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Scotland would now vote for independence, poll finds Scotland would now vote for independence, poll finds
(about 9 hours later)
Scotland would vote yes to independence if another referendum were held today – just six weeks after a majority voted no, a poll has found. The race to lead the Labour party in Scotland has intensified with further union backing for left-wing candidate Neil Findlay and visible support from elected members for centrist Jim Murphy.
Independence now has the backing of 52% of people in Scotland compared with 48% for the union, a YouGov poll for the Times has found. Unison, Scotland’s largest trade union, has joined transport union Aslef in backing Findlay, while Unite poured scorn on Murphy’s campaign launch in Edinburgh on Saturday.
When those who would not vote or do not know are included, the split is 49% for yes and 45% for no, the poll of 1,078 Scottish adults between 27 and 30 October found. Alistair Darling, former chancellor and Better Together chairman, turned out in support of Murphy, alongside MSPs John Pentland, James Kelly and Hanzala Malik, as well as Glasgow city council leader Gordon Matheson.
Murphy said he wanted to reclaim Labour as “the national party of Scotland”, insisting he would hold all of the seats that two polls last week predicted Labour would spectacularly lose, and reverse the growing appetite for another independence referendum.
Separate polls for The Times and STV predicted that Labour would lose a quarter of their Scottish MPs at best, and could be on course to lose 90%, leaving a rump of just four.
On Friday, Findlay insisted the party was in trouble unless it devised policies that people “recognise as Labour”.
Unite said it was finding it “extremely difficult to find much hope” in what Murphy had offered so far.
Findlay has set himself against Trident nuclear weapons and expressed sympathy for full devolution of income tax, while Murphy has spoken out against unilateral disarmament and remained cagey over his own fiscal devolution proposals.
Murphy pledged to reveal more about his tax plans in the coming weeks, but he dismissed Gordon Brown’s warning that full devolution of income tax was a Tory trap designed to strip Scottish MPs of their voting rights.
Speaking in Edinburgh, Murphy said: “At our best we have always been the national party of Scotland. Many Scots need us back – and I’m here to say we’re coming back.”
Further data from The Times poll suggested 52% of Scots now backed independence, with the STV poll finding that two-thirds wanted another referendum within a decade.
When those who would not vote or do not know are included, the split was 49% for Yes and 45% for No, the poll of 1,078 Scottish adults between 27 and 30 October found.
Scotland voted 55% in favour of keeping the UK together in the referendum on 18 September.Scotland voted 55% in favour of keeping the UK together in the referendum on 18 September.
Two-fifths of people think a second poll will be held within the next 10 years, slightly more (45%) want this to happen but 16% never want another one, the poll found. Murphy said: “There is a sense that politicians have to go on and deliver the degree of devolution, we have to honour our commitments in the referendum so that we have a more powerful and influential parliament. I think once that’s done these numbers will change, of course.”
It comes on the back of a separate Ipsos Mori poll for STV on Friday which found two-thirds of Scots want another independence referendum within the next 10 years while more than half think a vote on the country’s future should take place within just five years. Looking ahead to the general election, he said: “We will win all of the seats we currently have – what we have we will hold.
Saturday’s YouGov/Times poll also found 43% of Labour supporters now back independence, with only 22% saying Labour represents their interests well against 65% who say it represents them badly. “I know how we can do that. It’s going to take a lot of work, I’m confident we can do it and that will be a great springboard for 2016 when I know with even more work, a great deal of passion and a love of our country we can have the determination to change what is wrong with our country.
Data from the same poll released on Friday suggests the party is facing a near wipeout in Scotland, with the SNP enjoying a 16-point lead on Westminster voting intentions. “If I didn’t believe we can win in 2015 and 2016 I wouldn’t be standing for leader.”
The Scottish Labour leader Johann Lamont quit a week ago complaining that UK Labour treats Scotland like a “branch office”. He said: “I’m not going to do the Alex Salmond thing of going up and down and making multiple journeys between the two parliaments.
New data released on Saturday suggests only 3% of people feel Scottish Labour has a lot of freedom to pursue different policies from the UK party, while a quarter said it has none at all. “The fact is things have changed in Scotland, Holyrood is changing, more decisions are going to be taken here in Scotland and I want to be part of that.”
Nearly three-fifths of people (58%) said Lamont was right to quit against 11% who said she was wrong. Findlay, who attended a union hustings in Glasgow on Saturday, said: “The vision Labour needs is one of creating jobs, building houses and providing college places. We should be listening to the people – like them, I want an end to youth unemployment, to address the crisis in social care and provide working people with a fair wage and dignity through a decent job.
“That’s the vision I think that the Scottish people want to see.”
Unison Scotland’s Labour link chair Gordon McKay said: “Neil understands that politics as usual isn’t good enough and we believe he offers a fresh approach with a real experience and understanding of the concerns of working people.”
Pat Rafferty, leader of Unite in Scotland, said: “Mr Murphy needs to put away his Irn Bru crate and start setting out what he stands for.”