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In North Korean Media, No Sign of Kim Jong-un at Key Ritual
Kim Jong-un’s Absence at Ritual Fires North Korea Rumors
(about 11 hours later)
SEOUL, South Korea — Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader, who has been absent from public view for more than a month, skipped an important annual ritual on Friday, a development likely to fuel further speculation about his whereabouts and even about his grip on power.
SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, who has been absent from public view for more than a month, skipped an important annual ritual on Friday, a development likely to fuel further speculation about whether he has lost his grip on power.
Friday was the 69th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. Since taking over the top leadership position following the death of his father, the longtime ruler Kim Jong-il, in late 2011, Mr. Kim had marked the beginning of this important national holiday by leading top military and party officials to pay a midnight visit to the Kumsusan mausoleum in Pyongyang. By tradition, such a visit would have taken place at midnight Thursday.
The state news media hinted Friday that he might be ill though still in charge, lending support to one of the many theories swirling among analysts, the media and others who closely watch the nuclear-armed and notoriously opaque nation. Friday was the anniversary of the founding of the governing Worker’s Party and he ordinarily would have been expected to visit the mausoleum where his grandfather — the country’s founder — and his father lie in state.
But on Friday, the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency did not list Mr. Kim among the top officials who had paid tribute at the gigantic Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where the mummified bodies of Mr. Kim’s father and his grandfather, the founding president of North Korea, Kim Il-sung, lie in state. The mausoleum is among the most sacred places in the country, which is ruled with a personality cult surrounding the Kim family, and a visit there during a national holiday is an important leadership ritual.
The news came as tensions ticked up on the divided peninsula, as South and North Korea exchanged machine-gun fire across their heavily armed border over the release of leaflets from the South meant to convince North Koreans to turn against the Kim family’s dynastic rule. South Korean activists periodically release the leaflets, which are carried north by large balloons.
The North Korean news media made no mention of Mr. Kim’s absence on Friday. But the country’s main state-run newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, provided a hint that he was ill: It carried an article saying that pro-North Korean figures from abroad had sent Mr. Kim baskets of flowers on the occasion of the party’s anniversary and that in the ribbons attached to the flowers, they wrote that they “wished for Marshal Kim Jong-un’s good health.”
The North fired first on Friday, the South said, and the South returned fire toward a North Korean guard post after broadcasting a warning that it was about to start shooting.
Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the research organization Sejong Institute in South Korea, said it was highly unusual for such ribbons to mention Mr. Kim’s health, rather than congratulating him on the party’s anniversary.
No damage or casualties were reported after the exchange of fire. Although firing over the land border and the demilitarized zone in between the countries is not unprecedented, it has become unusual enough in recent years that South Korean television stations cut into their regular programs to report the episode as urgent news.
North Korea, a police state that tightly controls the information that reaches its people, has bristled at the dissemination of the leaflets, which are often sent by North Korean defectors who have settled in the south. The booklets usually contain Christian messages or criticize Mr. Kim and the state’s network of gulags for dissenters. Mr. Kim is often depicted in the messages as a pig or called a “depraved child” for executing an uncle last year in what some analysts believe was a power struggle.
Some leaflets also include data illustrating the growing income gap between South Korea, an economic powerhouse, and the impoverished North.
The recent flurry of rumors over Mr. Kim’s whereabouts were fueled in part by footage showing him limping. But because there is often political intrigue in North Korea, much of the speculation has centered on whether he lost out in a power struggle to disgruntled generals or other elites. Officials and analysts in South Korea and the United States have so far cast doubt on that theory, since there have been no signs of unrest or unusual troop movements in the North.
The White House said Friday that rumors of a military coup in North Korea appear to be “false,” the South Korean news agency Yonhap reported.
Mr. Kim in the past has celebrated the anniversary of the Workers’ Party by paying a visit to the Kumsusan mausoleum. But on Friday, the North’s state-run Korean Central News Agency did not list Mr. Kim among the top officials who had paid tribute at the site, one of the most sacred places in a country that is ruled with a personality cult surrounding the Kim family.
Although the North Korean news media did not call attention to Mr. Kim’s absence, the country’s main state-run newspaper, Rodong Sinmun, suggested that he was ill. It carried an article saying that pro-North Korean figures from abroad had sent Mr. Kim baskets of flowers for the anniversary and that ribbons attached to the flowers “wished for Marshal Kim Jong-un’s good health.”
Cheong Seong-chang, an analyst at the Sejong Institute research group in South Korea, said it was highly unusual for such ribbons to mention Mr. Kim’s health, rather than congratulating him on the party anniversary.
“Given that the ribbons carried exactly the same message, it was clear that the message was dictated by the party,” said Mr. Cheong. “Unlike his father, who used to keep his health problems secret, he is letting his people know so that he can win sympathy from them.”
“Given that the ribbons carried exactly the same message, it was clear that the message was dictated by the party,” said Mr. Cheong. “Unlike his father, who used to keep his health problems secret, he is letting his people know so that he can win sympathy from them.”
