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U.S. and Allies Extend Iran Nuclear Talks by 7 Months U.S. and Allies Extend Iran Nuclear Talks by 7 Months
(about 5 hours later)
VIENNA — A yearlong effort to reach an enduring accord with Iran to dismantle large parts of its nuclear infrastructure fell short on Monday, forcing the United States and its allies to declare a seven-month extension, but with no clear indication of why they think they can ultimately overcome the political obstacles that have so far blocked a deal. VIENNA — A yearlong effort to reach an enduring accord with Iran to dismantle large parts of its nuclear infrastructure fell short on Monday, forcing the United States and its allies to declare a seven-month extension, but with no clear indication of why they think they can ultimately overcome the political obstacles that have so far blocked a deal.
Secretary of State John Kerry told reporters that a series of “new ideas surfaced” in the last several days of talks. He added that “we would be fools to walk away,” because a temporary agreement curbing Iran’s program would remain in place while negotiations continued. In return, Iran will receive another $5 billion in sanctions relief, enabling it to recover money frozen abroad — something that is likely to add to the threat of new sanctions from the newly-elected Republican Congress. The failure to agree even on the framework for a comprehensive deal, after extended high-level diplomacy over an issue that was arguably President Obama’s top foreign policy priority, had to be a disappointment for the administration.
Frustrations were visible on both sides. American officials said they remained hopeful a deal could still be worked out, But they worried that Iran's negotiating team, and Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, who came to office on the promise of obtaining a nuclear deal, did not seem to have the latitude to make the kind of political decisions necessary — and they could not see how that would change. Secretary of State John Kerry, trying to put the best face on it, told reporters that a series of “new ideas surfaced” in the last several days of talks. He added that “we would be fools to walk away,” because a temporary agreement curbing Iran’s program would remain in place while negotiations continued.
Mr. Rouhani, for his part, went on national television with a mixed message of reassurance and defiance, telling Iranians that eventually there would be a deal that ended sanction, but also casting the outcome in a victory narrative, saying “the centrifuges are spinning and will never stop.” Late Monday night Mr. Kerry’s negotiating partner, Mohammad Javad Zarif, was equally upbeat in a session with the news media, saying with a broad smile that he was optimistic that in the next few months a solution would be found. “We don’t need seven months,” he said.
But the fundamental problem remained: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has yet to signal that he is prepared to make the kind of far-reaching cuts in Iran’s enrichment capability that would be required to seal an accord. And it is unclear that his view will change before a March 1 deadline for reaching a political agreement, the first phase in the seven-month extension. But in what seemed to be a warning to those in Congress looking for Iran to end all its nuclear activities, he added, “If you are looking for a zero sum game in nuclear negotiations, you are doomed to failure.”
“Is it possible in the end we won’t reach an agreement?” Mr. Kerry said in a news conference hours before the deadline on Monday night. “Absolutely.” But he also indicated that the United States and Iran, along with Britain, France, Germany, China and Russia would only then turn to the question of whether a diplomatic path that President Obama has so long insisted upon can succeed. In agreeing to extend the existing interim agreement, Iran assured itself of a continuation of the sanctions relief that had brought it $700 million a month in money that had been frozen abroad — something that might well add to the threat of new sanctions from the newly elected Republican Congress.
Frustrations were visible on both sides, however. American officials said they remained hopeful that a deal could still be worked out. But they worried that Iran’s negotiating team, and Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, who came to office on the promise of obtaining a nuclear deal, did not seem to have the latitude to make the political decisions necessary — and they could not see how that would change.
Mr. Rouhani, for his part, went on national television with a mixed message of reassurance and defiance, telling Iranians that eventually there would be a deal that ended sanctions, but also casting the outcome in a victory narrative, saying “the centrifuges are spinning and will never stop.”
But a fundamental problem remained: Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has yet to signal that he is prepared to make the kind of far-reaching cuts in Iran’s enrichment ability that Washington has demanded to seal an accord. And it is unclear that his view will change before a March 1 deadline for reaching a political agreement, the first phase in the seven-month extension.
“Is it possible in the end we won’t reach an agreement?” Mr. Kerry said in a news conference hours before the deadline on Monday night. “Absolutely.”
