s poorest region for much of the last century, but has enjoyed robust growth in the past decade. | |
| Silva, by contrast, has tapped into middle-class frustrations with corruption and a sluggish economy that has crawled for the past two years and slipped into recession last month (partly because there were so many public holidays during the World Cup). She has promised to break with the left-right politics of the past by maintaining the social policies and poverty relief payments of the Workers’ party, while adopting pro-business economic measures usually associated with the centre-right Social Democrats. She would give greater autonomy to the central bank and shift the focus of trade relations to the US, instead of regional blocks and other emerging Brics economies. If she wins, she is widely expected to co-opt many members of the Neves camp into her team. | Silva, by contrast, has tapped into middle-class frustrations with corruption and a sluggish economy that has crawled for the past two years and slipped into recession last month (partly because there were so many public holidays during the World Cup). She has promised to break with the left-right politics of the past by maintaining the social policies and poverty relief payments of the Workers’ party, while adopting pro-business economic measures usually associated with the centre-right Social Democrats. She would give greater autonomy to the central bank and shift the focus of trade relations to the US, instead of regional blocks and other emerging Brics economies. If she wins, she is widely expected to co-opt many members of the Neves camp into her team. |
| Prof Gaudêncio Torquato, professor of political communication at the University of São Paulo, says Silva appeals to the heart, while Rousseff appeals to the wallet – and for this reason the latter will win. | Prof Gaudêncio Torquato, professor of political communication at the University of São Paulo, says Silva appeals to the heart, while Rousseff appeals to the wallet – and for this reason the latter will win. |
| “Marina is emotion. Dilma is reason,” he says. “Marina embodies the opposition to old-style politics. Dilma represents the continuation of bolsa familia – wallet full, fridge full, tummy full, a grateful heart and head. This is what determines how people vote: they choose the candidate who keeps their wallets full.” | |
| Carlos Pinkusfeld, a professor of economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro concurs: “Social indicators are good, poverty is down. The Workers’ party has delivered at least reasonably good economic indicators. I’m sure that the government’s economic performance will have a big impact.” | Carlos Pinkusfeld, a professor of economics at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro concurs: “Social indicators are good, poverty is down. The Workers’ party has delivered at least reasonably good economic indicators. I’m sure that the government’s economic performance will have a big impact.” |
| But nothing can be taken for granted in a race that has been characterised by voter fickleness and so many unexpected twists and turns they could have been plotted by a scriptwriter. | But nothing can be taken for granted in a race that has been characterised by voter fickleness and so many unexpected twists and turns they could have been plotted by a scriptwriter. |
| Until June 2013, Rousseff had looked a shoo-in with approval ratings of 73%. That number fell sharply after mass protests against corruption, police violence, forced relocations and wasteful public spending on football stadiums instead of transport, healthcare and education. During the World Cup this year, Rousseff was heckled and booed, but was still clear favourite to win re-election. Then in August, her prospects suddenly dimmed when Socialist party candidate Eduardo Campos died in a plane accident and was replaced by Silva, who tripled her coalition’s share of the vote and briefly led the polls. In past weeks, however, Rousseff has regained her lead. | Until June 2013, Rousseff had looked a shoo-in with approval ratings of 73%. That number fell sharply after mass protests against corruption, police violence, forced relocations and wasteful public spending on football stadiums instead of transport, healthcare and education. During the World Cup this year, Rousseff was heckled and booed, but was still clear favourite to win re-election. Then in August, her prospects suddenly dimmed when Socialist party candidate Eduardo Campos died in a plane accident and was replaced by Silva, who tripled her coalition’s share of the vote and briefly led the polls. In past weeks, however, Rousseff has regained her lead. |
| All sides have engaged in fear-mongering, though the Workers’ party, with a powerful campaign machine, the advantages of incumbency and extra television time and campaign funds, has gone the furthest in its attacks. Campaign ads have painted Silva as a candidate who would take food off the plates of the poor (though Silva says she would continue bolsa familia because she knows better than most what it is like to go hungry), as a puppet of the banks (though financial institutions have made record profits under the Rousseff administration) and as a socially conservative evangelical in thrall to church leaders (though Rousseff has also courted Pentecostal pastors and supported the appointment of homophobic religious leaders to key congressional committee chairs). | All sides have engaged in fear-mongering, though the Workers’ party, with a powerful campaign machine, the advantages of incumbency and extra television time and campaign funds, has gone the furthest in its attacks. Campaign ads have painted Silva as a candidate who would take food off the plates of the poor (though Silva says she would continue bolsa familia because she knows better than most what it is like to go hungry), as a puppet of the banks (though financial institutions have made record profits under the Rousseff administration) and as a socially conservative evangelical in thrall to church leaders (though Rousseff has also courted Pentecostal pastors and supported the appointment of homophobic religious leaders to key congressional committee chairs). |
| Workers’ party opponents, on the other hand, say a fourth consecutive presidential term (after two by Lula and one by Rousseff) would be bad for Brazil’s democracy because it would strengthen its control over the courts and the media, as in Venezuela. | Workers’ party opponents, on the other hand, say a fourth consecutive presidential term (after two by Lula and one by Rousseff) would be bad for Brazil’s democracy because it would strengthen its control over the courts and the media, as in Venezuela. |
| “If the Workers’ party wins again, it will be 16 years in power. That’s a very long time. It means we are progressively moving towards an undemocratic government,” said Heni Ozi Cukier, an international relations professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas University. “The Workers’ party is changing the national debate and changing everyone’s perceptions and it’s controlling the way people see reality. It’s terrible for a democracy. If Dilma is re-elected, there will be an erosion of checks and balances and the division of power.” | “If the Workers’ party wins again, it will be 16 years in power. That’s a very long time. It means we are progressively moving towards an undemocratic government,” said Heni Ozi Cukier, an international relations professor at Fundação Getúlio Vargas University. “The Workers’ party is changing the national debate and changing everyone’s perceptions and it’s controlling the way people see reality. It’s terrible for a democracy. If Dilma is re-elected, there will be an erosion of checks and balances and the division of power.” |
| The Workers’ party also has a lot to lose. Voters will be busy on Sunday, choosing not only a president, but 27 state governors, 513 congressmen, 1,069 regional lawmakers and a third of the senate. Only when that is done and the second round completed on 26 October will it be clear how the political landscape has been shaped by last year’s protests and this year’s family budgets. | The Workers’ party also has a lot to lose. Voters will be busy on Sunday, choosing not only a president, but 27 state governors, 513 congressmen, 1,069 regional lawmakers and a third of the senate. Only when that is done and the second round completed on 26 October will it be clear how the political landscape has been shaped by last year’s protests and this year’s family budgets. |
| Additional reporting by Anna Kaiser | Additional reporting by Anna Kaiser |