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Could a big data-crunching machine be your boss one day? | Could a big data-crunching machine be your boss one day? |
(about 11 hours later) | |
I'm on a date with Amelia. She's neatly dressed, emotionally intelligent and whip-smart. | I'm on a date with Amelia. She's neatly dressed, emotionally intelligent and whip-smart. |
But she's a little too virtual for my tastes. | But she's a little too virtual for my tastes. |
Amelia is a "learning cognitive agent", according to her creators IPSoft - like one of those virtual customer service helpers that pop up on corporate websites. | Amelia is a "learning cognitive agent", according to her creators IPSoft - like one of those virtual customer service helpers that pop up on corporate websites. |
Only not so dumb and a lot less irritating. | Only not so dumb and a lot less irritating. |
But one day, she could end up being your boss, her makers believe. | But one day, she could end up being your boss, her makers believe. |
Machine learning | Machine learning |
Amelia can swallow textbooks whole, speak 20 languages, understand concepts and learn from her mistakes. And she can be replicated any number of times. | Amelia can swallow textbooks whole, speak 20 languages, understand concepts and learn from her mistakes. And she can be replicated any number of times. |
On my screen I see her absorb a complex engineering manual in 14 seconds then immediately answer questions such as "What are the symptoms of a bent drive shaft?" and "What causes high power demand?" | On my screen I see her absorb a complex engineering manual in 14 seconds then immediately answer questions such as "What are the symptoms of a bent drive shaft?" and "What causes high power demand?" |
This may be a far cry from Scarlett Johansson's uber-intelligent operating system Samantha in Spike Jonze's sci-fi film, Her, but it's the future, says Chetan Dube, IPSoft's chief executive. | This may be a far cry from Scarlett Johansson's uber-intelligent operating system Samantha in Spike Jonze's sci-fi film, Her, but it's the future, says Chetan Dube, IPSoft's chief executive. |
The key to Amelia's intelligence is that she can understand what you mean even if you ask the question several different ways - "what is meant, not just what is said", as Mr Dube puts it. | The key to Amelia's intelligence is that she can understand what you mean even if you ask the question several different ways - "what is meant, not just what is said", as Mr Dube puts it. |
And if she doesn't know the answer she can refer to human agents for help, observe how they handle the issue, then learn the answer for next time. | And if she doesn't know the answer she can refer to human agents for help, observe how they handle the issue, then learn the answer for next time. |
This ability to interpret context, problem solve and learn is fundamental to automating many of the business processes now performed by humans, usually in large call centres, he believes. | This ability to interpret context, problem solve and learn is fundamental to automating many of the business processes now performed by humans, usually in large call centres, he believes. |
"Machine intelligence is starting to rival human intelligence," he asserts. | "Machine intelligence is starting to rival human intelligence," he asserts. |
Algorithm director | Algorithm director |
This machine learning intelligence is starting to work its way into the boardroom. | This machine learning intelligence is starting to work its way into the boardroom. |
For example in May, a Hong Kong-based venture capital company appointed an algorithm to its board of directors. | For example in May, a Hong Kong-based venture capital company appointed an algorithm to its board of directors. |
Deep Knowledge Ventures (DKV) decided that a program, Vital, should have a say in what companies the firm invested in, based on its ability to analyse huge amounts of relevant data. | Deep Knowledge Ventures (DKV) decided that a program, Vital, should have a say in what companies the firm invested in, based on its ability to analyse huge amounts of relevant data. |
Vital was developed by Aging Analytics, a UK research agency providing life science market intelligence to pension funds, insurers and governments. | Vital was developed by Aging Analytics, a UK research agency providing life science market intelligence to pension funds, insurers and governments. |
DKV says it has a "long-term goal of developing the software to a point it is capable of autonomously allocating an investment portfolio". | DKV says it has a "long-term goal of developing the software to a point it is capable of autonomously allocating an investment portfolio". |
And IBM, the tech giant behind the Watson supercomputer - famous for beating contestants on the US quiz show Jeopardy - is developing a version of the brainbox that could contribute to board meetings and help develop strategy. | And IBM, the tech giant behind the Watson supercomputer - famous for beating contestants on the US quiz show Jeopardy - is developing a version of the brainbox that could contribute to board meetings and help develop strategy. |
Boardroom Watson would be able to transcribe everything said in a meeting, show answers to research questions on a big screen, and also come up with its own suggestions consistent with company strategy based on algorithms and big data analytics. | Boardroom Watson would be able to transcribe everything said in a meeting, show answers to research questions on a big screen, and also come up with its own suggestions consistent with company strategy based on algorithms and big data analytics. |
Worryingly for some, IBM says Watson would also be able to analyse the contributions made by each board member for usefulness and accuracy. | Worryingly for some, IBM says Watson would also be able to analyse the contributions made by each board member for usefulness and accuracy. |