“These talks are not going to get easier just because we extend them,” Mr. Kerry acknowledged. “They are tough, they’ve been tough, and they are going to stay tough.”“These talks are not going to get easier just because we extend them,” Mr. Kerry acknowledged. “They are tough, they’ve been tough, and they are going to stay tough.”
Officials said little about the new approaches they were now exploring with Iran, other than to indicate that “experts” — presumably at the Energy Department’s national laboratories — would be studying them to see if they, in combination with other steps, would result in at least a year’s warning if Iran raced for a weapon. That is the standard that the United States has set. Officials said little about the new approaches they were exploring with Iran, other than to indicate that “experts” — presumably at the Energy Department’s national laboratories — would be studying them to see if they, in combination with other steps, would result in at least a year’s warning if Iran raced for a weapon. That is the standard the United States has set.
That suggested the approach involves a combination of Iranian commitments to ship some of its nuclear stockpile to Russia, efforts to disconnect some of the country’s centrifuges in ways that would take considerable time to reverse, and limits on output that could be verified by international inspectors. “It’s a lot of moving parts,” said one European diplomat involved in the discussions, “and the question is what it adds up to.” The steps could involve a combination of Iranian commitments to ship some of its nuclear stockpile to Russia, efforts to disconnect some of the country’s centrifuges in ways that would take considerable time to reverse, and limits on output that could be verified by international inspectors. “It’s a lot of moving parts,” said one European diplomat involved in the discussions, “and the question is what it adds up to.”
Mr. Kerry went out of his way to compliment the lead Iranian negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who American officials have described as a creative diplomat who is forced to navigate Iran’s treacherous politics — and uncertain how far the country’s supreme leader will let him go. He and Iran’s president, Hassan Rouhani, came to power promising an end to the sanctions that have reduced Iran’s oil revenue by roughly 60 percent, crashed its currency and made overseas financial transactions almost impossible. Mr. Zarif said late Monday that the new ideas did not represent a proposal by either side but rather, “We have a compilation of ideas that each side has given the other.” He said he would not violate the secrecy of the negotiating room and, like Mr. Kerry, argued that leaks emerging from the discussions — and there have been many in the talks, involving six different nations — make it far harder to reach a deal.
But Mr. Zarif was also arguing, to the end here, that the sanctions must be lifted permanently and almost immediately, rather than being suspended, step by step, as President Obama has insisted. When Mr. Obama publicly rejected that approach in an interview broadcast Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” it seemed to drive home the fact that an accord was simply impossible. Mr. Kerry went out of his way to compliment the lead Iranian negotiator, Mr. Zarif, who American officials have described as a creative diplomat who is forced to navigate Iran’s treacherous politics and is uncertain how far the country’s supreme leader will let him go. He and Mr. Rouhani came to power promising an end to sanctions that have reduced Iran’s oil revenue by roughly 60 percent, crashed its currency and made overseas financial transactions almost impossible.
For both President Rouhani and President Obama, the next seven months may be difficult to manage. Opponents of concessions of any kind have been gaining strength in both countries. But Mr. Zarif was also arguing, to the end here, that the sanctions must be lifted permanently and almost immediately, rather than being removed step by step as President Obama has insisted. When Mr. Obama publicly rejected the immediate approach in an interview broadcast Sunday on ABC’s “This Week,” it seemed to drive home that an accord was impossible.
For both Mr. Rouhani and Mr. Obama, the next seven months may be difficult to manage. Opponents of concessions of any kind have been gaining strength in both countries.
Mr. Rouhani has been facing significant opposition to his agenda, and Mr. Zarif was clearly, in the words of one American official, “on a very tight leash” in the last days of the negotiation. He indicated, in private, that he had not been able to win much support for any formulation that would have required Iran to dismantle centrifuges or take other visible steps toward meeting American demands.Mr. Rouhani has been facing significant opposition to his agenda, and Mr. Zarif was clearly, in the words of one American official, “on a very tight leash” in the last days of the negotiation. He indicated, in private, that he had not been able to win much support for any formulation that would have required Iran to dismantle centrifuges or take other visible steps toward meeting American demands.
