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Swedish nightmare looms for Labour Swedish nightmare looms for Labour
(35 minutes later)
As you struggle through acres of analysis of George Osborne’s autumn statement, trying to decide whether or not to believe his figures (or whether he believes them himself), spare a thought for the ominous message for Ed Miliband tucked away in Thursday’s foreign pages. It comes from Sweden.As you struggle through acres of analysis of George Osborne’s autumn statement, trying to decide whether or not to believe his figures (or whether he believes them himself), spare a thought for the ominous message for Ed Miliband tucked away in Thursday’s foreign pages. It comes from Sweden.
Just suppose voters reject the chancellor’s highly political and surprisingly upbeat marking of his own homework. Let’s imagine they embrace instead the Office of Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) admirable sceptical warning against public spending slipping to 1930s levels as Osborne tries to do next time what he promised to do last time: eliminate the annual deficit and reduce accumulated debt. Just suppose voters reject the chancellor’s highly political and surprisingly upbeat marking of his own homework. Let’s imagine they embrace instead the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) admirably sceptical warning against public spending slipping to 1930s levels as Osborne tries to do next time what he promised to do last time: eliminate the annual deficit and reduce accumulated debt.
In a messy election, the Osborne-Cameron gamble fails against expectation that voters will opt for at least the appearance of fiscal austerity. Ukip, which promises all things to all voters before the pubs open and changes its mind again before they shut, surges on and hurts the Tories most. A minority Labour government limps into power, possibly in an informal understanding – no more coalitions, please, we’re British – with what remains of the Lib Dems and (who knows?) a patchwork of Celtic nationalists and even Greens.In a messy election, the Osborne-Cameron gamble fails against expectation that voters will opt for at least the appearance of fiscal austerity. Ukip, which promises all things to all voters before the pubs open and changes its mind again before they shut, surges on and hurts the Tories most. A minority Labour government limps into power, possibly in an informal understanding – no more coalitions, please, we’re British – with what remains of the Lib Dems and (who knows?) a patchwork of Celtic nationalists and even Greens.
Fast forward to this week’s drama in Stockholm, which has ended in the minority Social Democratic government calling a snap election (by Swedish standards) in March after failing to carry its first budget two months into office. As David Crouch explains, the prime minister, Stefan Löfven, chose to stick to his coalition partners, the Greens, rather than cut them adrift and do a budget deal with the recently ejected centre-right alliance of small middling parties.Fast forward to this week’s drama in Stockholm, which has ended in the minority Social Democratic government calling a snap election (by Swedish standards) in March after failing to carry its first budget two months into office. As David Crouch explains, the prime minister, Stefan Löfven, chose to stick to his coalition partners, the Greens, rather than cut them adrift and do a budget deal with the recently ejected centre-right alliance of small middling parties.
Remember, Sweden is different from Britain in a crucial way. Social Democratic party dominance has been the country’s default regime – not the Tories – for most of the past century. And there hasn’t been a snap election since 1958.Remember, Sweden is different from Britain in a crucial way. Social Democratic party dominance has been the country’s default regime – not the Tories – for most of the past century. And there hasn’t been a snap election since 1958.
What’s changed? Right first time. An anti-immigration party with a charismatic leader, called Jimmie Åkesson (just 35, he’s just been diagnosed with chronic fatigue syndrome), has risen suddenly in the shape of the Sweden Democrats which took 13% of the vote in September’s election. In effect, they did a Farage and pushed the centre-right into defeat. Sweden’s answer to Miliband was the beneficiary. Sort of.What’s changed? Right first time. An anti-immigration party with a charismatic leader, called Jimmie Åkesson (just 35, he’s just been diagnosed with chronic fatigue syndrome), has risen suddenly in the shape of the Sweden Democrats which took 13% of the vote in September’s election. In effect, they did a Farage and pushed the centre-right into defeat. Sweden’s answer to Miliband was the beneficiary. Sort of.
In Swedish parliamentary tradition, a party puts up its budget, sees it defeated and then abstains. The Swedish Democrats didn’t, they then voted with the centre-right’s budget proposals. Löfven decided he couldn’t allow the far right to have a veto on his government and called his election. Old lags, including the former foreign minister Carl Bildt, say he’s made a mistake – throwing down the red-green gauntlet, as one centrist put it.In Swedish parliamentary tradition, a party puts up its budget, sees it defeated and then abstains. The Swedish Democrats didn’t, they then voted with the centre-right’s budget proposals. Löfven decided he couldn’t allow the far right to have a veto on his government and called his election. Old lags, including the former foreign minister Carl Bildt, say he’s made a mistake – throwing down the red-green gauntlet, as one centrist put it.
Well done, many readers will say. Stand up to the xenophobes and racists who say they will campaign on immigration alone. But others will wonder. Calling a “who governs Sweden?” election invites the same answer British voters gave Ted Heath in February 1974. “Obviously not you, mate, because we pay you to sort out these problems.” In Heath’s case, it was the militant miners, not Sweden’s recent migrant surge, that triggered the crisis. Labour took office with a weak minority government under Harold Wilson, later Jim Callaghan, which staggered on a full five years.Well done, many readers will say. Stand up to the xenophobes and racists who say they will campaign on immigration alone. But others will wonder. Calling a “who governs Sweden?” election invites the same answer British voters gave Ted Heath in February 1974. “Obviously not you, mate, because we pay you to sort out these problems.” In Heath’s case, it was the militant miners, not Sweden’s recent migrant surge, that triggered the crisis. Labour took office with a weak minority government under Harold Wilson, later Jim Callaghan, which staggered on a full five years.
