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| In Brazil, presidential candidates try to catch a wave | In Brazil, presidential candidates try to catch a wave |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| RIO DE JANEIRO — In the final days before Sunday’s national and state elections here, most of the available space in Rio de Janeiro had been turned over to campaign advertising. Cyclists towed campaign placards down Copacabana Beach. A candidate’s billboard bobbed atop a small boat near Botafogo Beach. | RIO DE JANEIRO — In the final days before Sunday’s national and state elections here, most of the available space in Rio de Janeiro had been turned over to campaign advertising. Cyclists towed campaign placards down Copacabana Beach. A candidate’s billboard bobbed atop a small boat near Botafogo Beach. |
| Lunchtime crowds crossing the square by Carioca metro station in central Rio weaved through a forest of election posters, balanced on flimsy metal stands. A makeshift “bin” for “election rubbish” was stuffed with broken billboards. Speaker systems on the roofs of cars and trucks blasted campaign jingles. | Lunchtime crowds crossing the square by Carioca metro station in central Rio weaved through a forest of election posters, balanced on flimsy metal stands. A makeshift “bin” for “election rubbish” was stuffed with broken billboards. Speaker systems on the roofs of cars and trucks blasted campaign jingles. |
| Related: The trio facing off for president in Brazil | Related: The trio facing off for president in Brazil |
| Everywhere there were the smiling faces of the three main presidential candidates, known simply by their Christian names: Dilma, Marina and Aécio. Many in Brazil still did not know in the last few days of the campaign who they would vote for. In an election that has already swung around three times during campaigning, it is these “don’t knows” who could prove decisive. | Everywhere there were the smiling faces of the three main presidential candidates, known simply by their Christian names: Dilma, Marina and Aécio. Many in Brazil still did not know in the last few days of the campaign who they would vote for. In an election that has already swung around three times during campaigning, it is these “don’t knows” who could prove decisive. |
| Dilma Rousseff, the Workers Party incumbent president up for reelection, leads with 40 percent, according to a poll published Oct. 2 by the Brazilian Institute of Public Opinion and Statistics (IBOPE). In third place, but enjoying a surge, is center-right candidate Aécio Neves. Marina Silva, an environmentalist and “third way” candidate, is in second place with 24 percent and likely to force a second-round run-off on Oct. 26. In a head-to-head matchup, polls show Rousseff with 43 percent support, seven points ahead of Silva. | |
| This has been a tense, acrimonious campaign. Rousseff began as the favorite but lost her position when Silva entered the campaign after candidate Eduardo Campos, who was her running mate, died in a plane crash on Aug. 13. Silva got 19 percent of the vote as a Green Party candidate in 2010, coming in third. This year, she enjoyed a huge surge in support when she entered the race, pulling her even with Rousseff, and ahead in a second round. Tough campaigning by Rousseff has reversed the position. | This has been a tense, acrimonious campaign. Rousseff began as the favorite but lost her position when Silva entered the campaign after candidate Eduardo Campos, who was her running mate, died in a plane crash on Aug. 13. Silva got 19 percent of the vote as a Green Party candidate in 2010, coming in third. This year, she enjoyed a huge surge in support when she entered the race, pulling her even with Rousseff, and ahead in a second round. Tough campaigning by Rousseff has reversed the position. |
| In central Rio, many in the lunchtime crowds were still undecided in the final week. | In central Rio, many in the lunchtime crowds were still undecided in the final week. |
| Elisabete Felipe, 38, a care worker for pensioners, was pondering her decision. “I don’t know. The preference is for Marina,” she said. | Elisabete Felipe, 38, a care worker for pensioners, was pondering her decision. “I don’t know. The preference is for Marina,” she said. |
| “I will decide on the day,” said saleswoman Adriana de Almeida, 34. According to IBOPE’s latest poll, 7 percent still didn’t know how they’d vote and another 7 percent planned to leave their ballots blank. (Failing to vote in Brazil incurs a small fine.) | “I will decide on the day,” said saleswoman Adriana de Almeida, 34. According to IBOPE’s latest poll, 7 percent still didn’t know how they’d vote and another 7 percent planned to leave their ballots blank. (Failing to vote in Brazil incurs a small fine.) |
