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Brazil election: Players and policies Brazil's presidential election: Players and policies
(3 days later)
Until mid-August, Brazil's presidential election, due to be held on 5 October, appeared to be heading for a predictable outcome. No candidate in Brazil's presidential election won an outright first round victory, so the top two contenders will face each other in a run-off on 26 October.
All polls gave a clear lead to incumbent Dilma Rousseff, but the sudden fatal accident of one of the main candidates has injected a big dose of unpredictability. Who will be facing whom?
Why is the president's re-election suddenly in doubt? With almost all the votes in the first round counted, incumbent Dilma Rousseff of the Workers' Party had a solid lead with about 42% of the vote.
Despite widespread dissatisfaction with the performance of her centre-left Workers' Party (PT), opinion polls suggested Ms Rousseff was well ahead of her two main rivals, Aecio Neves and Eduardo Campos. She will be joined in the run-off by Aecio Neves of the centre-right Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB), who got 34% of the vote.
It looked like Ms Rousseff would be re-elected by default as none of the other candidates seemed to stand out enough from Brazil's white political elite to capture the voters' imagination. Environmentalist Marina Silva, who until recently had been leading in pre-election opinion polls, is out of the running after only getting 21% of the vote.
Then Mr Campos, the candidate for the Brazilian Socialist Party, died in a plane crash and his replacement, Marina Silva, emerged as a surprisingly strong contender. Why has the election been so unpredictable?
The environmentalist from the Amazon was already a well-known politician, having come third in the 2010 presidential elections. Her humble background, mixed-raced ancestry and corruption-free credentials have set her apart. Until mid-August, the election appeared to be heading for a predictable outcome: most opinion polls indicated a clear lead for Ms Rousseff with Mr Neves coming second.
In a recent poll, 25% of canvassed voters said they would support her in the first round, compared to 40% of canvassed voters who said they would back Ms Rousseff and 20% who said they would back Mr Neves, of the Brazilian Social Democracy Party. But the sudden fatal accident of the third-ranked candidate, Eduardo Campos of the Socialist Party, injected a big dose of unpredictability.
While the poll gives the president a lead of 15 percentage points, a failure by her or any other candidate to get more than 50% of the votes would mean that the election goes into a second round. Mr Campos was replaced by his running-mate, Marina Silva, and a sudden outpouring of grief and sympathy catapulted her into first place in the opinion polls.
For weeks, polls predicted a run-off between Ms Silva and Ms Rousseff, leaving Aecio Neves trailing a distant third.
But a late surge for Mr Neves means the battle for the presidency will now be fought between the two parties which have dominated Brazilian politics since the country returned to democracy three decades ago.
Why did Marina Silva fall behind?
Marina Silva enjoyed a surge in popularity after her nomination by the Brazilian Socialist Party in the wake of the death of Mr Campos.
Her campaign battle cry of "change" captured the imagination of many Brazilians fed up with persistent corruption scandals.
Her humble upbringing - she grew up in a poor family of rubber tappers in the Amazon - and her mixed-race background set her apart from the other candidates.
But some people within the Socialist Party questioned her commitment to their party's policies, pointing out Ms Silva had changed affiliation four times in five years.
An about-turn on her pledge to back gay marriage further alienated voters from the gay and lesbian community and their supporters.
Others who liked her message of change were concerned her evangelical religion would stand in the way of changing Brazil's restrictive abortion legislation.
Ms Silva - an environmentalist - had also worried many within the green movement when she appeased Brazil's powerful agribusiness sector by expressing support for GM crops and agriculture "on all levels".
Ms Silva herself has blamed "old politics" for her defeat. "It was a battle between David and Goliath," she said, referring to the powerful political machines of her opponents.
How has Dilma Rousseff's presidency measured up?How has Dilma Rousseff's presidency measured up?
Statistics are in Ms Rousseff's favour.Statistics are in Ms Rousseff's favour.
During her tenure, unemployment has been lower than under any of her predecessors, at about 5%.During her tenure, unemployment has been lower than under any of her predecessors, at about 5%.
