The Guardian view on a deal with Iran: a chance to make history

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/nov/21/iran-deal-chance-to-make-history-nuclear

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The Iranian nuclear crisis has often resembled Groundhog Day, as relations with the west go through the cycle of defiance, talks, and defiance again. Yet as the US secretary of state John Kerry flies in to Vienna for what is hoped will be one last push for a deal before Monday night’s deadline, it is just possible that this could be the tipping-point. Barack Obama clearly wants a major diplomatic achievement as he enters his last two years in office. The chances are slim, but they are there. In the end, it may depend on whether the Iranian leadership recognises that this is a once-in-a-generation offer.

If President Obama had his way, history would almost certainly now be in the making. We would see something akin to the Nixon-Mao talks of 1972, the meeting that ended a 23-year freeze and re-set international relations. The US president has sent four letters to Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, further evidence of the “mutual respect” that he had already offered in 2009. The contrast could not be greater with the George W Bush years. Although Iran and the United States have had no diplomatic relations for 35 years, high-level bilateral contacts no longer make headlines. As the president pointed out in his last letter to Khamenei, with Isis as a common ennemy, Iran and the US are in a very different place compared even with a year ago. From Tehran, President Hassan Rouhani too has sent positive signals, not least because with global oil prices so low, sanctions relief is now crucial.

The question is whether this is enough to yield a result. The stakes could not be higher, and not only for Iran and the US. The way the question of Iranian nuclear capacity is – or is not – resolved will set a template for the way other countries with nuclear ambitions are treated. The director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, is complaining that Iran has not been cooperating with his investigation into past nuclear development. That is a violation of its obligations under the non-proliferation treaty, which sets the global rules on nuclear issues. Israel is not the only country watching this with forensic attention and existential angst. In a Middle East torn apart by Sunni-Shia religious strife and regional power confrontation, the threat of a regional nuclear arms race cannot be ignored. A multi-nuclear Middle East would truly be the stuff of 21st-century nightmares.

The focus of the Vienna talks is to persuade Iran to accept constraints on its nuclear programme that would make a swift “break out” to a nuclear bomb impossible. Full cooperation with IAEA investigations should be at the heart of this confidence building. But President Rouhani has already warned against pushing too hard. And Khamenei, seeing as much desperation as strength in Obama’s gestures, may instead want to push back. Nor does Khamenei believe the west has abandoned its desire for regime change in Tehran, even though such language has all but disappeared from US statements. To him, nuclear capacity still feels like regime life insurance. Nor do all the west’s negotiating partners agree. A Republican-dominated Congress may impede sanctions relief that is the quid pro quo for nuclear concessions. France would rather no deal than a bad one. The Saudis share their reservations.

As President Obama says: “In the end this is a political decision for the Iranians.” They need to demonstrate, by accepting the demand for transparency regarding their nuclear programme, that they are ready to grasp this historic opportunity. But there are obligations for the west too. It cannot accept a deal at any price: it needs to be sure that Iran does not have that swift access to a nuclear weapon. But it is possible that rather than, say, counting centrifuges, negotiators show a creativity over the monitoring regime that might get better results.

Even if a deal cannot be reached by Monday night, the talking must go on, if only because a breakdown would be much worse. The international community has come a long way to get to this point . Sanctions have deep flaws but they have clearly contributed to getting Iran to the table. In the end, Rouhani and Khamenei must decide whether regime stability and international normalisation are a better bet than holding on to the possibility of building a bomb – and the pariah status that comes with it.