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The seven best metaphors for the economy | The seven best metaphors for the economy |
(about 17 hours later) | |
When George Osborne stands up to deliver his Autumn Statement next week, lots of people will be listening out for the numbers. | When George Osborne stands up to deliver his Autumn Statement next week, lots of people will be listening out for the numbers. |
But spare a moment to check for one other thing. | But spare a moment to check for one other thing. |
Will he be promising a blossoming or a breakdown? Or will there be more of David Cameron's flashing lights? | |
It may sound like the usual car crash of meaningless business cliches. | It may sound like the usual car crash of meaningless business cliches. |
But choosing the right economic metaphor could be more important than you think. | But choosing the right economic metaphor could be more important than you think. |
Breakdown | Breakdown |
With his "red warning lights are once again flashing on the dashboard of the global economy" David Cameron reformulated an old classic: the economy as a broken down vehicle. | With his "red warning lights are once again flashing on the dashboard of the global economy" David Cameron reformulated an old classic: the economy as a broken down vehicle. |
This one is loved by all politicians since it implies that they'll have a quick tinker under the bonnet and get you back on the road and home in time for tea and crumpets. | This one is loved by all politicians since it implies that they'll have a quick tinker under the bonnet and get you back on the road and home in time for tea and crumpets. |
"Metaphors are not just a pasted-on ornament," says Deirdre McCloskey, author of "The Rhetoric of Economics". | "Metaphors are not just a pasted-on ornament," says Deirdre McCloskey, author of "The Rhetoric of Economics". |
"They're terribly consequential," she points out. | "They're terribly consequential," she points out. |
So what does this tell us about the way David Cameron sees the economy? | So what does this tell us about the way David Cameron sees the economy? |
"The way most politicians do," she says. | "The way most politicians do," she says. |
"All men of power think they know everything. They think the natural order of things should be manipulated." | "All men of power think they know everything. They think the natural order of things should be manipulated." |
"There are flashing lights. And he's the man to fix it," she adds. | "There are flashing lights. And he's the man to fix it," she adds. |
A force of nature | A force of nature |
The financial crisis triggered a veritable tsunami of apocalyptic metaphors, many of them meteorological in nature. | The financial crisis triggered a veritable tsunami of apocalyptic metaphors, many of them meteorological in nature. |
These tend to be more useful for a chancellor who wants to highlight the remote causes of the country's economic plight, and back in 2011 George Osborne did indeed promise we would "ride out the storm". | These tend to be more useful for a chancellor who wants to highlight the remote causes of the country's economic plight, and back in 2011 George Osborne did indeed promise we would "ride out the storm". |
But there's a limit to what you can do in the face of a perfect storm. Except perhaps batten down the hatches. | But there's a limit to what you can do in the face of a perfect storm. Except perhaps batten down the hatches. |
So this image doesn't satisfy left wing commentators like Anat Shenker-Osorio author of the book "Don't Buy It: The Trouble with Talking Nonsense About the Economy". | So this image doesn't satisfy left wing commentators like Anat Shenker-Osorio author of the book "Don't Buy It: The Trouble with Talking Nonsense About the Economy". |
She thinks it's used to justify government inaction. | She thinks it's used to justify government inaction. |
"The weather is understood as outside of our control, capricious," says Schenker-Osorio, | "The weather is understood as outside of our control, capricious," says Schenker-Osorio, |
"Of course in winter it's cold. We can all whine and complain but that's how it is." | "Of course in winter it's cold. We can all whine and complain but that's how it is." |
For the same reason the right also favours tidal analogies. | For the same reason the right also favours tidal analogies. |
Like King Canute there is little we can do, although as metaphor-loving investor Warren Buffett pointed out, a receding one can help clarify who has been skinny-dipping. | Like King Canute there is little we can do, although as metaphor-loving investor Warren Buffett pointed out, a receding one can help clarify who has been skinny-dipping. |
Patient on a trolley | Patient on a trolley |
A medical analogy is most favoured by journalists including, by his own admission, our very own Robert Peston. | A medical analogy is most favoured by journalists including, by his own admission, our very own Robert Peston. |
He finds himself drawn to "anaemic recovery" and "economy on steroids" as a way to help us all get to grips with what is going on. | He finds himself drawn to "anaemic recovery" and "economy on steroids" as a way to help us all get to grips with what is going on. |
