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Jeb Bush’s decision to explore presidential bid scrambles the 2016 GOP field Jeb Bush’s decision to explore presidential bid scrambles the 2016 GOP field
(about 1 hour later)
Jeb Bush’s announcement Tuesday that he is actively exploring a 2016 presidential run scrambles the large Republican field, thrusting him to the front of the pack and locking up a huge swath of veteran party fundraisers being wooed by other candidates. Jeb Bush’s announcement Tuesday that he is actively exploring a 2016 presidential run scrambles the large Republican field, thrusting him to the front of the pack and locking up a huge swath of longtime party fundraisers being wooed by other candidates.
Bush, the 61-year-old son and brother of two former presidents, declared in a Facebook post Tuesday that he intends to set up a leadership PAC in January to “discuss the most critical challenges facing our exceptional nation” with American citizens. Bush, the 61-year-old son of a president and the brother of another, declared in a Facebook post Tuesday that he intends to set up a leadership PAC in January to “discuss the most critical challenges facing our exceptional nation” with Americans.
The early move by the former Florida governor is likely to severely undercut the financial backing for other 2016 contenders, such as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida. In addition, Bush’s presence in the race could make it difficult for lesser-known candidates, such as Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, to gain traction, well-connected Republicans said. The early move by the former Florida governor is likely to severely undercut the financial backing for other possible 2016 contenders, such as New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.). In addition, a Bush candidacy could make it difficult for lesser-known potential candidates, such as Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, to gain traction, well-connected Republicans said.
The declaration also lessens the pressure on Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, to jump into the race. The declaration also raises questions about whether there will still be an appetite for Mitt Romney, the 2012 GOP nominee, to enter the running.
The most immediate impact of Bush’s decision is on the money race, which has remained largely static as party donors waited to see what he did. Now, large numbers of center-right financiers are likely to rush to Bush, draining the pool of financial backers available for other candidates. A Washington Post-ABC News poll released Tuesday found Bush with a narrow edge over a crowded field of potential GOP contenders if Romney were not in the race. Bush garners 15 percent support among Republicans and GOP-leaning independents, with Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.) and Rep. Paul Ryan (Wis.) each netting 11 percent. Support for all three top candidates is within the poll’s five-point margin of sampling error.
“I think Jeb’s decision this early unexpectedly freezes many potential donors and bundlers who were exploring going with a Christie or another candidate,” said John Horne, a top party fundraiser in Arkansas. If Romney ran again, he would enter the race with 20 percent support, leading his rivals by 10 points or more.
The survey found that the GOP field is the most fractured it has been in more than two decades. Without Romney in the race, support is split among more than a dozen contenders, with no candidate having a clear base of support.
Bush’s early announcement puts pressure on others contemplating a bid — particularly Romney and Christie — to speed up their timetables, said Bobbie Kilberg, a top Republican fundraiser in Virginia.
“This frontloads everything,” Kilberg said, adding, “What he’s saying is, ‘I’m out and I’m ready,’ and so it puts pressure on others in the center-right to do the same.”
The most immediate impact of Bush’s decision is on the money race, which has remained largely static as party donors waited to see what he did. Now, large numbers of center-right financiers are likely to rush to him, draining the pool of financial backers available for other candidates.
“I think Jeb’s decision this early unexpectedly freezes many potential donors and bundlers who were exploring going with Christie or another candidate,” said John Horne, a top party fundraiser in Arkansas.
By midday Tuesday, Kilberg said she had received calls from a dozen donors asking, “Okay, what do we do now?”
“This is going to put pressure on donors to make up their minds earlier rather than later,” she said.
One major advantage for Bush is the vast network of former ambassadors and onetime senior government appointees who served in the administrations of his father and brother.One major advantage for Bush is the vast network of former ambassadors and onetime senior government appointees who served in the administrations of his father and brother.
Mel Sembler — ambassador to Australia for President George H. W. Bush and the ambassador to Italy for President George W. Bush — said Tuesday that he is now committed to raising money for Jeb Bush, even though he has been an admirer of Rubio. Mel Sembler — ambassador to Australia for President George H.W. Bush and the ambassador to Italy for President George W. Bush — said Tuesday that he is committed to raising money for Jeb Bush, even though he has been an admirer of Rubio.
