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| Late-season surprises shake GOP confidence in Senate elections | Late-season surprises shake GOP confidence in Senate elections |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| For months, the 2014 midterm election has looked like a deck stacked in favor of Republicans. | For months, the 2014 midterm election has looked like a deck stacked in favor of Republicans. |
| But as campaign season heads into its final weeks, some wild cards are now on the table in states where the GOP had been expecting easy victories on its way to gaining six seats for control of the Senate. | But as campaign season heads into its final weeks, some wild cards are now on the table in states where the GOP had been expecting easy victories on its way to gaining six seats for control of the Senate. |
| Election Day may not resolve things, either. If the balance stays as even as it appears now, the question of which party holds a Senate majority may not be resolved until the last ballots are counted — and perhaps recounted — in far-flung precincts of Alaska. Or maybe until runoff elections that could happen as late as January. | Election Day may not resolve things, either. If the balance stays as even as it appears now, the question of which party holds a Senate majority may not be resolved until the last ballots are counted — and perhaps recounted — in far-flung precincts of Alaska. Or maybe until runoff elections that could happen as late as January. |
| The latest twist has come in South Dakota, a conservative state with an open seat that had not been on the radar screen as a potential loss for Republicans. All of a sudden, former senator Larry Pressler — elected to that job three times as a Republican but now running as an independent — is closing in the polls with GOP nominee Mike Rounds, a former governor, and leading Democrat Rick Weiland. | The latest twist has come in South Dakota, a conservative state with an open seat that had not been on the radar screen as a potential loss for Republicans. All of a sudden, former senator Larry Pressler — elected to that job three times as a Republican but now running as an independent — is closing in the polls with GOP nominee Mike Rounds, a former governor, and leading Democrat Rick Weiland. |
| “I think this race can be won with 35 or 38 percent of the vote. There is no runoff, and that is all that may be needed,” Pressler said in an interview. Democrats — who had written off South Dakota — also seem to sense an opportunity, making a late decision this week to put $1 million into advertising and field operations in the state. | “I think this race can be won with 35 or 38 percent of the vote. There is no runoff, and that is all that may be needed,” Pressler said in an interview. Democrats — who had written off South Dakota — also seem to sense an opportunity, making a late decision this week to put $1 million into advertising and field operations in the state. |
| In deeply red Kansas, where the Democratic candidate has dropped out of the race, longtime GOP incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts is in an uphill battle against appealing newcomer Greg Orman, an independent who has not said which party he will caucus with if he wins. | In deeply red Kansas, where the Democratic candidate has dropped out of the race, longtime GOP incumbent Sen. Pat Roberts is in an uphill battle against appealing newcomer Greg Orman, an independent who has not said which party he will caucus with if he wins. |
| Meanwhile, in Georgia, Republican front-runner David Perdue has made some missteps that have helped his Democratic opponent, Michelle Nunn, ascend in the race. There is also a libertarian, Amanda Swafford, in the race. If none of the candidates gets more than 50 percent in November, the state would hold a runoff on Jan. 6 — three days after the new Senate is scheduled to be sworn in. | Meanwhile, in Georgia, Republican front-runner David Perdue has made some missteps that have helped his Democratic opponent, Michelle Nunn, ascend in the race. There is also a libertarian, Amanda Swafford, in the race. If none of the candidates gets more than 50 percent in November, the state would hold a runoff on Jan. 6 — three days after the new Senate is scheduled to be sworn in. |
| Even the year’s marquee contest has not settled down as many expected it to. The most recent Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky has Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes holding a two-point lead over Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. More significant than the margin itself is the fact that the poll shows a six-point gain for Grimes since the last time it was conducted in August. | Even the year’s marquee contest has not settled down as many expected it to. The most recent Bluegrass Poll in Kentucky has Democratic challenger Alison Lundergan Grimes holding a two-point lead over Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell. More significant than the margin itself is the fact that the poll shows a six-point gain for Grimes since the last time it was conducted in August. |
| All four Republicans may well win. But at a minimum, their unexpectedly precarious situations have the party sweating and considering whether to divert more resources into states they thought they would be taking for granted. | All four Republicans may well win. But at a minimum, their unexpectedly precarious situations have the party sweating and considering whether to divert more resources into states they thought they would be taking for granted. |
| “We don’t know how any of this will turn out, but there are at least some possibilities that didn’t seem likely even a few weeks ago,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. “It shows that Senate races are not just about national trends. The candidates and the local circumstances do matter.” | “We don’t know how any of this will turn out, but there are at least some possibilities that didn’t seem likely even a few weeks ago,” said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman. “It shows that Senate races are not just about national trends. The candidates and the local circumstances do matter.” |
| The GOP was already facing the possibility of libertarian spoilers in a number of states, including North Carolina, where Sen. Kay Hagan (D) is leading GOP candidate Thom Tillis. | The GOP was already facing the possibility of libertarian spoilers in a number of states, including North Carolina, where Sen. Kay Hagan (D) is leading GOP candidate Thom Tillis. |
