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England can’t win the World Cup this autumn, but maybe they can lose it England can’t win the World Cup this autumn, but maybe they can lose it
(35 minutes later)
Rewind, for a moment, to 2002. England, then as now, were a year out from a World Cup they were desperately keen to win. Their autumn schedule consisted of New Zealand first up, followed by Australia and South Africa.Rewind, for a moment, to 2002. England, then as now, were a year out from a World Cup they were desperately keen to win. Their autumn schedule consisted of New Zealand first up, followed by Australia and South Africa.
The outcome? By the end of a hectic November all three southern hemisphere rivals had been beaten at Twickenham by a home side who averaged four tries per game in the process.The outcome? By the end of a hectic November all three southern hemisphere rivals had been beaten at Twickenham by a home side who averaged four tries per game in the process.
Some of the participants – Phil Christophers, James Simpson-Daniel, Ben Johnston, Tim Stimpson – were not destined to share in the fame which bathed the 2003 champions in a permanent golden glow. Collectively, though, it was a period in which England started to believe they could achieve just about anything. By the time they played Australia again in the World Cup final in Sydney, having beaten the All Blacks in Wellington en route in the summer of 2003, they were Martini winners: any time, any place, anywhere.Some of the participants – Phil Christophers, James Simpson-Daniel, Ben Johnston, Tim Stimpson – were not destined to share in the fame which bathed the 2003 champions in a permanent golden glow. Collectively, though, it was a period in which England started to believe they could achieve just about anything. By the time they played Australia again in the World Cup final in Sydney, having beaten the All Blacks in Wellington en route in the summer of 2003, they were Martini winners: any time, any place, anywhere.
More than a decade on, the November of 2014 has a similar resonance for Stuart Lancaster’s England, as well as Wales, Ireland and Scotland. Get it right now and the next 11 months can be spent fine-tuning rather than frantically scribbling new material. For England, the rat-a-tat arrival of New Zealand, South Africa, Samoa and Australia is essentially a World Cup in miniature, as it will be for Wales who are tackling the same big three plus Fiji.More than a decade on, the November of 2014 has a similar resonance for Stuart Lancaster’s England, as well as Wales, Ireland and Scotland. Get it right now and the next 11 months can be spent fine-tuning rather than frantically scribbling new material. For England, the rat-a-tat arrival of New Zealand, South Africa, Samoa and Australia is essentially a World Cup in miniature, as it will be for Wales who are tackling the same big three plus Fiji.
How interesting, then, to hear the various parties positioning themselves in advance. Warren Gatland, cleverly, has been talking about the World Cup as his team’s Olympics, painting everything that happens between now and then as a glorified aperitif.How interesting, then, to hear the various parties positioning themselves in advance. Warren Gatland, cleverly, has been talking about the World Cup as his team’s Olympics, painting everything that happens between now and then as a glorified aperitif.
Lancaster, on the other hand, has been urging his team to start delivering now, regardless of injuries. There is a game within a game occurring here, with the public not always receiving the same messages being relayed to players behind closed doors.Lancaster, on the other hand, has been urging his team to start delivering now, regardless of injuries. There is a game within a game occurring here, with the public not always receiving the same messages being relayed to players behind closed doors.
It makes it a fascinating month in all kinds of ways, perhaps the most psychologically gripping since the distant days of 2002. Any New Zealand visit to Twickenham is a big deal but England’s management will have more than one eye on events at the Millennium Stadium where Wales and Australia meet on Saturday. Those two are in England’s World Cup pool next autumn; all three will feel they can be better in 11 months’ time than they are now. Imagine, then, what a win over the Wallabies this weekend would do for Welsh morale in the interim – or, conversely, the prevailing mood if they again flatter to deceive against southern hemisphere opposition.It makes it a fascinating month in all kinds of ways, perhaps the most psychologically gripping since the distant days of 2002. Any New Zealand visit to Twickenham is a big deal but England’s management will have more than one eye on events at the Millennium Stadium where Wales and Australia meet on Saturday. Those two are in England’s World Cup pool next autumn; all three will feel they can be better in 11 months’ time than they are now. Imagine, then, what a win over the Wallabies this weekend would do for Welsh morale in the interim – or, conversely, the prevailing mood if they again flatter to deceive against southern hemisphere opposition.
It is a similar story for the new Australia coach, Michael Cheika, only a fortnight into a job which has not ended happily for his two most recent predecessors. Beat Gatland’s Wales and the slight hint of weariness and structural uncertainty visible in last weekend’s Barbarians fixture will melt away. Lose and it makes their final tour fixture back at Twickenham against England an absolute must-win.It is a similar story for the new Australia coach, Michael Cheika, only a fortnight into a job which has not ended happily for his two most recent predecessors. Beat Gatland’s Wales and the slight hint of weariness and structural uncertainty visible in last weekend’s Barbarians fixture will melt away. Lose and it makes their final tour fixture back at Twickenham against England an absolute must-win.
There is one stress-busting short-cut for all three sides: score three tries per game and, more often than not, victory will eventuate. It is what sets New Zealand apart from the rest; even when they played moderately by their own high standards against Australia in Brisbane last month, they still finished with four tries. There is one stress-busting short cut for all three sides: score three tries per game and, more often than not, victory will eventuate. It is what sets New Zealand apart from the rest; even when they played moderately by their own high standards against Australia in Brisbane last month, they still finished with four tries.
