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| Tension as Nigeria gears up for presidential elections | Tension as Nigeria gears up for presidential elections |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| “Jungle don mature” [the jungle has matured] goes the Nigerian slang meaning: “the game is on.” It is a phrase on the lips of more than one Nigerian political commentator and aptly describes the tension as Africa’s most populous nation gears up for presidential elections just eight weeks away. | |
| The game is nearing its climax as more than 8,000 delegates gather in Lagos on Thursday to choose the opposition candidate who will face President Goodluck Jonathan in February elections. | The game is nearing its climax as more than 8,000 delegates gather in Lagos on Thursday to choose the opposition candidate who will face President Goodluck Jonathan in February elections. |
| Jonathan’s own party is also holding primaries but the incumbent is the sole contestant, despite grumbles that his candidature breaks an unwritten rule that the presidency should rotate between the Muslim-majority north and predominantly Christian south every two terms. | Jonathan’s own party is also holding primaries but the incumbent is the sole contestant, despite grumbles that his candidature breaks an unwritten rule that the presidency should rotate between the Muslim-majority north and predominantly Christian south every two terms. |
| Few events show the underlying machinery of Nigeria’s political culture better than primary elections which inevitably throw up backstabbing, legal wrangles, last-minute defections and backroom deals as politicians jostle to end up with winning tickets. | Few events show the underlying machinery of Nigeria’s political culture better than primary elections which inevitably throw up backstabbing, legal wrangles, last-minute defections and backroom deals as politicians jostle to end up with winning tickets. |
| The primaries this year come against a backdrop of sliding oil prices, which have battered the economy of Africa’s top oil exporter, and an Islamist insurgency raging in the north. | The primaries this year come against a backdrop of sliding oil prices, which have battered the economy of Africa’s top oil exporter, and an Islamist insurgency raging in the north. |
| Even as delegates prepared to cast their votes, two bomb blasts in the northern capital of Kano underlined the deteriorating security. Politicians have accused one another of using the shadowy Boko Haram militants to attack their opponents. Amid such high tension, the elections may be the biggest test yet of Nigeria’s institutional integrity since a return to democracy in 1999. | Even as delegates prepared to cast their votes, two bomb blasts in the northern capital of Kano underlined the deteriorating security. Politicians have accused one another of using the shadowy Boko Haram militants to attack their opponents. Amid such high tension, the elections may be the biggest test yet of Nigeria’s institutional integrity since a return to democracy in 1999. |
| Five aspirants are bidding for the All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket, but the primaries are largely seen as a two-horse race between Muhammadu Buhari, a taciturn ex-military dictator taking his fourth shot at presidency, and flamboyant, wealthy businessman Atiku Abubakar, who has previously served as a vice-president. | Five aspirants are bidding for the All Progressives Congress (APC) ticket, but the primaries are largely seen as a two-horse race between Muhammadu Buhari, a taciturn ex-military dictator taking his fourth shot at presidency, and flamboyant, wealthy businessman Atiku Abubakar, who has previously served as a vice-president. |
| The winner will take what is widely seen as the best chance yet to dislodge the ruling People’s Democratic party (PDP) from power for the first time since the military relinquished control. The fact that an unwieldy opposition held together this long is itself a rare achievement. The fragility of the coalition was underscored when all the runners were asked to signed contracts saying they would continue to back whoever won. | The winner will take what is widely seen as the best chance yet to dislodge the ruling People’s Democratic party (PDP) from power for the first time since the military relinquished control. The fact that an unwieldy opposition held together this long is itself a rare achievement. The fragility of the coalition was underscored when all the runners were asked to signed contracts saying they would continue to back whoever won. |
| “Change is absolutely necessary for Nigeria this time. The fact that we have remained with one party for 16 years is bad enough”, said Bashir Tofa, a previous candidate for present, initially in 1993 when military rule reached its nadir when the result was later annulled. | “Change is absolutely necessary for Nigeria this time. The fact that we have remained with one party for 16 years is bad enough”, said Bashir Tofa, a previous candidate for present, initially in 1993 when military rule reached its nadir when the result was later annulled. |