The minimum monthly wage (R$724; $304; £183) has increased despite the financial crisis and the number of undernourished Brazilians has fallen by more than 80% in the past decade, according to the UN.The minimum monthly wage (R$724; $304; £183) has increased despite the financial crisis and the number of undernourished Brazilians has fallen by more than 80% in the past decade, according to the UN.
To improve access to healthcare, 14,000 doctors have been drafted in from Cuba. Other social programmes have further improved the life of lower income households, a fact that even rival candidates have acknowledged. To improve access to healthcare, 14,000 doctors have been drafted in from Cuba. Other social programmes have further improved the life of lower-income households, a fact that even rival candidates have acknowledged.
What's holding Ms Rousseff back?What's holding Ms Rousseff back?
The past 18 months have been marred by recession and corruption scandals.The past 18 months have been marred by recession and corruption scandals.
Dissatisfaction has manifested itself in the form of protests over poor public services and the World Cup costs.Dissatisfaction has manifested itself in the form of protests over poor public services and the World Cup costs.
Without the charisma that her predecessor, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, possessed, Ms Rousseff has failed to garner the same public support. Without the charisma possessed by her predecessor Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, Ms Rousseff has failed to garner the same public support.
Would Marina Silva fare any better? What does Mr Neves bring to the table?
When Ms Silva first emerged as the new Socialist candidate, she was seen by many as a vehicle for political change. Mr Neves, 54, is a member of Brazil's white political elite, whose grandfather Tancredo Neves successfully ran for the presidency in 1985 but died before taking office.
But certain factors damaged her credibility during the course of the campaign. Ms Silva's affiliation with the PSB is seen as tenuous by some in the party who point to the fact that she has changed political parties four times in five years. Currently a senator, Mr Neves served as the governor of Brazil's second most populous state, Minas Gerais, from 2003 to 2010.
She is also perceived as not adhering to policy, demonstrated most clearly by the recent withdrawal of her pledge to back gay marriage. He is seen as the candidate who is favoured by big business in Brazil and has in the past condemned President Rousseff's handling of the economy, accusing the Workers' Party of frightening off investors.
The environmentalist has also expressed support for GM crops and agriculture "on all levels", appeasing agribusinesses, but worrying green movements. What is Marina Silva's role in the second round?
Despite these inconsistencies, some analysts predict that the economy would fare better under Ms Silva's proposed programme, which is centred on fiscal austerity and a floating exchange rate. Marina Silva is still expected to play a key role in the coming weeks as who she endorses could prove decisive in the second round.
What is Lula's role in the campaign? Following her defeat on Sunday, Ms Silva seemed to indicate she would consider backing Mr Neves, saying "there is no way to misinterpret the sentiment of voters, of the 60% who moved for change".
Having left the presidency with an 87% approval rating, Luiz Inacio da Silva, or "Lula as he is known in Brazil, remains a very influential figure. During the campaign, Ms Silva's position on economic issues mirrored that of Mr Neves in many ways.
Last June, the former president endorsed Ms Rousseff's bid for re-election. He has since appeared in her campaign video and has lobbied on her behalf throughout the country. Critics said her business-friendly policies were an attempt to woo voters from Mr Neves, but analysts argue their agreement on policies such as the need to reform the country's complicated tax system and reduce the costs faced by small businesses make it more likely that Ms Silva will endorse Mr Neves in the second round.
However, his role has been less visible than in the 2010 election, when Ms Rousseff was his chosen successor.
Who will back whom in a run-off?
If none of the candidates wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round, the poll will go to a run-off on 26 October.
The leading contenders will then look to attract the voters of the third most popular candidate. According to a poll conducted by Datafolha, this is likely to be Mr Neves.
Favoured by big business and the financial sector, he has ruled out backing Ms Silva, despite the similarities in their economic programmes. But his scathing attacks on the PT make his support for Ms Rousseff even less likely.
Of the remaining candidates, the Socialism and Liberty Party's Luciana Genro has caught the attention of social media with her combative style and progressive views. But with just 1% in the polls, any support she would offer is unlikely to make an impact on the final result.
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