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Rochester and Strood by-election: What next for the parties? Rochester and Strood: What result means party-by-party
(about 3 hours later)
The by-election in Rochester and Strood in north Kent was the 21st contest for a Westminster seat since the last general election in 2010. Before we look at the by election party by party, let's sum it up in a sentence.
In nearly half of those races, the story of the by-election has been UKIP: they have finished second in eight - and as of this morning, won two. It was a great night for UKIP, a bruising night for the Conservatives, Labour and the Liberal Democrats.
UKIPUKIP
For a party that began life in a dusty office at the London School of Economics, when Sir John Major was prime minister, it has been quite a couple of months. Before we start dissecting margins of victory, let's step back for a moment. For years winning a seat at Westminster was the itch UKIP was desperate to scratch, but couldn't.
What began as the Anti-Federalist League in 1991 became the UK Independence Party - and is now making the political weather. It has now done it twice in as many months.
But for years, the itch UKIP just couldn't scratch was winning a seat in the Commons. UKIP has two elected MPs - two MPs who can stand up and make life awkward in the Commons for the bigger parties, two MPs who are walking and talking proof the party can win elections to the Commons.
Now, just 42 days after taking their first seat, when Douglas Carswell won Clacton in Essex, they have another in Rochester and Strood. Psychologically that is huge. Huge for UKIP, and hugely wounding for the big three parties are Westminster.
Psychologically, a UKIP victory will be hugely important to the party. Some discounted UKIP's breakthrough in Clacton as an inevitable consequence of being verdantly fertile territory for Nigel Farage's outfit. Granted, Mark Reckless's margin of victory in Rochester and Strood was much smaller than Douglas Carswell's in Clacton. But, as UKIP activists will fall over themselves to remind us, this was much less fertile territory for them than the Essex coast.
But expect UKIP to remind us regularly that Rochester and Strood was only 271 on its list of winnable seats, when Clacton was first. "There is no such thing as a safe seat," may just be a sound bite you catch tumbling from the mouths of celebrating Ukippers. And only a few weeks ago any sort of win for UKIP here looked a tall order. But they managed it.
ConservativesConservatives
Mark Reckless really did pick his moment to tear up his long-held Conservative Party membership card, sign up to UKIP and call a by-election in Rochester and Strood. The Conservatives have lost to UKIP. Again. But the party can find solace in two sources of comfort.
It was just as UKIP's conference in Doncaster was concluding, and the Tory conference in Birmingham was beginning. Firstly, whilst they did lose, they weren't stuffed - and that gives local activists and observers at Westminster alike confidence they can win this seat back at the general election.
So Conservatives arrived in the West Midlands with smoke coming out of their ears and some choice words emerging from their lips. Secondly, on a day where they feared all the grim headlines would be coming their way, Labour have contrived to ensure they are taking their fair share too.
The prime minister wasn't immune from a blast of robust language, promising to "throw the kitchen sink" at the by-election contest to prevent Mr Reckless getting "his fat arse back onto the green benches" of the Commons. The Tories promised to throw the kitchen sink at this campaign. The prime minister campaigned in the constituency on five separate occasions and vowed to prevent Mark Reckless getting "his fat arse back onto the green benches" of the Commons.
And yet, despite five campaigning visits from Mr Cameron himself, Mr Reckless's posterior, large or otherwise, is destined to be reunited with the green leather of the Palace of Westminster. And yet, Mr Reckless's posterior, large or otherwise, is being reunited with that green leather of the Palace of Westminster.
So what happened to the kitchen sink? I was a regular visitor to the constituency throughout the contest and while the Tories did throw a fair bit of crockery at their campaign, it felt like the kitchen sink remained plumbed in Westminster. They seemed to clock fairly quickly that, despite their early bravado, they weren't going to win. And what happened to that kitchen sink? Well, it didn't work. And to remind the Tories of this, UKIP are planning to present them with a real kitchen sink.
Expect the game of "who's next?" to begin in earnest. Which other Conservatives might be tempted to leap over to UKIP?