Mr. Obama, for his part, will no longer be able to rely on Democratic leaders in the Senate to bottle up legislation that would require new sanctions. “I don’t think Congress is going to sit still,” said Mark Dubowitz, the executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who has been highly critical of the effort. “There is a fear the administration is being played for time, and there will be a desire to express that in some form of sanctions resolution.” Mr. Obama, for his part, will no longer be able to rely on Democratic leaders in the Senate to bottle up legislation that would require new sanctions. “I don’t think Congress is going to sit still,” said Mark Dubowitz, the executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, who has been highly critical of the effort. “There is a fear the administration is being played for time, and there will be a desire to express that in some form of a sanctions bill.”
Mr. Kerry declined to say if President Obama would veto such an effort, saying he was already talking to his former colleagues in Congress. But his negotiating team is already arguing for time for the negotiations to play out, arguing that Iran has far less capability now than it did a year ago, before the interim accord, called the “Joint Plan of Action,” required it to blend down its most potent nuclear fuel — closest to bomb grade -- and to halt the intallation of new centrifuges. Mr. Kerry declined to indicate if President Obama would veto such an effort, saying he was talking to his former colleagues in Congress. But his negotiating team is already arguing for time for the negotiations to play out. It contends that Iran has far less ability now than it did a year ago, before the interim accord, called the “Joint Plan of Action,” required it to blend down its most potent nuclear fuel — closest to bomb grade — and to halt the installation of new centrifuges.
Opponents look at the same set of facts and argue that a year later , Iran has as much capability as ever to stage a “breakout,” the production of one bomb’s worth of fuel. Opponents looking at the same set of facts argued that a year later Iran has as much ability as ever to stage a “breakout,” the production of one bomb’s worth of fuel.
For many of those opponents — in Iran, in Congress, in Israel and in the Arab states — the result was a relief. The extension had not even been announced when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel celebrated it as the least-bad outcome.For many of those opponents — in Iran, in Congress, in Israel and in the Arab states — the result was a relief. The extension had not even been announced when Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel celebrated it as the least-bad outcome.
“No deal is better than a bad deal,” he said to the BBC, hours after speaking with Mr. Kerry by phone. “The right deal that is needed is to dismantle Iran’s capacity to make atomic bombs and only then dismantle the sanctions. Since that’s not in the offing, this result is better, a lot better.”“No deal is better than a bad deal,” he said to the BBC, hours after speaking with Mr. Kerry by phone. “The right deal that is needed is to dismantle Iran’s capacity to make atomic bombs and only then dismantle the sanctions. Since that’s not in the offing, this result is better, a lot better.”
In Iran, the calculus is more complex. With oil prices dropping, the economic damage done by the sanctions is being amplified. But those supporting President Rouhani insisted that the extension did not mean failure, and some argued that extra time works in Iran’s favor. In Iran, the calculus is more complex. With oil prices dropping, the economic damage done by the sanctions is being amplified. But those supporting Mr. Rouhani insisted that the extension did not mean failure, and some argued that extra time worked in Iran’s favor.
Saeed Laylaz, an economist connected to the government, argued that Mr. Rouhani was managing the country more efficiently than his fiery predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.Saeed Laylaz, an economist connected to the government, argued that Mr. Rouhani was managing the country more efficiently than his fiery predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
“With prudence and wisdom we can run the country, and at least we are now assured of $700 million income each month, which we can inject into the economy,” Mr. Laylaz said. That is the amount Iran will receive in the additional sanctions relief. “With prudence and wisdom we can run the country, and at least we are now assured of $700 million income each month, which we can inject into the economy,” Mr. Laylaz said. That is the amount Iran will receive in additional sanctions relief.
Those who have been critical of the government’s outreach to what they see as its archenemy, the United States, also welcomed the outcome, saying it showed that the negotiators had been under the control of the supreme leader, and that Iran had lost nothing — because its nuclear infrastructure remained intact.Those who have been critical of the government’s outreach to what they see as its archenemy, the United States, also welcomed the outcome, saying it showed that the negotiators had been under the control of the supreme leader, and that Iran had lost nothing — because its nuclear infrastructure remained intact.
The negotiations are to resume next month. The location for the December talks has yet to be announced, but since the long dance to today’s failed deadline began they have been held in Muscat, Oman; Geneva and here in Vienna. The negotiations are to resume next month. The location for the talks has yet to be announced, but in the long dance to the failed deadline they have been held in Muscat, Oman; Geneva; and here in Vienna.