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In Japan, opposition is caught off-guard after Shinzo Abe calls snap election In Japan, opposition is caught off-guard after Shinzo Abe calls snap election
(about 20 hours later)
FUNABASHI, Japan — Only a few years ago, he was the leader of the world’s third-largest economy. This week, he’s been standing on street corners and outside train stations, often in the rain, exhorting mostly uninterested passersby to vote for him. FUNABASHI, Japan — Only a few years ago, he was the leader of the world’s third-largest economy. This past week, he was standing on street corners and outside train stations, often in the rain, exhorting mostly uninterested passersby to vote for him.
“Good morning, good morning,” Yoshihiko Noda, the former prime minister and once leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, said outside a subway station here in Funabashi, in the heart of his constituency east of Tokyo, at 6:30 one day last week. “Good morning, good morning,” Yoshihiko Noda, the former prime minister and once-leader of the Democratic Party of Japan, said outside a subway station here in Funabashi, in the heart of his constituency just east of Tokyo, at 6:30 a.m. one day last week.
“I’m counting on you. Please help me,” he said, bowing as the steady stream of commuters largely ignored his greetings and the fliers he held out to them. Occasionally someone would stop to shake his hand while rushing to catch a train, but the only people who were really paying attention were the three heavies with earpieces standing guard. “I’m counting on you. Please help me,” he said, bowing as the steady stream of commuters largely ignored his greetings and the fliers he held out to them. Occasionally someone would stop to shake his hand while rushing to catch a train, but the only people who were really paying attention were the three heavies wearing earpieces and standing guard.
It’s quite a come-down for Noda, who is seeking to retain his seat in next month’s snap parliamentary election, with campaigning officially beginning Tuesday. It’s quite a descent for Noda, who is seeking to retain his seat in this month’s snap parliamentary election, with campaigning officially beginning Tuesday.
A prominent figure in the opposition, Noda should be enjoying this moment and this election campaign, so full of problems for the incumbent prime minister, Shinzo Abe, and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party. But he and his allies are struggling to gain any traction at all. A prominent figure in the opposition, Noda should be enjoying this moment and this election campaign, so full of problems for the incumbent prime minister, Shinzo Abe, and his ruling Liberal Democratic Party. But Noda and his allies are struggling to gain any traction at all.
This election is no American-style nail-biter. There is no question that Abe and the LDP will return with a majority next month. The only question is how reduced that majority will be.This election is no American-style nail-biter. There is no question that Abe and the LDP will return with a majority next month. The only question is how reduced that majority will be.
Abe suddenly dissolved the lower house of parliament Nov. 18 and called the election after the economy slipped back into recession for the third time in four years. He is seeking a new mandate to continue with his “Abenomics” strategy for reviving the economy, and his party has adopted a distinctly flat election slogan: “This road is the only road.” Abe suddenly dissolved the lower house of parliament Nov. 18 and called the election after the economy slipped back into recession for the third time in four years. He is seeking a new mandate to continue with his “Abenomics” strategy for reviving the economy, and his party has adopted a distinctly flat election slogan: “This road is the only road.”
But for all of Abe’s challenges, a strong opposition is not one of them.But for all of Abe’s challenges, a strong opposition is not one of them.
“The DPJ doesn’t have much support,” said Mari Miura, a political scientist at Sophia University in Tokyo. “They are failing to provide a clear policy alternative to the LDP, perhaps because they learned from their mistakes of failing to live up to their promises last time.”“The DPJ doesn’t have much support,” said Mari Miura, a political scientist at Sophia University in Tokyo. “They are failing to provide a clear policy alternative to the LDP, perhaps because they learned from their mistakes of failing to live up to their promises last time.”
The centrist DPJ, Japan’s largest opposition party, came into existence in 1998 through the merger of several opposition parties and won a landslide victory in 2009, installing Yukio Hatoyama as prime minister. The centrist DPJ, Japan’s largest opposition party, came into existence in 1998, when several opposition parties merged, and it won a landslide victory in 2009, installing Yukio Hatoyama as prime minister.
But in its three years in power, it went through three prime ministers — Hatoyama was followed by Naoto Kan, then Noda — and was widely viewed as a flop. It botched a diplomatic standoff with Beijing and struggled with the overwhelming job of recovery after the 2011 tsunami and nuclear meltdowns. But in its three years in power, it went through three prime ministers — Hatoyama was followed by Naoto Kan, then Noda — and was widely viewed as a flop. It botched a diplomatic standoff with Beijing and struggled with the overwhelming job of recovery after the 2011 tsunami and nuclear-reactor meltdowns.
After capturing 230 of the 480 seats in the lower house in 2009,the DPJ won just 57 seats in the 2012 election, one-fifth of the LDP’s 294-seat landslide. The label “charismatic” is seldom applied to its current leader, Banri Kaieda. (In fact, some insiders view this election as a chance to get rid of him as head of the party.) After capturing 308 of the 480 seats in the lower house in 2009, the DPJ won just 57 seats in the 2012 election, one-fifth of the LDP’s 294-seat landslide. The label “charismatic” is seldom applied to its current leader, Banri Kaieda. (In fact, some insiders view this election as a chance to get rid of him as head of the party.)