| GOP donors are uneasy. At private fundraising receptions this month for Senate Republicans, some of them brought up concerns about Roberts. | GOP donors are uneasy. At private fundraising receptions this month for Senate Republicans, some of them brought up concerns about Roberts. |
| Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who serves as vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said he has reassured funders that Roberts has enlisted “top flight professionals” to revive his flagging campaign. | Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), who serves as vice chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said he has reassured funders that Roberts has enlisted “top flight professionals” to revive his flagging campaign. |
| “People want to know what is likely to happen there,” Portman said. “That’s the one state where we had hoped to avoid spending any money.” | “People want to know what is likely to happen there,” Portman said. “That’s the one state where we had hoped to avoid spending any money.” |
| Republicans’ fraying nerves, however, have been a boon to the NRSC, which raised $15.5 million in a record-setting September haul. The campaign arm for Senate Democrats has yet to release its September fundraising totals, but they have outraised Republicans overall this year. | Republicans’ fraying nerves, however, have been a boon to the NRSC, which raised $15.5 million in a record-setting September haul. The campaign arm for Senate Democrats has yet to release its September fundraising totals, but they have outraised Republicans overall this year. |
| “I think they understand the stakes,” Portman said of the party’s top backers. | “I think they understand the stakes,” Portman said of the party’s top backers. |
| Late-season surprises are not unheard of in politics. | Late-season surprises are not unheard of in politics. |
| “In every cycle, races come onto the map toward the end,” said Justin Barasky, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “But in this cycle, it is happening even later.” | “In every cycle, races come onto the map toward the end,” said Justin Barasky, communications director for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. “But in this cycle, it is happening even later.” |
| On the other side of the ledger, some contests once thought competitive are sliding off the screen. | On the other side of the ledger, some contests once thought competitive are sliding off the screen. |
| Facing a need to concentrate on the most winnable states, GOP officials have largely given up on winning the Senate race in Michigan, where Republican Terri Lynn Land and Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) are competing for retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat. This week, the NRSC pulled nearly $1 million in planned ad buys for the contest. | Facing a need to concentrate on the most winnable states, GOP officials have largely given up on winning the Senate race in Michigan, where Republican Terri Lynn Land and Rep. Gary Peters (D-Mich.) are competing for retiring Sen. Carl Levin’s seat. This week, the NRSC pulled nearly $1 million in planned ad buys for the contest. |
| Saul Anuzis, a former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, said state Republicans are unhappy with the move. “The symbolism sends a bad message,” he said. “The reality is that we all realize they’re playing nationally, we get it, but it would have been better if they hadn’t pulled out.” | Saul Anuzis, a former chairman of the Michigan Republican Party, said state Republicans are unhappy with the move. “The symbolism sends a bad message,” he said. “The reality is that we all realize they’re playing nationally, we get it, but it would have been better if they hadn’t pulled out.” |
| Anuzis also said national Republicans have relayed to state party leaders that they will need to rely on outside groups to fill Land’s coffers from here on. | Anuzis also said national Republicans have relayed to state party leaders that they will need to rely on outside groups to fill Land’s coffers from here on. |
| Ending Spending, a Republican-leaning outfit founded by conservative investor Joe Ricketts, whose family owns the Chicago Cubs, has already funneled than $5 million into the state. Liberal groups such as NextGen Climate Action, which is funded by environmentalist and hedge-fund manager Tom Steyer, have spent millions in Michigan as well. | Ending Spending, a Republican-leaning outfit founded by conservative investor Joe Ricketts, whose family owns the Chicago Cubs, has already funneled than $5 million into the state. Liberal groups such as NextGen Climate Action, which is funded by environmentalist and hedge-fund manager Tom Steyer, have spent millions in Michigan as well. |
| Republicans have also been counting on an “enthusiasm gap” to carry them over the finish line. Polls show their base is more excited about voting than Democrats are. | Republicans have also been counting on an “enthusiasm gap” to carry them over the finish line. Polls show their base is more excited about voting than Democrats are. |
| But in states where establishment Republicans toppled tea party insurgents in primaries, such as Kentucky, Kansas and Alaska, the GOP is struggling to rally activists who feel their favorites were wronged. | |
| Conservative firebrand Chris McDaniel, a Mississippi state senator who was defeated by Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) in a June primary, said he expects many of his hard-right supporters from around the country to stay home in November in order to send a message to the national party. | Conservative firebrand Chris McDaniel, a Mississippi state senator who was defeated by Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) in a June primary, said he expects many of his hard-right supporters from around the country to stay home in November in order to send a message to the national party. |
| “Conservatives feel betrayed by elements within the Republican Party,” said McDaniel, who is challenging Cochran’s victory in state courts. “It’s always regrettable when people decline to take part, but thousands of them will, and I understand their frustration.” | “Conservatives feel betrayed by elements within the Republican Party,” said McDaniel, who is challenging Cochran’s victory in state courts. “It’s always regrettable when people decline to take part, but thousands of them will, and I understand their frustration.” |