When the North’s state-run Korean Central Television confirmed late last month that Mr. Kim was “not feeling well” and showed him limping during a visit to a factory in August, it cited that as an example of his hard-working style. North Korean television has occasionally shown Mr. Kim limping since July — a highly unusual move for North Korean media, whose coverage of the top leader is closely censored.
When the North’s state-run Korean Central Television confirmed late last month that Mr. Kim was “not feeling well” and showed him limping during a visit to a factory in August, it cited that as an example of his hard-working style.
During the party anniversary last year, Mr. Kim and his wife, Ri Sol-ju, also attended the performance of a national choir and the dedication ceremonies of new buildings. As of Friday evening, there was no report from the North of Mr. Kim’s having done anything similar this year.
On Friday, the North Korean news agency KCNA indicated that Mr. Kim remained in control, saying that a basket of flowers sent by him had been placed before the statues of his father and his grandfather.
But the North Korean news agency indicated that Mr. Kim remained in control, saying that a basket of flowers sent by him had been placed before the statues of his father and his grandfather.
Analysts had cautioned that even if Mr. Kim was a no-show this year, it would not be too unusual. Mr. Kim’s father often skipped a visit to the mausoleum during the party’s anniversary.
On Friday, Rodong Sinmun carried a full front-page editorial calling for the “monolithic leadership” of Mr. Kim as “the only center” of power. The paper carried a large photo of Mr. Kim’s father and grandfather standing together on the front page, but no image of the current leader.
In Seoul, Lim Byeong-cheol, a government spokesman, said South Korea believed that Mr. Kim’s rule was “functioning normally.” He added that a delegation of top North Korean officials who visited the South on Saturday had relayed Mr. Kim’s greetings to President Park Geun-hye.
Speculation about Mr. Kim’s status has been growing in recent weeks, with the North Korean media having reported no public appearance by him since Sept. 3, when he was said to have attended a music concert. His father often disappeared from the public eye for weeks at a time. But this has been the longest such absence by Mr. Kim, who had appeared to be bolstering his youthful leadership with frequent visits to factories and farms.
While he was absent from public view, Mr. Kim continued his work, sending letters to young party cadets and workers, according to the North Korean media, which is, as usual, filled with hagiographical propaganda for Mr. Kim.
South Korean officials and analysts have said that the young and overweight North Korean leader may be suffering from health problems, such as gout or sciatica. His forebears were also overweight and were said to have ailments attributed to their luxurious lifestyles, such as diabetes. One Seoul-based website run by defectors from North Korea who said they had secret informers within the country recently reported that much of Mr. Kim’s daily duties had been taken over by his younger sister, Kim Yo-jong, while Mr. Kim was going through extensive treatment, with the help of foreign doctors, for health issues caused by his “excessive eating and drinking.”
It is widely believed among outside analysts that Mr. Kim deliberately gained weight to resemble his late grandfather, a godlike figure among North Koreans. Mr. Kim, already rotund by the time he took power, has recently gained more weight, according to television footage from the North.
But on the Internet, bloggers went further, spreading rumors, with no corroborating evidence, that Mr. Kim, widely believed to be about 30, might have been sidelined by a coup engineered by old, disgruntled generals.
Kim Yong-hyun, a North Korea expert at Dongguk University in Seoul, dismissed those rumors and said he believed that Mr. Kim’s trouble was “not political but orthopedic.” He said that the North Korean leader had reasons to want to show up on Friday, such as a need to dispel the rumors and show that he was in control.
“But there is also a chance that he won’t really bother to show up,” Professor Kim said before the ceremony. After all, this year was the 69th anniversary of the party, not the 70th, which North Korea is expected to mark with far bigger ceremonies than usual, including a military parade, as it did during the 60th and 65th anniversaries, he said.
Analysts cautioned that even if the leader did not make a midnight visit to the Kumsusan mausoleum this year, it should not be seen as too unusual. Mr. Kim’s father, during his rule, often skipped a visit to the mausoleum during the party anniversary.
But the longer Mr. Kim’s absence, the more elaborate and wild the rumors may become.
Mr. Cheong, the Sejong Institute analyst, saw no immediate challenge to the rule of Mr. Kim, who had engineered purges and reshuffles in the top military and party ranks to fill them with people loyal to him.
But an extended absence from public view, Mr. Cheong said, could spell trouble for Mr. Kim because some of the elite might see it as a sign his influence is weakening. In the North, leading visits to military units, farms and factories to give “on-site guidance” has been an important and highly visible way for the top leader to establish his authority.
“Kim Jong-un’s health problem can spawn unease inside the North Korean leadership and prompt them to respond more sensitively to the outside world,” Mr. Cheong said. “If that happens, they may shift to more bellicose stances, for instance, launching a long-range rocket or conducting its fourth nuclear test, in order to consolidate its internal solidarity.”