“I think that this is going to help Rubio make a decision, and it would be pretty difficult for him to compete against Jeb,” Sembler said. “I have great affection for Marco, but Jeb has the executive experience, and there’s a difference. That’s the problem we’re having right now: Our present president came to office without executive experience, and I’m afraid it’s showing.”“I think that this is going to help Rubio make a decision, and it would be pretty difficult for him to compete against Jeb,” Sembler said. “I have great affection for Marco, but Jeb has the executive experience, and there’s a difference. That’s the problem we’re having right now: Our present president came to office without executive experience, and I’m afraid it’s showing.”
In a statement, Rubio spokesman Alex Conant said, “Marco has a lot of respect for Governor Bush, and believes he would be a formidable candidate. However, Marco’s decision on whether to run for President or re-election will be based on where he can best achieve his agenda to restore the American Dream — not on who else might be running.”In a statement, Rubio spokesman Alex Conant said, “Marco has a lot of respect for Governor Bush, and believes he would be a formidable candidate. However, Marco’s decision on whether to run for President or re-election will be based on where he can best achieve his agenda to restore the American Dream — not on who else might be running.”
A Perry representative sounded a similar message. “This is not going to impact what Rick Perry decides to do,” said adviser Jeff Miller. “Rick Perry will still raise a significant amount of money to be competitive if he decides to run for president.” A Perry representative sounded a similar message. “This is not going to impact what Rick Perry decides to do,” adviser Jeff Miller said. “Rick Perry will still raise a significant amount of money to be competitive if he decides to run for president.”
Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) also gave voice Tuesday to lingering doubts about the viability of another presidential run by a member of the Bush family. “I don’t think we need another Bush. Period,” Coburn told reporters at the Capitol. “I like ‘em all, but I don’t think we need another Bush.” Sen. Tom Coburn (R-Okla.) also gave voice Tuesday to lingering doubts about the viability of another presidential run by a member of the Bush family. “I don’t think we need another Bush. Period,” he told reporters at the Capitol. “I like ’em all, but I don’t think we need another Bush.”
Bobbie Kilberg, a top Republican fundraiser in Virginia, said that by midday Tuesday she already had calls from a dozen donors asking, “Okay, what do we do now?” By Tuesday afternoon, there were already signs of the tough road Bush would face in winning over some conservative activists. In a fundraising e-mail for his super PAC Conservative Action Fund, GOP donor Shaun McCutcheon wrote, “If you agree that Republicans will lose again with another establishment, compromising Republican who will support expansion of our already unmanageable federal government, then I need you to sign your name to our petition to Stop Jeb Bush NOW!”
“This frontloads everything,” Kilberg said. “This is going to put pressure on donors to make up their minds earlier rather than later.” Bush could still decide not to enter the race. Until recently, many top Republicans remained skeptical that the political scion would make his own White House run.
Kilberg said Bush’s announcement appeared to be in reaction to center-right fundraisers such as herself, who have been searching for ways to “clear the field” so as not to divide their resources. Kristy Campbell, a spokeswoman for Bush, said Tuesday that “he has not made a final decision on pursuing a candidacy.”
“What he’s saying is, ‘I’m out and I’m ready,’ and so it puts pressure on others the center-right to do the same,” she added. “This is a natural next step — to actively explore the possibility of a run and gauge if there would be support for one,” she added.
Bush could still decide not to enter the race. Up until recently, many top Republicans remained skeptical that the political scion would make his own White House run. His leadership PAC will allow Bush and his team “to work together in a more focused way on advocating specific policies and supporting candidates committed to a shared vision of restoring the promise of America,” Campbell said.
But the pace of activity in Bush’s circle ramped up dramatically over the past week. The former governor and his top advisers reached out personally to major donors, asking them not to commit to others. Top strategist Mike Murphy contacted potential campaign staffers, indicating a campaign could launch early next year. The pace of activity in Bush’s circle ramped up dramatically over the past week. The former governor and his top advisers reached out to major donors, asking them not to commit to others. Top strategist Mike Murphy contacted potential campaign staff members, indicating a campaign could begin early next year.
