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Autumn Statement: Welsh tax predicted by watchdog Autumn Statement: Welsh control of nearly £3bn taxes
(35 minutes later)
The amount of money Wales could raise if taxes were devolved will be published for the first time as part of the chancellor's Autumn Statement. Wales could control nearly £3bn in taxes by 2020 under the powers set to be devolved, the first ever official predictions have said.
The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will estimate the likely proceeds from income tax, stamp duty land tax, landfill tax and the aggregates levy. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) has estimated the likely proceeds from income tax, stamp duty land tax, landfill tax and the aggregates levy.
The tax predictions will give a guide to how well the Welsh economy is doing. It came as Chancellor George Osborne revealed his tax and spending plans.
News of up to £78m extra funding for Wales and support for a tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay has already been announced. The Welsh government will get an additional £123m to spend next year as a result of the Autumn Statement.
The coalition UK government has been releasing details of its tax and spending plans in the Autumn Statement day-by-day this week in order to maximise its impact. Around £71m will come due to additional money spent on the NHS in England, with most of the rest coming from the devolution of business rates.
Chancellor George Osborne was delivering the statement to the House of Commons on Wednesday. Welsh Finance Minister Jane Hutt said the extra money "goes a small way towards redressing the damage that the deep cuts in public service provision has done to people in Wales and across the UK".
He confirmed that he had agreed the devolution of business rates to Wales in negotiations with the Welsh government. She claimed the Welsh government's budget was still 9% less in real terms now than it was in 2010-11,
Business hopes "Whilst there is positive news in the Autumn Statement, much work is still to be done to deliver a fair and sustainable funding settlement for Wales," she added.
Tuesday's National Infrastructure Plan included for the first time the proposed tidal lagoon in Swansea but a number of hurdles have to be overcome before that receives the go-ahead. News of the extra funding from health budgets for Wales and UK government support for a £1bn power-generating tidal lagoon in Swansea Bay had already been announced.
Meanwhile Cardiff steel manufacturer Celsa wants Chancellor George Osborne to bring forward financial aid for firms with big energy bills he has pledged for 2016. Tax take
The tax predictions, and what they say about the strength or otherwise of the Welsh economy, are expected to be pored over by politicians as Wales enters the next phase of devolution. The first-ever official Welsh tax predictions, and what they say about the strength or otherwise of the Welsh economy, will be pored over by politicians as Wales enters the next phase of devolution.
They will cover the taxes which are set to be devolved once the Wales Bill going through parliament becomes law. They cover the taxes which are set to be devolved once the Wales Bill going through Parliament becomes law, including the ability to vary income tax rates by up to 10p in the pound.
The figures will indicate how much the Welsh government could raise to cover its spending and how much it would need from the UK Treasury for the rest. It estimates Wales could have had control over £2.2bn of taxes in the current financial year, rising to £2.8bn in 2019/20.
The figures show that if Welsh ministers had control of 10p in the pound of income tax, they would have controlled £1.9bn of income tax in this financial year, rising to £2.5bn by 2019-20.
However, the devolution of income tax powers will depend on the result of a referendum.
The rest of the Welsh government's budget of around £15bn would need to be covered by the UK Treasury.