The question, then, is less whether England and Wales can contain New Zealand than whether they can assert themselves for long enough – and be sufficiently ruthless when it matters – to impose the kind of scoreboard pressure the All Blacks habitually apply. Wales already know this, having scored three tries against South Africa in Nelspruit in June only to lose 31-30 courtesy of a late penalty try and a couple of costly yellow cards.The question, then, is less whether England and Wales can contain New Zealand than whether they can assert themselves for long enough – and be sufficiently ruthless when it matters – to impose the kind of scoreboard pressure the All Blacks habitually apply. Wales already know this, having scored three tries against South Africa in Nelspruit in June only to lose 31-30 courtesy of a late penalty try and a couple of costly yellow cards.
Ireland, similarly, will be aching to derail the improving Springboks to atone for their frustrating loss to New Zealand last winter. They also have injury problems but Joe Schmidt will be challenging them to rise above such distractions and demonstrate their current IRB world ranking of fifth is fully justified.Ireland, similarly, will be aching to derail the improving Springboks to atone for their frustrating loss to New Zealand last winter. They also have injury problems but Joe Schmidt will be challenging them to rise above such distractions and demonstrate their current IRB world ranking of fifth is fully justified.
Can Scotland finally regain some momentum under Vern Cotter? Are France less of a basket case? Might even Fiji cause an upset in Marseille this weekend?Can Scotland finally regain some momentum under Vern Cotter? Are France less of a basket case? Might even Fiji cause an upset in Marseille this weekend?
And whither England? In three Tests in New Zealand in June they scored four tries, conceded nine and lost the series 3-0. Courtney Lawes acknowledges that a fifth consecutive loss to the All Blacks inside 12 months would be less than ideal but insists the home players will retain the courage of their convictions. “I still think the game at the weekend is more about us; how we want to play and how we react to circumstances that aren’t going our way,” said the Northampton lock. Like Gatland, he is not entirely convinced World Cup destinies are shaped a year early. “I don’t think we can base what the World Cup is going to be like on these next four Tests, but of course it’s a stepping stone towards the tournament.”And whither England? In three Tests in New Zealand in June they scored four tries, conceded nine and lost the series 3-0. Courtney Lawes acknowledges that a fifth consecutive loss to the All Blacks inside 12 months would be less than ideal but insists the home players will retain the courage of their convictions. “I still think the game at the weekend is more about us; how we want to play and how we react to circumstances that aren’t going our way,” said the Northampton lock. Like Gatland, he is not entirely convinced World Cup destinies are shaped a year early. “I don’t think we can base what the World Cup is going to be like on these next four Tests, but of course it’s a stepping stone towards the tournament.”
We shall find out soon enough, with the opening weekend poised to reveal plenty. If New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Samoa and Fiji complete a clean sweep of away wins, it could be a depressing month for the Six Nations’ finest. If, on the contrary, the rugby men of Europe strike early their outlook will be utterly transformed, as England’s was in 2002. World Cup finals last just 80 minutes but world champion teams are not created overnight.We shall find out soon enough, with the opening weekend poised to reveal plenty. If New Zealand, Australia, South Africa, Argentina, Samoa and Fiji complete a clean sweep of away wins, it could be a depressing month for the Six Nations’ finest. If, on the contrary, the rugby men of Europe strike early their outlook will be utterly transformed, as England’s was in 2002. World Cup finals last just 80 minutes but world champion teams are not created overnight.
Who dares winsWho dares wins
The Barbarians did not, ultimately, beat Australia last weekend but they regained plenty of friends. In school and club teams all over the country scrum-halves will now be thinking about “doing a Tomás Cubelli” and playmakers will be practising their floated Tim Nanai-Williams offloads. As someone said about Nick Cummins, who knew that Bjorn Borg impersonations are suddenly a thing? In an increasingly brutal professional sport, anything which exercises players’ imaginations and lifts the soul has to be beneficial for all. As Sir John Kirwan, the Barbarians’ coach, said afterwards: “We just need to realise rugby is a different game and have weekends like this.” The Barbarians did not, ultimately, beat Australia last weekend but they regained plenty of friends. In school and club teams all over the country scrum-halves will now be thinking about “doing a Tomás Cubelli” and playmakers will be practising their floated Tim Nanai-Williams offloads. As someone said about Nick Cummins, who knew that Bjorn Borg impersonations are suddenly a thing? In an increasingly brutal professional sport, anything which exercises players’ imaginations and lifts the soul has to be beneficial for all. As Sir John Kirwan, the Barbarians coach, said afterwards: “We just need to realise rugby is a different game and have weekends like this.”
One to watch this weekOne to watch this week
England v New Zealand. The next time the All Blacks head for Twickenham it will be World Cup time. Losing to South Africa and being run close by Australia appears to have pricked Kiwi pride, as the US Eagles discovered in Chicago. England have a depleted scrum but do not lack for incentive either. With Nigel Owens refereeing, all the ingredients for a ding-dong contest are in place. If the home side are well beaten they are fated to be reminded of the result throughout 2015. More likely is another tense thriller which suggests the gap between the two sides is narrowing.England v New Zealand. The next time the All Blacks head for Twickenham it will be World Cup time. Losing to South Africa and being run close by Australia appears to have pricked Kiwi pride, as the US Eagles discovered in Chicago. England have a depleted scrum but do not lack for incentive either. With Nigel Owens refereeing, all the ingredients for a ding-dong contest are in place. If the home side are well beaten they are fated to be reminded of the result throughout 2015. More likely is another tense thriller which suggests the gap between the two sides is narrowing.