| This is in keeping with Brazil’s increasingly changeable public opinion. In June 2013, a million people took to the streets to demand better public services and World Cup spending and an end to corruption. A year later, the same population enjoyed a tournament regarded as one of the most successful ever — and protests were minimal. | This is in keeping with Brazil’s increasingly changeable public opinion. In June 2013, a million people took to the streets to demand better public services and World Cup spending and an end to corruption. A year later, the same population enjoyed a tournament regarded as one of the most successful ever — and protests were minimal. |
| “More and more Brazilians tend to take decisions slowly and choose their candidate in the last days,” said Jairo Nicolau, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. “Even for president, there is a high rate of indecision and of electors migrating from one candidate to another.” | “More and more Brazilians tend to take decisions slowly and choose their candidate in the last days,” said Jairo Nicolau, a political scientist at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. “Even for president, there is a high rate of indecision and of electors migrating from one candidate to another.” |
| Few dispute the enormous social benefits that Brazil received under Rousseff’s Workers Party, especially under her predecessor, the charismatic, perennially popular Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During a decade of economic growth, 36 million Brazilians emerged from poverty. More than half of the Brazilian population is now part of a new, lower-middle class. | Few dispute the enormous social benefits that Brazil received under Rousseff’s Workers Party, especially under her predecessor, the charismatic, perennially popular Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. During a decade of economic growth, 36 million Brazilians emerged from poverty. More than half of the Brazilian population is now part of a new, lower-middle class. |
| It is within this group that the election is being most fiercely contested, and it is divided between Rousseff and Silva. “The new middle class is the most competitive electoral group,” said Rafael Cortez, a political scientist at a São Paulo consulting firm called Tendencias. | It is within this group that the election is being most fiercely contested, and it is divided between Rousseff and Silva. “The new middle class is the most competitive electoral group,” said Rafael Cortez, a political scientist at a São Paulo consulting firm called Tendencias. |
| But Brazil has stuttered into a technical recession. And the new middle class, less dependent on government welfare programs, is feeling the pinch. Nor has it seen public services improve as quickly as it would like. This was in part behind the 2013 protests. | But Brazil has stuttered into a technical recession. And the new middle class, less dependent on government welfare programs, is feeling the pinch. Nor has it seen public services improve as quickly as it would like. This was in part behind the 2013 protests. |
| “They face some problems that have not been resolved,” Cortez said. “Health, education, urban mobility, security.” | “They face some problems that have not been resolved,” Cortez said. “Health, education, urban mobility, security.” |
| After 130,000 attended Eduardo Campos’s funeral in Recife, an outpouring of emotion gave Silva a bounce. She was able to make inroads into the new middle class with a program that promised to increase spending on education and health while introducing liberal economic measures to get Brazil’s economy growing again. | After 130,000 attended Eduardo Campos’s funeral in Recife, an outpouring of emotion gave Silva a bounce. She was able to make inroads into the new middle class with a program that promised to increase spending on education and health while introducing liberal economic measures to get Brazil’s economy growing again. |
| Leide Silva, 44, a receptionist in central Rio, was one of many who see in Silva an opportunity to vote for change. “Enough of Dilma. She had her chance, and nothing changed,” she said. | Leide Silva, 44, a receptionist in central Rio, was one of many who see in Silva an opportunity to vote for change. “Enough of Dilma. She had her chance, and nothing changed,” she said. |
