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Vote Cameron, get Farage? Now the PM can’t rule it out Vote Cameron, get Farage? Now the PM can’t rule it out
(35 minutes later)
David Cameron has tried insulting, ignoring and imitating Ukip. Nothing has worked. Nigel Farage now has two MPs, both rebadged Tories, bringing the number of parties with representation in parliament to 13. David Cameron has tried insulting, ignoring and imitating Ukip. Nothing has worked. Nigel Farage has two MPs, both re-badged Tories, making it 12 parties (and three independents) with representation in the House of Commons.
That is quite crowded for a two-party system. Mark Reckless’s victory does not drastically alter the arithmetic of parliament any more than Douglas Carswell’s did. Government legislation is in no greater peril today than it was on Wednesday. But the presence of Ukip MPs in the Commons chamber does have a psychological impact on the Conservative party, not as an advertisement for the joys of defection (although that effect can’t be ruled out) but by provoking conversations about what might happen if the election produces another hung parliament.That is quite crowded for a two-party system. Mark Reckless’s victory does not drastically alter the arithmetic of parliament any more than Douglas Carswell’s did. Government legislation is in no greater peril today than it was on Wednesday. But the presence of Ukip MPs in the Commons chamber does have a psychological impact on the Conservative party, not as an advertisement for the joys of defection (although that effect can’t be ruled out) but by provoking conversations about what might happen if the election produces another hung parliament.
And that is by far the likeliest result. In more candid moments, senior Labour and Tory figures accept that their chances of governing with a majority are dwindling to nothing. Internal debate in both parties turns with increasing frequency to the relative merits of coalition or minority rule. But in public each side refuses to countenance talk of anything short of outright victory.And that is by far the likeliest result. In more candid moments, senior Labour and Tory figures accept that their chances of governing with a majority are dwindling to nothing. Internal debate in both parties turns with increasing frequency to the relative merits of coalition or minority rule. But in public each side refuses to countenance talk of anything short of outright victory.
It makes campaign sense not to concede defeat prematurely, but as the parameters of what would count as winning shrink, it will get ever harder for Ed Miliband and Cameron to deny that cross-party partnerships are on the agenda. It also insults the electorate. As polling day approaches it will become ever clearer that majority government isn’t a likely scenario. So it will be reasonable for voters to contemplate the various ruling combinations – which ones are feasible and which unthinkable.It makes campaign sense not to concede defeat prematurely, but as the parameters of what would count as winning shrink, it will get ever harder for Ed Miliband and Cameron to deny that cross-party partnerships are on the agenda. It also insults the electorate. As polling day approaches it will become ever clearer that majority government isn’t a likely scenario. So it will be reasonable for voters to contemplate the various ruling combinations – which ones are feasible and which unthinkable.
The question of whether Labour might be up for a deal with the Liberal Democrats next time has been floating around since the present coalition was formed. We know already that Cameron is capable of bargaining with Nick Clegg and that large sections of the Lib Dem party have found the experience traumatic. But that is basic coalition calculus compared with the complex algebra that the next parliament might generate. It is possible that neither of the two biggest parties will be able to govern, even with the help of a shrunken band of Lib Dems.The question of whether Labour might be up for a deal with the Liberal Democrats next time has been floating around since the present coalition was formed. We know already that Cameron is capable of bargaining with Nick Clegg and that large sections of the Lib Dem party have found the experience traumatic. But that is basic coalition calculus compared with the complex algebra that the next parliament might generate. It is possible that neither of the two biggest parties will be able to govern, even with the help of a shrunken band of Lib Dems.
Already Conservatives talk about tactical alliances with Ulster Unionists. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP’s new leader, has set out her conditions if prevailed upon to uphold a minority Labour government. After next May, the ability to pass legislation could depend on what the prime minister of the day can offer to ad hoc alliances of multiple parties.Already Conservatives talk about tactical alliances with Ulster Unionists. Nicola Sturgeon, the SNP’s new leader, has set out her conditions if prevailed upon to uphold a minority Labour government. After next May, the ability to pass legislation could depend on what the prime minister of the day can offer to ad hoc alliances of multiple parties.