| Many welcomed Buhari when he seized power as a general in 1983. His 20-month regime was defined by its anti-corruption stance, although crackdowns on dissidence and opponents alarmed rights groups. | Many welcomed Buhari when he seized power as a general in 1983. His 20-month regime was defined by its anti-corruption stance, although crackdowns on dissidence and opponents alarmed rights groups. |
| “He made probably the single biggest effort to clamp down on corruption in Nigeria, and he’s remembered for that,” said John Campbell, a former US ambassador to Nigeria, who feels Buhari’s campaign is thin on policy detail despite decades on the scene. | “He made probably the single biggest effort to clamp down on corruption in Nigeria, and he’s remembered for that,” said John Campbell, a former US ambassador to Nigeria, who feels Buhari’s campaign is thin on policy detail despite decades on the scene. |
| Insecurity and unemployment have worsened under successive governments, but even those old enough to remember Buhari’s time in power are not all fans. “I didn’t like that period at all,” said Victoria Feyisipo, 64, who runs a small tailor shop overlooking a typically bustling, crowded street in downtown Lagos. | Insecurity and unemployment have worsened under successive governments, but even those old enough to remember Buhari’s time in power are not all fans. “I didn’t like that period at all,” said Victoria Feyisipo, 64, who runs a small tailor shop overlooking a typically bustling, crowded street in downtown Lagos. |
| “It was so tense, so strict. It was like Nigeria died, having to queue for every little thing, soldiers flogging anyone who disobeyed.” | “It was so tense, so strict. It was like Nigeria died, having to queue for every little thing, soldiers flogging anyone who disobeyed.” |
| Identity politics is never far in Nigeria, and Buhari’s image as a strict Muslim may cost him support in the more liberal and more Christian south. | Identity politics is never far in Nigeria, and Buhari’s image as a strict Muslim may cost him support in the more liberal and more Christian south. |
| In contrast, his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar, has an image for being a slick political operator, whose skills at moving between parties are seen as an asset in manoeuvring an ever-shifting political field. | In contrast, his main challenger, Atiku Abubakar, has an image for being a slick political operator, whose skills at moving between parties are seen as an asset in manoeuvring an ever-shifting political field. |
| Babalola Borishade, who has served as a minister four times, said: “Atiku has a wide network of friends because of his [participation] in government since the military era. That is vital for success.” | Babalola Borishade, who has served as a minister four times, said: “Atiku has a wide network of friends because of his [participation] in government since the military era. That is vital for success.” |
| While other politicians have played up on personality politics, Atiku (his first name is always used for some reason) has produced a detailed addressing security and job creation challenges. A formidable war chest from decades in various businesses has also helped, but it has come with allegations of corruption dating back to his time as a customs official. | While other politicians have played up on personality politics, Atiku (his first name is always used for some reason) has produced a detailed addressing security and job creation challenges. A formidable war chest from decades in various businesses has also helped, but it has come with allegations of corruption dating back to his time as a customs official. |
| Each week brings fresh evidence of how high the stakes are in a country bubbling with petrodollars. | Each week brings fresh evidence of how high the stakes are in a country bubbling with petrodollars. |
| In April, a man carrying ballot boxes had his arm hacked off as the election of APC ward leaders descended into chaos. The number of votes cast at local level primaries has sometimes exceeded delegates registered. And last month, police teargassed the parliament in an attempt to prevent the speaker, who had defected from the ruling party, from casting a vote. The heat will only be turned up as presidential campaigning begins in earnest. | In April, a man carrying ballot boxes had his arm hacked off as the election of APC ward leaders descended into chaos. The number of votes cast at local level primaries has sometimes exceeded delegates registered. And last month, police teargassed the parliament in an attempt to prevent the speaker, who had defected from the ruling party, from casting a vote. The heat will only be turned up as presidential campaigning begins in earnest. |
| Additional reporting by Abdulaziz Abdulaziz in Abuja | Additional reporting by Abdulaziz Abdulaziz in Abuja |
| The candidates in their own words | The candidates in their own words |