The miners seemed to have won, Labour set up a generous “social contract” which boosted the low-paid and industrial workers. But all that was reversed when the left’s foolishly self-inflicted “winter of discontent” (I blamed the unions more than Labour ministers – and still do) gave Margaret Thatcher a mandate which she used with courage and skill.The miners seemed to have won, Labour set up a generous “social contract” which boosted the low-paid and industrial workers. But all that was reversed when the left’s foolishly self-inflicted “winter of discontent” (I blamed the unions more than Labour ministers – and still do) gave Margaret Thatcher a mandate which she used with courage and skill.
This sort of scenario is looming all over Europe as populist parties – from Ukip and those Swedes to Marine le Pen and Italy’s fast-sinking Five Star Movement of the comic, Beppe Grillo – lead so-called peasants’ revolts against mainstream parties that are proving less than brilliant in coping with economic upheaval. This sort of scenario is looming all over Europe as populist parties – from Ukip and those Swedes to Marine Le Pen and Italy’s fast-sinking Five Star Movement of the comic, Beppe Grillo – lead so-called peasants’ revolts against mainstream parties that are proving less than brilliant in coping with economic upheaval.
Here’s Larry Elliott’s take on what may happen – it’s not a cheery read – if Osborne gets re-elected. Where I disagree is that it won’t be a cheery read either if Ed Balls becomes chancellor on 8 May. In the battle of the pundits Aditya Chakrabortty is gloomier, pointing out they’re all wedded to austerity one way or another.Here’s Larry Elliott’s take on what may happen – it’s not a cheery read – if Osborne gets re-elected. Where I disagree is that it won’t be a cheery read either if Ed Balls becomes chancellor on 8 May. In the battle of the pundits Aditya Chakrabortty is gloomier, pointing out they’re all wedded to austerity one way or another.
Former Economist editor, Bill Emmott, put it a different way in yesterday’s FT when he described the coming years as a contest between the eurozone’s tortoise of economic recovery – the slow strategies of austerity being dictated by Brussels and Berlin, as well as London – and the lively political hares of populism, mostly, but not all, on the right of the spectrum. Former Economist editor Bill Emmott put it a different way in yesterday’s FT when he described the coming years as a contest between the eurozone’s tortoise of economic recovery – the slow strategies of austerity being dictated by Brussels and Berlin, as well as London – and the lively political hares of populism, mostly, but not all, on the right of the spectrum.
Election winners in post-crash Spain and Greece now look pretty jaded. In Athens, Syriza, the leftist opposition, may succeed in blocking the choice of a new Greek president and is in prime position to win spring elections if they happen as a result. In Spain, the Podemos party did not exist 12 months ago – it’s led by a leftwing academic and Owen Jones likes it – but is ahead in the polls for an election no more than a year away.Election winners in post-crash Spain and Greece now look pretty jaded. In Athens, Syriza, the leftist opposition, may succeed in blocking the choice of a new Greek president and is in prime position to win spring elections if they happen as a result. In Spain, the Podemos party did not exist 12 months ago – it’s led by a leftwing academic and Owen Jones likes it – but is ahead in the polls for an election no more than a year away.
Did anyone mention Italy? Former Florence mayor Matteo Renzi, a Blairish 39-year-old, is struggling too as the new broom MP who can’t get structural economic reforms in debt-ridden Italy (far worse than in Britain) through a hostile parliament. Nowadays, all three main opposition parties in Rome, Grillo’s, the separtist, anti-immigrant Northern League and the rightwing Forza Italia (led by a bloke called Berlusconi – remember him?) want a referendum on the euro – withdrawal from the EU in the League’s case. Did anyone mention Italy? Former Florence mayor Matteo Renzi, a Blairish 39-year-old, is struggling too as the new broom MP who can’t get structural economic reforms in debt-ridden Italy (far worse than in Britain) through a hostile parliament. Nowadays, all three main opposition parties in Rome, Grillo’s, the separatist, anti-immigrant Northern League and the rightwing Forza Italia (led by a bloke called Berlusconi – remember him?) want a referendum on the euro – withdrawal from the EU in the League’s case.
In other words, the hare sometimes wins that famous race. Not in ultra-responsible Germany where they’re still recovering from Hitler hare, but elsewhere in different, milder but disruptive forms. Populists are better at asking questions than seriously answering them. In other words, the hare sometimes wins that famous race. Not in ultra-responsible Germany where they’re still recovering from hare Hitler, but elsewhere in different, milder but disruptive forms. Populists are better at asking questions than seriously answering them.
Lively stuff, eh ? It couldn’t happen here? The markets wouldn’t like it, they’d push down sterling and push up interest rates (the low rates on which some of Osborne’s fantasy numbers depended on Wednesday) But why not? As George Bernard Shaw once had a character say: “Do not believe the laws of God were suspended for England because you were born there.” The great Irishman was referring to Britain, of course. (That still includes Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon.) Oil prices are 30% down and falling, even in Scotland. Lively stuff, eh? It couldn’t happen here? The markets wouldn’t like it, they’d push down sterling and push up interest rates (the low rates on which some of Osborne’s fantasy numbers depended on Wednesday) But why not? As George Bernard Shaw once had a character say: “Do not believe the laws of God were suspended for England because you were born there.” The great Irishman was referring to Britain, of course. (That still includes Scotland, Nicola Sturgeon.) Oil prices are 30% down and falling, even in Scotland.