Tory backbenchers are already talking openly about their readiness to consort with the Faragists. This morning, Peter Bone writes in the Guardian of his admiration for the insurgent party that yesterday humiliated his own leader. Reckless, in his victory speech in Rochester, raised the prospect of a Ukip bloc dictating terms to a minority administration in Westminster: “Whichever constituency, whatever your former party allegiance, think of what it would mean to have a bloc of Ukip MPs at Westminster large enough to hold the balance of power.” Tory backbenchers are already talking openly about their readiness to consort with the Faragists. This morning Peter Bone writes in the Guardian of his admiration for the insurgent party that yesterday humiliated his own leader. Reckless, in his victory speech in Rochester, raised the prospect of a Ukip bloc dictating terms to a minority administration in Westminster: “Whichever constituency, whatever your former party allegiance, think of what it would mean to have a bloc of Ukip MPs at Westminster large enough to hold the balance of power.”
A couple of years ago, that would have sounded delusional. Now it is rational bravado. It also makes Cameron’s dilemma much more acute. He used to dismiss out of hand any talk of deals with Ukip. That was easier when they were a distant rabble, protesting well out of earshot from No 10. But they are in parliament now. The prime minister is bound to be asked, in public and in private, whether he can imagine offering Farage sweeteners to sustain a Tory administration. When the issue arose after the Clacton byelection, Cameron appeared to hedge his bets. Now, it seems, nothing is ruled out. But the very concept of a Tory-Ukip pact is potentially toxic because it would expose a deeper culture war between liberal and nationalist strains of conservatism.A couple of years ago, that would have sounded delusional. Now it is rational bravado. It also makes Cameron’s dilemma much more acute. He used to dismiss out of hand any talk of deals with Ukip. That was easier when they were a distant rabble, protesting well out of earshot from No 10. But they are in parliament now. The prime minister is bound to be asked, in public and in private, whether he can imagine offering Farage sweeteners to sustain a Tory administration. When the issue arose after the Clacton byelection, Cameron appeared to hedge his bets. Now, it seems, nothing is ruled out. But the very concept of a Tory-Ukip pact is potentially toxic because it would expose a deeper culture war between liberal and nationalist strains of conservatism.
Of course Cameron would prefer not to share power with Ukip. What matters is the price at which he could bring himself to do it in an emergency. Does he distance himself from Farage out of rhetorical expediency or because he finds the man and his party fundamentally objectionable? Is there a line of anti-European, anti-immigrant rhetoric he won’t cross? The answer to those questions – and how a majority of Tory MPs might answer them – will tell undecided voters a lot about the character of the party and its leader. And the question will get harder to avoid. The Tories have been eager to argue that supporting Ukip could accidentally ease Miliband’s path to power, in the belief that such a prospect will send dissident Conservative voters scurrying home to Cameron’s camp. But the proposition can just as easily be reversed as a warning to anyone who thinks Ukip rhetoric is beyond the pale but is tempted to back the Tories. Vote Cameron, Get Farage? The prime minister used to rule it out. It is revealing that he no longer can. Of course Cameron would prefer not to share power with Ukip. What matters is the price at which he could bring himself to do it in an emergency. Does he distance himself from Farage out of rhetorical expediency or because he finds the man and his party fundamentally objectionable? Is there a line of anti-European, anti-immigrant rhetoric he won’t cross?
The answer to those questions – and how a majority of Tory MPs might answer them – will tell undecided voters a lot about the character of the party and its leader. And the question will get harder to avoid. The Tories have been eager to argue that supporting Ukip could accidentally ease Miliband’s path to power, in the belief that such a prospect will send dissident Conservative voters scurrying home to Cameron’s camp. But the proposition can just as easily be reversed as a warning to anyone who thinks Ukip rhetoric is beyond the pale but is tempted to back the Tories. Vote Cameron, Get Farage? The prime minister used to rule it out. It is revealing that he no longer can.