A tightknit group of longtime aides, led by California-based strategist Murphy and Florida-based confidante Sally Bradshaw, have been huddling with Bush in recent weeks, sketching out the look and feel of a possible 2016 campaign.A tightknit group of longtime aides, led by California-based strategist Murphy and Florida-based confidante Sally Bradshaw, have been huddling with Bush in recent weeks, sketching out the look and feel of a possible 2016 campaign.
Their thinking is that Bush — who was last on a ballot in 2002 — would need to be aggressive and digitally savvy, challenging any impressions that he is an establishment moderate with sclerotic campaign skills.Their thinking is that Bush — who was last on a ballot in 2002 — would need to be aggressive and digitally savvy, challenging any impressions that he is an establishment moderate with sclerotic campaign skills.
Instead, they would attempt to cast him as an accessible conservative reformer who is not from Washington, according to Republicans who have spoken with Murphy and Bradshaw. Instead, they would attempt to cast him as an accessible conservative reformer who is not from Washington, said Republicans who have spoken with Murphy and Bradshaw.
This past weekend, Bush gave an extensive interview to a Miami television station in which he announced plans to release an e-book and all of his e-mails from his tenure as governor.This past weekend, Bush gave an extensive interview to a Miami television station in which he announced plans to release an e-book and all of his e-mails from his tenure as governor.
In the interview, he sketched out the philosophical approach he would take in a campaign, saying “you have to be true to who you are.” In the interview, he outlined the philosophical approach he would take in a campaign, saying, “You have to be true to who you are.”
It’s no longer “the old days,” Bush said, when “you were in a back room with political operatives [and] they said, ‘Okay, here’s the plan, shift to the left and then move back to the center if you’re a Democrat, or do the same on the right.”It’s no longer “the old days,” Bush said, when “you were in a back room with political operatives [and] they said, ‘Okay, here’s the plan, shift to the left and then move back to the center if you’re a Democrat, or do the same on the right.”
“In the world we’re in now, where there’s such deep disaffection, where people don’t trust institutions, they don’t trust the political parties,” he said, adding that a candidate can’t “just kind say you’re for one thing, and then change it after you win the primary.”“In the world we’re in now, where there’s such deep disaffection, where people don’t trust institutions, they don’t trust the political parties,” he said, adding that a candidate can’t “just kind say you’re for one thing, and then change it after you win the primary.”
The former governor indicated he would not back away from his support for Common Core education standards or a comprehensive immigration overhaul — two hot-button issues that have raised the ire of conservative activists. The former governor indicated that he would not back away from his support for Common Core education standards or a comprehensive immigration overhaul — two hot-button issues that have raised the ire of conservative activists.
Bush said that he believes Romney was hurt in the 2012 primaries when he “got sucked into other people’s agendas” and moved too far to the right. He also said he thinks “almost daily” about what would have happened if Romney had won the White House instead of President Obama. Bush said he thinks Romney was hurt in the 2012 primaries when he “got sucked into other people’s agendas” and moved too far to the right. He also said he thinks “almost daily” about what would have happened if Romney had won the White House instead of President Obama.
“Winning with purpose, wining with meaning, winning with your integrity is what I’m trying to talk about,” Bush said. “Winning with purpose, winning with meaning, winning with your integrity is what I’m trying to talk about,” Bush said.
The only way to succeed in the end, he added, would be to run a positive campaign and not to run down other Republican candidates.The only way to succeed in the end, he added, would be to run a positive campaign and not to run down other Republican candidates.
“You don’t do well in bringing people together if you’re carpin’, criticizing, turning around and saying, well, you’re not as good as me,” he said. “You have got to stay above the fray and be respectful of good fine, people that will be running, as well.” “You don’t do well in bringing people together if you’re carping, criticizing, turning around and saying, ‘Well, you’re not as good as me,’ ” he said. “You have got to stay above the fray and be respectful of good, fine people that will be running, as well.”
Sean Sullivan in Washington and Robert Costa in Des Moines contributed to this report. Scott Clement and Sean Sullivan in Washington and Robert Costa in Des Moines contributed to this report.