| “Unspeakable horrors are now being committed daily. Our country is more divided today than at any time since the end of the [1967 – 1970] civil war. To put it bluntly, our country seems to be on auto pilot with no one in charge. We cannot continue down this path. And that is why I am a proud member of this platform for change.” – Atiku Abubakar announcing his presidential candidacy in September. | “Unspeakable horrors are now being committed daily. Our country is more divided today than at any time since the end of the [1967 – 1970] civil war. To put it bluntly, our country seems to be on auto pilot with no one in charge. We cannot continue down this path. And that is why I am a proud member of this platform for change.” – Atiku Abubakar announcing his presidential candidacy in September. |
| “Nigeria in my experience has never been so divided, so polarised by an unthinking government hell-bent on ruling and stealing for ever whatever befalls the country. We in APC are resolved to bring change to Nigeria. We plan to do things differently.” – Muhammadu Buhari announcing his presidential candidacy in October. | “Nigeria in my experience has never been so divided, so polarised by an unthinking government hell-bent on ruling and stealing for ever whatever befalls the country. We in APC are resolved to bring change to Nigeria. We plan to do things differently.” – Muhammadu Buhari announcing his presidential candidacy in October. |
| Who are the APC? | Who are the APC? |
| The All Progressives Congress was formed in February 2013 after a remarkable merger between Nigeria’s ever-squabbling opposition parties. The founding parties were largely regional groupings, but the APC has since drawn defectors from the powerful ruling party. Its core support is in the Muslim-majority north and in the south-western commercial capital of Lagos, the engine of Africa’s biggest economy. | The All Progressives Congress was formed in February 2013 after a remarkable merger between Nigeria’s ever-squabbling opposition parties. The founding parties were largely regional groupings, but the APC has since drawn defectors from the powerful ruling party. Its core support is in the Muslim-majority north and in the south-western commercial capital of Lagos, the engine of Africa’s biggest economy. |
| What platform is the APC running on? | What platform is the APC running on? |
| Nigerians are desperate to see change that could reverse the deteriorating security, switch on the lights and improve dire infrastructure. The APC have tapped into this. Its flag depicts a hand clutching a broom, and they are handed out at public rallies to symbolise sweeping the old and ushering in the new. | Nigerians are desperate to see change that could reverse the deteriorating security, switch on the lights and improve dire infrastructure. The APC have tapped into this. Its flag depicts a hand clutching a broom, and they are handed out at public rallies to symbolise sweeping the old and ushering in the new. |
| But it has yet to provide any solid details on how it plans to tackle a system that thrives on corruption. | But it has yet to provide any solid details on how it plans to tackle a system that thrives on corruption. |
| The change slogan has also been tarnished by the inclusion of governors wanted on corruption charges, while presidential frontrunner Atiku Abubakar’s flip-flopping between whichever party is on the up has not helped. | The change slogan has also been tarnished by the inclusion of governors wanted on corruption charges, while presidential frontrunner Atiku Abubakar’s flip-flopping between whichever party is on the up has not helped. |
| Why are the primaries important? | Why are the primaries important? |
| Despite progress in agricultural reforms and small steps towards improving power generation, corruption has mushroomed to a frenzied pace under current president Goodluck Jonathan’s tenure. In theory, whoever wins the APC primary has the potential to steer Africa’s giant in a new direction. Against the rise of Islamist groups such as Isis, the new president will have to tackle Boko Haram and Ansaru militants who are apparently seeking to extend ties with other groups in the Sahara belt. | Despite progress in agricultural reforms and small steps towards improving power generation, corruption has mushroomed to a frenzied pace under current president Goodluck Jonathan’s tenure. In theory, whoever wins the APC primary has the potential to steer Africa’s giant in a new direction. Against the rise of Islamist groups such as Isis, the new president will have to tackle Boko Haram and Ansaru militants who are apparently seeking to extend ties with other groups in the Sahara belt. |
| What chance does the APC have of winning? | What chance does the APC have of winning? |
| Although discontent is widespread, the advantage rests with the incumbent, who sits on a vast patronage network. Politics remains a game of identity and personality, rather than issues. | Although discontent is widespread, the advantage rests with the incumbent, who sits on a vast patronage network. Politics remains a game of identity and personality, rather than issues. |