This article is from the source 'washpo' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/history-suggests-that-a-no-snow-december-means-little-snow-during-rest-of-winter/2015/01/01/cf0a5afe-912d-11e4-a900-9960214d4cd7_story.html?wprss=rss_homepage
The article has changed 4 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| History suggests that a no-snow December in D.C. means little snow the rest of winter | History suggests that a no-snow December in D.C. means little snow the rest of winter |
| (about 2 hours later) | |
| After last winter you were ready to pack up and move south. | After last winter you were ready to pack up and move south. |
| Too much cold, too much snow, too much wretched weather. | Too much cold, too much snow, too much wretched weather. |
| This winter? So far, not so much. And the odds are that a snowless December in the nation’s capital — as measured by the weather station at Reagan National Airport — will be followed by a couple of months with far less snow than last year. | This winter? So far, not so much. And the odds are that a snowless December in the nation’s capital — as measured by the weather station at Reagan National Airport — will be followed by a couple of months with far less snow than last year. |
| Maybe. | Maybe. |
| The hope of fair-minded people — those who don’t have ski racks atop their cars, that is — for a respite from last year’s snow lies more with history than with meteorological forecasts. | |
| Since 1872, there have been 18 times when no snow had fallen in Washington by Dec. 31. On average, following a no-snow December, fewer than four inches of snow fell in the District during the rest of the winter. That’s a lot less than the normal 15.4 inches for the season. | Since 1872, there have been 18 times when no snow had fallen in Washington by Dec. 31. On average, following a no-snow December, fewer than four inches of snow fell in the District during the rest of the winter. That’s a lot less than the normal 15.4 inches for the season. |
| While most people admit to liking a snow day now and then — sitting by the window all snug and warm with a second cup of coffee — a December without snow was perfection for online Santa and his express-mail elves. | While most people admit to liking a snow day now and then — sitting by the window all snug and warm with a second cup of coffee — a December without snow was perfection for online Santa and his express-mail elves. |
| Erin Truxal of FedEx called last winter “the worst weather in company history.” This year, conditions were much more forgiving in the mad dash of deliveries before Christmas. And with the economy on the rebound, Truxal said she expects the rest of the winter to be busy too. | |
| Though history is on the side of a low-snow balance of the winter season after a no-snow November and December, meteorologists aren’t quite ready to embrace the notion that it won’t snow very much this month or next just because it hasn’t in the past. | Though history is on the side of a low-snow balance of the winter season after a no-snow November and December, meteorologists aren’t quite ready to embrace the notion that it won’t snow very much this month or next just because it hasn’t in the past. |
| “I thought December was sort of going to be a write-off and it certainly was,” said Judah Cohen, lead seasonal forecaster for AER Inc., who favored a cold and snowy winter. | “I thought December was sort of going to be a write-off and it certainly was,” said Judah Cohen, lead seasonal forecaster for AER Inc., who favored a cold and snowy winter. |
| Cohen thinks the polar vortex is going to split, delivering a weather pattern that could make for cold and snowy conditions later in January and February. | Cohen thinks the polar vortex is going to split, delivering a weather pattern that could make for cold and snowy conditions later in January and February. |
| “The split is going to reshuffle the deck,” he said. “That kind of starts the wintry pattern for the Northern Hemisphere.” | “The split is going to reshuffle the deck,” he said. “That kind of starts the wintry pattern for the Northern Hemisphere.” |
| He said it isn’t clear whether the splitting vortex will direct frigid air toward eastern North America. | He said it isn’t clear whether the splitting vortex will direct frigid air toward eastern North America. |
| “The models are having a really tough time,” he said. “There’s a lot of model uncertainty and spread.” | “The models are having a really tough time,” he said. “There’s a lot of model uncertainty and spread.” |
| Without snow or biting cold to complain about last month, people had to suffer in silence through the melancholia that typifies winter weather hereabouts: chilly, damp, gray lugubriousness, pierced by the sun only rarely. | |
| Meanwhile, municipal snow-removal budgets that had been beefed up in the wake of last year’s storms remained untouched. And public school officials who had added extra days or minutes to their calendars in anticipation of snow cancellations found themselves wondering when bad weather might hit. | |
| Jeffrey Platenberg, assistant superintendent for Fairfax County Public Schools, counted four nights in December that he was up at 2:30 a.m., checking road conditions to see if the rains had turned to ice as temperatures hovered just above freezing. | |
| “If we had had a few more days of basically colder temperatures, all that rain we had would have been a phenomenal amount of snow. But it just didn’t happen,” Platenberg said. “Right now I’m a happy guy, I gotta tell you.” | |
| Two Virginia districts, Prince William and Loudoun counties, got special permission from the state to start school before Labor Day next fall, after losing so much time to snow last school year. | |
| Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group and forecaster for the Capital Weather Gang, hasn’t shied away from the idea it may be cold and snowy during the rest of this winter. | |
| “The odds shift towards improved snow and cold possibilities in January and especially February,” Rogers said. “”I think a weak-moderate El Nino is still going to deliver and February offers the best chance to do it.” | “The odds shift towards improved snow and cold possibilities in January and especially February,” Rogers said. “”I think a weak-moderate El Nino is still going to deliver and February offers the best chance to do it.” |
| One of Rogers’s customers needs to know the forecast for a reason that few other people thing about. Allen Rather is a Texas-based independent analyst for the natural-gas industry. He points out that gas used for home heating and lots of other things should be plentiful and relatively cheap this winter — unless there’s a prolonged cold spell. | One of Rogers’s customers needs to know the forecast for a reason that few other people thing about. Allen Rather is a Texas-based independent analyst for the natural-gas industry. He points out that gas used for home heating and lots of other things should be plentiful and relatively cheap this winter — unless there’s a prolonged cold spell. |
| Natural gas freezes. It emerges from the well-head mixed with liquid. | Natural gas freezes. It emerges from the well-head mixed with liquid. |
| “What we saw last winter has not been the case this winter at all,” Rather said. “Based on the way [the winter] started, we’ve had plenty of time to get supplies up and as long as we don’t get the freeze off then we still have a pretty good scenario. There will be cold, but it’s probably not going to be where we were last year.” | “What we saw last winter has not been the case this winter at all,” Rather said. “Based on the way [the winter] started, we’ve had plenty of time to get supplies up and as long as we don’t get the freeze off then we still have a pretty good scenario. There will be cold, but it’s probably not going to be where we were last year.” |
| Rather said the confidence of analysts was a bit shaken after forecasted early cold snaps this winter didn’t materialize. | Rather said the confidence of analysts was a bit shaken after forecasted early cold snaps this winter didn’t materialize. |
| Dave Tolleris, a forecaster at WxRisk.com, said his forecast for the winter was “busted” when harsher weather didn’t arrive. | Dave Tolleris, a forecaster at WxRisk.com, said his forecast for the winter was “busted” when harsher weather didn’t arrive. |
| “I don’t think the first half of January is going to be great [for cold and snow],” Tolleris said. He added, however, that it would be a mistake to think the rest of the winter will be mild or free of snow. | “I don’t think the first half of January is going to be great [for cold and snow],” Tolleris said. He added, however, that it would be a mistake to think the rest of the winter will be mild or free of snow. |
| “A busted winter forecast does not mean no winter,” Tolleris said. “There’s a difference between a busted forecast and no winter at all.” | “A busted winter forecast does not mean no winter,” Tolleris said. “There’s a difference between a busted forecast and no winter at all.” |
| Michael Alison Chandler contributed to this report. |