Talking Horses: best bets for Monday’s racing plus our competition

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2014/oct/06/talking-horses-racing-blog-best-bets

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Monday’s best bets, by Tony Paley

Long-distance races don’t come much tougher than at Pontefract, where the stiff uphill finish finds out any doubtful stayers. The Phil Bull Conditions Stakes over two miles and two furlongs this afternoon went to Statutory (3.40) last year and the Godolphin runner can repeat the trick today.

The selection has found life difficult in handicaps of late but is favoured by the weights here and won with enough in hand in this event last term to suggest he will be well suited by the switch to a conditions race over a demanding track at this trip. The forecast rain will only make things tougher and the selection rates a solid nap.

Use Your Filbert (2.40) is fancied to make it two out of two on his handicap bow in the nursery handicap. The Robert Cowell-trained runner was a 33-1 shot on his debut but showed plenty of talent to achieve that victory while the form has been franked since.

Jeremy Noseda and Ryan Moore can team up for success with Shama’s Crown (5.20) at Windsor. The well-bred daughter was runner-up on her first start at Doncaster in early August before gaining an odds-on victory over course and distance next time. She was a good third at Sandown last time out and dropping back in trip looks the right move in the Get £10 Free At Unibet Poker Handicap.

Tipping competition – a new week

Congratulations to Paragoncup, who edged in front with a 13-8 winner on Friday to finish on +30.63, pipping waltersobchak (+29).

This week’s prize is a copy of Marten Julian’s ‘Dark Horses Jumps Guide 2014-2015’, due to be published later this month. Now almost 40 years old, this annual publication extends to 40,000 words and claims to be “packed with valuable and informed insights on recruits from France and the Irish point-to-point field and unexposed and unraced horses with the potential to progress up through the ranks”. If you don’t win, you can buy a copy here.

To kick things off, we’d like your selections, please, for these races: 3.50 Windsor, 4.30 Stratford, 4.40 Pontefract.

As ever, our champion will be the tipster who returns the best profit to notional level stakes of £1 at starting price on our nominated races, of which there will be three each day up until Friday. Non-runners count as losers.

In the event of a tie at the end of the week, the winner will be the tipster who, from among those tied on the highest score, posted their tips earliest on the final day.

For terms and conditions click here. Good luck!

Click here for all the day’s racecards, form, stats and results.

And post your tips or racing-related comments below the line.