LabourLabour
After the turbulence for Ed Miliband of the last few weeks, Labour crave the spotlight and the jitters transferring to the Conservatives for a bit. Labour's ambitions in this by election were nothing if not modest. Finish a credible third and then stand back and watch the Conservative jitters provoked by another UKIP win.
The party has been going out of its way to label this by-election as a two-horse race. That is the polite way of saying "don't expect anything from us, we've just turned up to make up the numbers". But a single photograph posted on Twitter by Shadow Attorney General Emily Thornberry rather did for that. The backlash was immediate, online and locally.
And yet, this is a constituency that straddles the River Medway: Strood on its north bank, Rochester on its south. Ask any elections nerd what the word 'Medway' means and the word 'bellwether' will likely quickly follow: the towns along this river tend to pick the winner at general elections. Chatting to some local butchers in Strood this morning, they were dripping with derision for what they saw as her snobbishness.
In other words, it is the kind of place Labour might expect to do better. Emily Thornberry's tweet leaves many within Labour seething. They are livid that a single image will allow their critics to portray Ed Miliband's party as out of touch with the electorate.
Until 2010, there was a Labour MP here. Ah, different constituency boundaries, the party says. True. And Labour don't need to win this seat to win the general election. But, nonetheless, expect at least some of the analysis after the result to focus on how Labour have done. And they are livid too that on the morning after the Conservatives have once again been beaten by UKIP, Labour is still generating headlines it could do without.
Liberal DemocratsLiberal Democrats
The Lib Dem candidate Geoff Juby has been the political equivalent here of the Philae Lander on Comet 67P. The Lib Dem candidate Geoff Juby has been the political equivalent here of the Philae Lander on Comet 67P: apparently billions of miles from support from HQ and reliant on only his own batteries.
Apparently billions of miles away from support from HQ and reliant only on his own batteries. Whilst the trains from London have carried Cabinet ministers and their shadows, and Ukippers by the carriage-load, the Liberal Democrats haven't bothered. And after a string of by-elections which brought dire results for the party, this was their worst ever. Less than one percent of the vote, and just a few hundred people turning out for them.
Councillor Juby has had nothing but his giant yellow rosette and a handful of plucky local activists to help him. But, there is a clear-headed strategy behind what looks like meek surrender to another ritual whacking at the hands of the electorate. Believe it or not, there is a clear-headed strategy behind what looks looks meek surrender to another ritual whacking at the hands of the electorate.
Rochester and Strood is no-hope territory for them, so precious general election funds are best saved to be spent in seats in the coming months where they have a chance of clinging on. Rochester and Strood is no-hope territory for Nick Clegg's party, so precious general election funds are best saved to be spent in seats in the coming months where they have a chance of clinging on.
The Green Party But 0.8% of the vote even in a no hoper of a seat is desperate - as bad as it has ever got for Nick Clegg's party.
The Greens are upbeat. The party is riding high - for them - in the polls. The Greens
A YouGov poll for the Sun earlier this week put them on 8%, the highest they have ever managed with that pollster. The Greens are upbeat. The party is riding high - for them - in the polls and they have once again seen off the Liberal Democrats in a by-election, getting five times as many votes as Westminster's third party.
A YouGov poll for the Sun earlier this week put the Greens on 8%, the highest they have ever managed with that pollster.
Activists don't miss a chance either to talk about their rising membership numbers, now standing at almost 27,000, a figure up 87% since January of this year.Activists don't miss a chance either to talk about their rising membership numbers, now standing at almost 27,000, a figure up 87% since January of this year.
All that said, they were also-rans in Rochester and Strood. When I asked their quick-witted candidate Clive Gregory how he approached campaigning in a seat that is not one of their targets he shot back: "Well, it is a target for me!" That was me told. All that said, they didn't quite get to the 8% mark in this by-election. When I asked their quick-witted candidate Clive Gregory how he approached campaigning in a seat that is not one of their targets he shot back: "Well, it is a target for me!" That was me told.
For them, it is all about getting the Green message out, talking up what they see as a "Green surge" and putting in a performance that helps with their campaign against the broadcasters for excluding them from their planned general election debates.For them, it is all about getting the Green message out, talking up what they see as a "Green surge" and putting in a performance that helps with their campaign against the broadcasters for excluding them from their planned general election debates.