| But Silva is an evangelical Christian, and this has alienated some on Brazil’s reformist fringe. Under election rules, Rousseff has five times Silva’s television advertising time and has made good use of it with a powerful and aggressive campaign, targeting Silva. “Recently Dilma took these voters back but it is very competitive,” Cortez said. | But Silva is an evangelical Christian, and this has alienated some on Brazil’s reformist fringe. Under election rules, Rousseff has five times Silva’s television advertising time and has made good use of it with a powerful and aggressive campaign, targeting Silva. “Recently Dilma took these voters back but it is very competitive,” Cortez said. |
| Rousseff also has the advantage of being in government. Many voters choose the incumbent because of a fear of change. | Rousseff also has the advantage of being in government. Many voters choose the incumbent because of a fear of change. |
| Renata Maria, 38, who sells refreshments on Flamengo Beach, was undecided, she said, but leaning toward Rousseff over Silva. “It’s the same thing. But Dilma’s already there,” she said. | Renata Maria, 38, who sells refreshments on Flamengo Beach, was undecided, she said, but leaning toward Rousseff over Silva. “It’s the same thing. But Dilma’s already there,” she said. |
| Lower-class voters support the Workers Party. Silva made some inroads here, having emphasized her own humble beginnings in a family of illiterate rubber tappers in the Brazilian Amazon. “She is from our class,” said Jefferson Luiz, 52, a cleaner taking a lunch-break breather in central Rio, who will vote for her. “Let’s see if she can change something.” | Lower-class voters support the Workers Party. Silva made some inroads here, having emphasized her own humble beginnings in a family of illiterate rubber tappers in the Brazilian Amazon. “She is from our class,” said Jefferson Luiz, 52, a cleaner taking a lunch-break breather in central Rio, who will vote for her. “Let’s see if she can change something.” |
| But Rousseff has campaigned hard to bring this demographic back on her side — even suggesting that Silva’s plans for the Central Bank would deliver Brazil up to bankers. “The government has been successful in combating poverty,” Cortez said. Lower-class voters, he said, “vote in Dilma for continuity. They do not want big changes.” | But Rousseff has campaigned hard to bring this demographic back on her side — even suggesting that Silva’s plans for the Central Bank would deliver Brazil up to bankers. “The government has been successful in combating poverty,” Cortez said. Lower-class voters, he said, “vote in Dilma for continuity. They do not want big changes.” |
| Aécio Neves’s Party for Brazilian Social Democracy is perceived as the party of Brazil’s rich elite. But it also appeals to those who want the Workers Party out. | Aécio Neves’s Party for Brazilian Social Democracy is perceived as the party of Brazil’s rich elite. But it also appeals to those who want the Workers Party out. |
| Neves has attacked Rousseff over a burgeoning scandal at the state-owned oil company, Petrobras, involving over-invoicing on refinery contracts and kickbacks to political parties. This has allowed him, not Silva, to appear as the anti-corruption candidate. “There is a growing sentiment for change. He also managed to grow, with this erosion in Marina’s image,” Cortez said. | Neves has attacked Rousseff over a burgeoning scandal at the state-owned oil company, Petrobras, involving over-invoicing on refinery contracts and kickbacks to political parties. This has allowed him, not Silva, to appear as the anti-corruption candidate. “There is a growing sentiment for change. He also managed to grow, with this erosion in Marina’s image,” Cortez said. |
| Daniel Paschoal, 34, a helicopter pilot, echoed this sentiment. “The government is very corrupt, and his plan is to take out these corrupt people,” he said. | Daniel Paschoal, 34, a helicopter pilot, echoed this sentiment. “The government is very corrupt, and his plan is to take out these corrupt people,” he said. |
| Brazilians can be prone to sudden, last-minute changes of opinion at election time — what Nicolau called “a wave.” He suggested that Neves might benefit from the phenomenon, and even come from behind to catch Silva. That would put him into a second-round matchup with Rousseff, giving him three weeks to try to keep the wave behind him. | Brazilians can be prone to sudden, last-minute changes of opinion at election time — what Nicolau called “a wave.” He suggested that Neves might benefit from the phenomenon, and even come from behind to catch Silva. That would put him into a second-round matchup with Rousseff, giving him three weeks to try to keep the wave behind him. |
| Correction: An earlier version of this story had incorrect figures for a poll concerning the election. |
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