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| Labour facing complete annihilation in Scotland as poll reveals party could win as few as four seats | |
| (34 minutes later) | |
| Labour is facing the prospect of political annihilation in Scotland at the next election, a new poll suggests today, losing more than thirty of its seats in Westminster to the SNP. | Labour is facing the prospect of political annihilation in Scotland at the next election, a new poll suggests today, losing more than thirty of its seats in Westminster to the SNP. |
| The Ipsos Mori survey, commissioned by Scottish Television, found Labour in Scotland is currently polling at just 23 per cent while support for the SNP has surged to 52 per cent. | The Ipsos Mori survey, commissioned by Scottish Television, found Labour in Scotland is currently polling at just 23 per cent while support for the SNP has surged to 52 per cent. |
| If replicated at the General Election it would leave Labour with just four Scottish MPs down from its current 41 seats. In contrast it would see the SNP win 54 seats compared to its current six MPs. | If replicated at the General Election it would leave Labour with just four Scottish MPs down from its current 41 seats. In contrast it would see the SNP win 54 seats compared to its current six MPs. |
| The Tories would lose the only seat they currently hold in Scotland while the Lib Dems would lose all but one of its 11 current Scottish MPs. | The Tories would lose the only seat they currently hold in Scotland while the Lib Dems would lose all but one of its 11 current Scottish MPs. |
| Such a result would have profound implications for Labour’s chances of securing an overall majority at the next election and will be greeted with alarm by party strategists. | Such a result would have profound implications for Labour’s chances of securing an overall majority at the next election and will be greeted with alarm by party strategists. |
| It underlines the need for the party to elect a strong candidate to replace Johann Lamont who resigned issuing a stinging rebuke against the national party. | It underlines the need for the party to elect a strong candidate to replace Johann Lamont who resigned issuing a stinging rebuke against the national party. |
| The full breakdown of the poll is SNP 52 per cent, Scottish Labour 23 per cent, Scottish Conservatives 10 per cent, Scottish Liberal Democrats 6 per cent. The Green Party were on 6 per cent, Ukip 2 per cent. | The full breakdown of the poll is SNP 52 per cent, Scottish Labour 23 per cent, Scottish Conservatives 10 per cent, Scottish Liberal Democrats 6 per cent. The Green Party were on 6 per cent, Ukip 2 per cent. |
| The survey was carried out between October 22 and 29 as the row broke over leadership of the Scottish Labour party. Participants were asked how they would vote if there was a general election tomorrow. | The survey was carried out between October 22 and 29 as the row broke over leadership of the Scottish Labour party. Participants were asked how they would vote if there was a general election tomorrow. |
| At the 2010 general election Labour received 42 per cent of the Scottish vote and the SNP 19.9 per cent. | At the 2010 general election Labour received 42 per cent of the Scottish vote and the SNP 19.9 per cent. |
| But polls conducted since the Scottish independence referendum have suggested a sharp decline in Labour support although nothing on the scale found by this survey. | But polls conducted since the Scottish independence referendum have suggested a sharp decline in Labour support although nothing on the scale found by this survey. |
| Those who would lose their seats if the poll results were replicated next May include Jim Murphy, who is standing to be the next leader of Scottish Labour, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran, according to seat predictor electoralcalculus.co.uk. The site assumes uniform swings across constituencies. | Those who would lose their seats if the poll results were replicated next May include Jim Murphy, who is standing to be the next leader of Scottish Labour, Douglas Alexander and Margaret Curran, according to seat predictor electoralcalculus.co.uk. The site assumes uniform swings across constituencies. |
| The only Scottish Labour MPs who would survive would be Willie Bain in Glasgow North East, Tom Clarke in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and Ian Davidson in Glasgow South West. | The only Scottish Labour MPs who would survive would be Willie Bain in Glasgow North East, Tom Clarke in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill, Gordon Brown in Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath and Ian Davidson in Glasgow South West. |
| The Liberal Democrats would lose all but one of their seats, with only Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael surviving and high-profile victims including Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy. | The Liberal Democrats would lose all but one of their seats, with only Scottish secretary Alistair Carmichael surviving and high-profile victims including Danny Alexander and Charles Kennedy. |
| Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos MORI Scotland said: “The poll gives a further boost to the SNP ahead of their upcoming conference and the formal announcement of Nicola Sturgeon becoming the new first Minister. | Mark Diffley, Director at Ipsos MORI Scotland said: “The poll gives a further boost to the SNP ahead of their upcoming conference and the formal announcement of Nicola Sturgeon becoming the new first Minister. |
| “At the same time it will be particularly unwelcome news for the Labour party after a bruising period since the referendum, culminating in Johan Lamont’s resignation last week. They will hope that this represents a trough in public support and that their upcoming leadership contest will allow them to begin to regain some of the support they have lost.” | “At the same time it will be particularly unwelcome news for the Labour party after a bruising period since the referendum, culminating in Johan Lamont’s resignation last week. They will hope that this represents a trough in public support and that their upcoming leadership contest will allow them to begin to regain some of the support they have lost.” |