He is in good company: Ben Bernanke when he was chairman of the US central bank said credit was "the lifeblood of the economy". | He is in good company: Ben Bernanke when he was chairman of the US central bank said credit was "the lifeblood of the economy". |
Plus for hacks the hospital scenario offers plenty of scope for doses of bitter medicine, flat-lining heart monitors, and melodramatic life and death scenarios. | Plus for hacks the hospital scenario offers plenty of scope for doses of bitter medicine, flat-lining heart monitors, and melodramatic life and death scenarios. |
Ideologically it allows them to sit on a metaphorical fence. The right is happy to view the patient as largely self-healing. The left is keener for the doctor to always be on call, just in case intervention is required. | Ideologically it allows them to sit on a metaphorical fence. The right is happy to view the patient as largely self-healing. The left is keener for the doctor to always be on call, just in case intervention is required. |
Unfortunately the image is now so over-used it is practically dead on arrival. | Unfortunately the image is now so over-used it is practically dead on arrival. |
Going over the top | Going over the top |
In George Osborne's Mansion House speech this summer he dropped in a mention of Winston Churchill (as he's been known to do before). | In George Osborne's Mansion House speech this summer he dropped in a mention of Winston Churchill (as he's been known to do before). |
The phrases "we will not waver" and "we must win this battle" were marshalled. | The phrases "we will not waver" and "we must win this battle" were marshalled. |
But the real champion of the battlefield metaphor is Warren Buffett, reputed to be the western world's most successful long term investor. | But the real champion of the battlefield metaphor is Warren Buffett, reputed to be the western world's most successful long term investor. |
He viewed the financial crisis as "an economic Pearl Harbor" and blamed in part the "financial weapons of mass destruction", such as derivatives. | He viewed the financial crisis as "an economic Pearl Harbor" and blamed in part the "financial weapons of mass destruction", such as derivatives. |
It may have helped illustrate the scale of the challenge, but Professor McCloskey thinks war vocabulary is dangerous. | It may have helped illustrate the scale of the challenge, but Professor McCloskey thinks war vocabulary is dangerous. |
If people think they're fighting a battle, they become preoccupied with competing and relative strength and they don't see the ways in which we benefit each other. | If people think they're fighting a battle, they become preoccupied with competing and relative strength and they don't see the ways in which we benefit each other. |
At the end of the nineteenth century the British press talked of a "German invasion" when it was products like steel and toys crossing the channel. | At the end of the nineteenth century the British press talked of a "German invasion" when it was products like steel and toys crossing the channel. |
"All the aggressive talk of things that were like war, contributed to making actual war," she says. | "All the aggressive talk of things that were like war, contributed to making actual war," she says. |
Give them a medal | Give them a medal |
Sporting metaphors are favoured at the Bank of England, buoyed up perhaps by the success of London 2012. | Sporting metaphors are favoured at the Bank of England, buoyed up perhaps by the success of London 2012. |
The Bank's chief economist Andrew Haldane likes to spin a cricketing metaphor when considering whether the bank should "play off the front foot" or take things more defensively over interest rates. | The Bank's chief economist Andrew Haldane likes to spin a cricketing metaphor when considering whether the bank should "play off the front foot" or take things more defensively over interest rates. |
Possibly this baffles his Canadian boss Mark Carney who relies instead on a "trusty canoe" to "navigate the most rapid and treacherous waters" suggesting a more adrenaline fuelled approach to interest rate setting. | Possibly this baffles his Canadian boss Mark Carney who relies instead on a "trusty canoe" to "navigate the most rapid and treacherous waters" suggesting a more adrenaline fuelled approach to interest rate setting. |
Since then though he has predicted more of a long hard slog if we're to "win the economic marathon". | Since then though he has predicted more of a long hard slog if we're to "win the economic marathon". |
Given that we try to read meaning into every utterance central bankers make, their choice of metaphor must be worth scrutinising. | Given that we try to read meaning into every utterance central bankers make, their choice of metaphor must be worth scrutinising. |
Watch out for standard issue yellow jerseys for BoE staff if the recovery stays on track. | Watch out for standard issue yellow jerseys for BoE staff if the recovery stays on track. |
The housekeeper's purse | The housekeeper's purse |