Irrational | Irrational |
So does this mean Amelia, Watson and their artificially intelligent siblings are threatening to take over completely? | So does this mean Amelia, Watson and their artificially intelligent siblings are threatening to take over completely? |
The strength of computers and smart machines lies in their ability to analyse vast data sets and make decisions based on evidence alone. | The strength of computers and smart machines lies in their ability to analyse vast data sets and make decisions based on evidence alone. |
Human judgement is often clouded by irrationality, emotion and imperfect knowledge. | Human judgement is often clouded by irrationality, emotion and imperfect knowledge. |
For example, when it comes to self-driving cars, proponents argue that letting machines make decisions for us could save lives by reducing the number of road accidents. | For example, when it comes to self-driving cars, proponents argue that letting machines make decisions for us could save lives by reducing the number of road accidents. |
A sensor-laden car wirelessly linked up to a traffic monitoring supercomputer would avoid dangerous situations, display much quicker reactions, keep to speed limits, and never succumb to road rage, they argue. | A sensor-laden car wirelessly linked up to a traffic monitoring supercomputer would avoid dangerous situations, display much quicker reactions, keep to speed limits, and never succumb to road rage, they argue. |
Creative touch | Creative touch |
But what are the limits of the machine? | But what are the limits of the machine? |
Optimists believe smart robots and cognitive agents will rid us of the unskilled tasks and let us get on with what we humans are really good at - being creative. | Optimists believe smart robots and cognitive agents will rid us of the unskilled tasks and let us get on with what we humans are really good at - being creative. |
"Today, most of us are enslaved to the common chores that occupy 80% of our time," says Mr Dube. | "Today, most of us are enslaved to the common chores that occupy 80% of our time," says Mr Dube. |
"Cognitive agents will free us from the mundane and allow us, or prompt us, to elevate ourselves into higher value creation - something that requires more creative thinking." | "Cognitive agents will free us from the mundane and allow us, or prompt us, to elevate ourselves into higher value creation - something that requires more creative thinking." |
Tom Austin, of research company Gartner, agrees: "Robots can free workers for higher-priority tasks and those tasks that require the greater creativity and adaptability people provide in non-routine situations." | Tom Austin, of research company Gartner, agrees: "Robots can free workers for higher-priority tasks and those tasks that require the greater creativity and adaptability people provide in non-routine situations." |
But data analytics and algorithms can also lead us down blind alleys, believes James Quincey, Coca-Cola's Europe group president. | |
"It's easier to get lost in all the data - it can help us create a better yesterday rather than a better tomorrow," he said at a recent Institute of Directors convention at the Royal Albert Hall in London. "We still need to rely on our gut instinct and develop a richer, more instinctive understanding of the consumer." | "It's easier to get lost in all the data - it can help us create a better yesterday rather than a better tomorrow," he said at a recent Institute of Directors convention at the Royal Albert Hall in London. "We still need to rely on our gut instinct and develop a richer, more instinctive understanding of the consumer." |
Data managers? | Data managers? |
And could machines ever really manage people? | And could machines ever really manage people? |
Data analytics will certainly have a bigger part to play in quantifying employees' performance and assessing their strengths and weaknesses, experts believe. Even psychometric testing can be automated. | Data analytics will certainly have a bigger part to play in quantifying employees' performance and assessing their strengths and weaknesses, experts believe. Even psychometric testing can be automated. |
"Data scientists, people from social science, computer scientists, people from HR [human resources], former consultants - these are the groups that are really going to shape how companies will work and grow," says Ben Waber, chief executive of Sociometric Solutions, one of the contributors to a recent report called The Future Workplace. | "Data scientists, people from social science, computer scientists, people from HR [human resources], former consultants - these are the groups that are really going to shape how companies will work and grow," says Ben Waber, chief executive of Sociometric Solutions, one of the contributors to a recent report called The Future Workplace. |
But when it comes to human skills such as intuition, lateral thinking and emotional intelligence, machines lag far behind. | But when it comes to human skills such as intuition, lateral thinking and emotional intelligence, machines lag far behind. |
"Machines can at best be run-of-the-mill managers," says Mr Dube. "Thinking creatively, out of the box, for implementing better business outcomes tomorrow is a domain where, today at least, man reigns supreme." | "Machines can at best be run-of-the-mill managers," says Mr Dube. "Thinking creatively, out of the box, for implementing better business outcomes tomorrow is a domain where, today at least, man reigns supreme." |
It may be some time yet before Amelia conquers the world. | It may be some time yet before Amelia conquers the world. |
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