Most analysts expect the LDP to lose 20 or even 30 seats next month, but the DPJ is ill-prepared to scoop them up. It doesn’t even have enough candidates: It has lined up only 170 candidates for next month’s poll, about 90 fewer than it fielded in the last election, the Nikkei newspaper reported. Most analysts expect the LDP to lose 20 or even 30 seats next month, but the DPJ is unprepared to scoop them up. It does not even have enough candidates: It has lined up only 170 candidates for next month’s poll, about 90 fewer than it fielded in the last election, the Nikkei newspaper reported.
“Despite growing doubts about the effectiveness of Abe’s economic policies, voters see no viable alternative to Abe or his policies,” said Tobias Harris, a Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence. “Abe remains the least-bad option.”“Despite growing doubts about the effectiveness of Abe’s economic policies, voters see no viable alternative to Abe or his policies,” said Tobias Harris, a Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence. “Abe remains the least-bad option.”
Recent polls have found an unenthusiastic electorate, with political analysts predicting that turnout will be even worse than the record low of 59 percent in 2012. Recent polls have found an unenthusiastic electorate, with political analysts predicting that turnout will be even worse than the record low of 59 percent in 2012.
A poll by the left-leaning Asahi newspaper found that 37 percent of respondents said they would vote for the LDP, while only 11 percent said they would support the DPJ. The right-leaning Yomiuri found a similar result, although at slightly higher levels: 41 percent for the LDP and 14 percent for the DPJ. A poll by the left-leaning Asahi newspaper found that 37 percent of respondents said they would vote for the LDP, while only 11 percent said they would support the DPJ. The right-leaning Yomiuri newspaper found a similar result, although at slightly higher levels of support: 41 percent for the LDP and 14 percent for the DPJ.
“As bad as it looks for the DPJ, mathematically it would be hard for them to do worse than they did last time,” Harris said. “There’s going to be a slight shift in the pendulum, but not a full swing.”“As bad as it looks for the DPJ, mathematically it would be hard for them to do worse than they did last time,” Harris said. “There’s going to be a slight shift in the pendulum, but not a full swing.”
The other opposition parties, including the Japan Innovation Party and the Communist Party, as well the LDP’s junior partner, the Komeito, are all scoring in the single digits. The other opposition parties, including the Japan Innovation Party and the Communist Party, as well the LDP’s junior partner, the Komeito, are scoring in the single digits.
The DPJ’s efforts are now focused on trying to avoid vote-splitting among the opposition parties.The DPJ’s efforts are now focused on trying to avoid vote-splitting among the opposition parties.
Even Yukio Edano, secretary general of the DPJ, conceded that it’s still too early to be talking about a comeback.Even Yukio Edano, secretary general of the DPJ, conceded that it’s still too early to be talking about a comeback.
“I don’t believe Japan is at the stage yet where people are going to say, ‘Let’s give all the power back to the DPJ.’ I don’t think we’re quite there yet,” Edano told foreign reporters recently. “But people are going to realize that we need more choices.”“I don’t believe Japan is at the stage yet where people are going to say, ‘Let’s give all the power back to the DPJ.’ I don’t think we’re quite there yet,” Edano told foreign reporters recently. “But people are going to realize that we need more choices.”
In private conversations, DPJ insiders concede that there’s not much that they would do differently from the LDP, and they talk about returning as a political force in two, maybe three, electoral cycles’ time. In private conversations, DPJ insiders concede that there is not much that they would do differently from the LDP, and they talk about returning as a political force in two, maybe three, electoral cycles.
Still, the DPJ has an optimistic new slogan — “Now is the Time to Change the Flow” — and last week announced its policy platform.Still, the DPJ has an optimistic new slogan — “Now is the Time to Change the Flow” — and last week announced its policy platform.
Abenomics had made life harder for “ordinary citizens,” it said, so that it would work to lessen economic inequality and create a “wealthy middle class.” It reiterated its goal to see Japan living without nuclear power by the 2030s, and said it would overturn Abe’s decision to lessen constraints on Japan’s military. Abenomics had made life harder for “ordinary citizens,” it said, so the DPJ would work to lessen economic inequality and create a “wealthy middle class.” It reiterated its goal to see Japan living without nuclear power by the 2030s and said it would overturn Abe’s decision to lessen constraints on Japan’s military.
However, the DPJ said it would abide by the agreement with the United States under which the Marine Corps air station on Okinawa is due to be relocated to a less populated part of the island. But the DPJ said it would abide by the agreement with the United States under which the Marine Corps air station on Okinawa is due to be relocated to a less-populated part of the island.
For his part, Noda is doing his level best to remain upbeat.For his part, Noda is doing his level best to remain upbeat.
“It’s just started so I can’t tell if things are optimistic or pessimistic at this point,” he said outside the station as the morning rush-hour ended. But his real focus is a few years down the track. “It’s just started, so I can’t tell if things are optimistic or pessimistic at this point,” he said outside the station as the morning rush-hour ended. But his real focus is a few years down the track.
“I’d like to gain a right to challenge to try and take back the administration in the next general election,” he said. That election will be due by the end of 2018.“I’d like to gain a right to challenge to try and take back the administration in the next general election,” he said. That election will be due by the end of 2018.