This one was Mrs Thatcher's meat and drink. | This one was Mrs Thatcher's meat and drink. |
And it has the advantage that everyone can relate to a bank overdraft (see also George Osborne's "maxing out on the nation's credit card"). | And it has the advantage that everyone can relate to a bank overdraft (see also George Osborne's "maxing out on the nation's credit card"). |
This metaphor argues that you can't spend more than you earn. | This metaphor argues that you can't spend more than you earn. |
Except that in these days of multiple credit cards and four-times-salary mortgages that's a lot less true than it used to be. | Except that in these days of multiple credit cards and four-times-salary mortgages that's a lot less true than it used to be. |
Economists on the left object no end to the idea that a country running a deficit is akin to a household running one. | Economists on the left object no end to the idea that a country running a deficit is akin to a household running one. |
After all, the country can keep borrowing for significantly longer before the bailiffs show up. | After all, the country can keep borrowing for significantly longer before the bailiffs show up. |
Ian Birrell, newspaper columnist and former speechwriter for David Cameron says: "The point about fixing the roof when the sun was shining may on one level have been a slightly false analogy." | Ian Birrell, newspaper columnist and former speechwriter for David Cameron says: "The point about fixing the roof when the sun was shining may on one level have been a slightly false analogy." |
"But on the other it did drive home a political message that Labour spent too much money and had to face the consequences," he adds. | "But on the other it did drive home a political message that Labour spent too much money and had to face the consequences," he adds. |
The pie's the limit | The pie's the limit |
Another classic, but this time not at all suited to the palates of the right. | Another classic, but this time not at all suited to the palates of the right. |
Keith Hennessey, director of the National Economic Council under President George W Bush particularly dislikes this one. | Keith Hennessey, director of the National Economic Council under President George W Bush particularly dislikes this one. |
"The pie metaphor for the economy is misleading and damaging," he writes in his blog. | "The pie metaphor for the economy is misleading and damaging," he writes in his blog. |
"A pie has a predefined size …..some argue we can and should simply re-slice the new, bigger pie to produce more equitable pieces. | "A pie has a predefined size …..some argue we can and should simply re-slice the new, bigger pie to produce more equitable pieces. |
"Those who do usually ignore that their actions would make the economy smaller," he adds. | "Those who do usually ignore that their actions would make the economy smaller," he adds. |
Similarly you can't have your cake and eat it. | Similarly you can't have your cake and eat it. |
Nevertheless it might still be worth bearing in mind if you're a chancellor facing tough spending round negotiations. | Nevertheless it might still be worth bearing in mind if you're a chancellor facing tough spending round negotiations. |
See also: belt tightening. | See also: belt tightening. |
All rosy in the garden | All rosy in the garden |
The first ever economic metaphor was an ecosystem-based analogy. | The first ever economic metaphor was an ecosystem-based analogy. |
Bernard Mandeville's 1705 "Fable of the Bees" contains more than a hint of "greed is good". | Bernard Mandeville's 1705 "Fable of the Bees" contains more than a hint of "greed is good". |
Interestingly Mandeville was praised both by the father of modern right wing economic theory, Friedrich von Hayek, and also John Maynard Keynes. | Interestingly Mandeville was praised both by the father of modern right wing economic theory, Friedrich von Hayek, and also John Maynard Keynes. |
But these days gardens and jungles are seen as a bit of a cop out. | But these days gardens and jungles are seen as a bit of a cop out. |
"Metaphors from nature are always suspicious because the speaker is, in effect, saying 'not my fault', 'nothing I could have done'", says Phil Collins, a former speechwriter to Tony Blair and The Times' chief leader writer. | |
"The task of economic policy is to ensure that [the economy] is not a jungle at all." | "The task of economic policy is to ensure that [the economy] is not a jungle at all." |
And perhaps it is safer to avoid metaphors altogether. | And perhaps it is safer to avoid metaphors altogether. |
After all, Norman Lamont spotted a horticultural resurgence before others did in 1991 and was pitch-forked by his critics. | After all, Norman Lamont spotted a horticultural resurgence before others did in 1991 and was pitch-forked by his critics. |
Would that have happened if he had merely seen "some signs the recession may be coming to an end" and left the "green shoots" well alone? | Would that have happened if he had merely seen "some signs the recession may be coming to an end" and left the "green shoots" well alone? |
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