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Early Returns Show a New President for Sri Lanka Sri Lankan President Appears to Lose Election
(about 2 hours later)
NEW DELHI — With early counting showing Sri Lanka’s president, Mahinda Rajapaksa, trailing his challenger, the former health minister Maithripala Sirisena, a presidential spokesman has told local media that the Mr. Rajapaksa was leaving his official residence “to allow the new president to assume his duties.” NEW DELHI —  With early counting showing Sri Lanka’s President Mahinda Rajapaksa trailing his challenger, the former health minister Maithripala Sirisena, a presidential spokesman has told local media that Mr. Rajapaksa had left his official residence “to allow the new president to assume his duties.”
“President Mahinda Rajapaksa has left Temple Trees a short while ago,” said the statement from Mr. Rajapaksa’s media director. “President Rajapaksa said he is leaving in order to respect the verdict of the people.” “President Mahinda Rajapaksa has left Temple Trees a short while ago,” said the statement from Wijeyananada Herath, Mr. Rajapaksa’s media director “President Rajapaksa said he is leaving in order to respect the verdict of the people.”
It added that Mr. Rajapaksa had held a pre-dawn meeting with Ranil Wickramasinghe, the leader of the opposition United National Party, during which he informed Mr. Wickramasinghe that he would leave to allow his successor to assume power. It added that Mr. Rajapaksa had held a pre-dawn meeting with Ranil Wickramasinghe, the leader of the opposition United National Party, during which he informed Mr. Wickramasinghe that he would leave to allow his successor to assume power. 
Mr. Rajapaksa’s son Namal wrote on Twitter that his family had accepted the results.
“Thank you to everyone who supported us through these years,” he said. “We respect the voice of the people and Sri Lanka’s great democracy.”
Voters in Sri Lanka turned out in unusually high numbers on Thursday for the election, which became a referendum on the performance of Mr. Rajapaksa, a larger-than-life figure who during nearly a decade in office has built close ties with China, begun a campaign of “megadevelopment” and sharply centralized power in one of Asia’s oldest democracies.Voters in Sri Lanka turned out in unusually high numbers on Thursday for the election, which became a referendum on the performance of Mr. Rajapaksa, a larger-than-life figure who during nearly a decade in office has built close ties with China, begun a campaign of “megadevelopment” and sharply centralized power in one of Asia’s oldest democracies.
Mr. Rajapaksa’s defeat is remarkable because he had an overwhelming advantage going into the election, which he decided to hold two years ahead of schedule. His image is ubiquitous in Sri Lanka’s public spaces. Campaign rallies were opulent, well-funded affairs, where he addressed a sea of voters bussed in from surrounding villages. Mr. Sirisena, unable to book stadiums, spoke to people gathered in vacant lots.
Mr. Rajapaksa had steadily tightened his grip on power over the last several years, amending the Constitution to eliminate term limits and dismissing a supreme court justice who resisted his changes. But he did so under favorable circumstances, riding a wave of popularity among majority Sinhalese after crushing the Tamil insurgency in the north. Since that victory, Sri Lanka has benefited from a thriving tourist industry and has the highest economic growth rate in the region, leading many to conclude that voters would tolerate his consolidation of power.
Thursday’s vote calls that calculus into question, said Paikiasothy Saravanamuttu, executive director of the Center for Policy Alternatives in Colombo.
“Basically the electorate has turned its back on misgovernance and the dynastic project, as well as authoritarianism,” he said. 
After counting began on Thursday night, he said, the president must have quickly understood that he had lost the election, and been encouraged to concede by army and police officials.
“I think he saw the writing on the wall,” Mr. Saravanamuttu said. “He would have realized there was a swing. His representatives within the arms of the state would have told him, ‘Look, we are not going to buck the popular will.’”
The upset introduces significant uncertainty in Sri Lanka. Mr. Sirisena has promised to abolish the strong presidency introduced by Mr. Rajapaksa and return the country to a parliamentary system, but the coalition around him is a sprawling, diverse one, including Buddhist nationalists, Marxists, and center-right politicians, among others. Dayan Jayatilleka, a former diplomat, said late Thursday that he expected some turbulence to emerge in the coming months.
“The opposition will certainly have a transition plan, and chances of instability are small, because the state machinery will switch to the winner,” he said. “Instability will set in later, if at all, when the executive presidency is abolished and multi-polarity has set in.”
The contest became surprisingly close in November, when Mr. Sirisena, a longtime loyalist from Mr. Rajapaksa’s own party, suddenly defected and declared himself a challenger. Mr. Sirisena was followed by other defectors who focused their campaigns on Mr. Rajapaksa’s vulnerabilities — especially allegations that his family members, who occupy dozens of government posts, have enriched themselves at the expense of ordinary citizens.The contest became surprisingly close in November, when Mr. Sirisena, a longtime loyalist from Mr. Rajapaksa’s own party, suddenly defected and declared himself a challenger. Mr. Sirisena was followed by other defectors who focused their campaigns on Mr. Rajapaksa’s vulnerabilities — especially allegations that his family members, who occupy dozens of government posts, have enriched themselves at the expense of ordinary citizens.
As voting ended on Thursday, a spokesman for Mr. Rajapaksa predicted that the president would win but that the margin would be smaller than it was in the last election, which he won with 58 percent of the vote. Mr. Rajapaksa had much at stake: His prospects were linked to those of his relatives, many of whom occupy top government posts and have been accused of corruption by opposition campaigners.
“People believe this is a crucial juncture in the history of Sri Lanka,” he said. “This will decide Sri Lanka’s future — its stability, its prospects for economic progress, reconciliation. All will be decided in this election.”
But Eran Wickramaratne, an opposition member of Parliament and a key opposition campaign strategist, said that over the last several days, people in Mr. Rajapaksa’s administration had had conversations with their opponents about preparing for a peaceful transition of power.
“President Rajapaksa is a very seasoned and mature politician; he has seen many transitions previously where he has gone into government or gone out of government,” he said. “They are dealing with very seasoned politicians on both sides. I think this can be handled in a mature way.”
There is, indeed, little history of unrest around elections in Sri Lanka. But Mr. Rajapaksa had much at stake: His prospects were linked to those of his relatives, many of whom occupy top government posts and have been accused of corruption by opposition campaigners.
The president has spent years systematically laying the groundwork to extend his rule, changing the Constitution to eliminate term limits and removing a resistant chief justice of the Supreme Court.The president has spent years systematically laying the groundwork to extend his rule, changing the Constitution to eliminate term limits and removing a resistant chief justice of the Supreme Court.
After he declared victory over the long insurgency by the minority Tamil ethnic group in the north in 2009, Mr. Rajapaksa embraced a far grander vision for his governance of the island nation, buoyed by a robust economic expansion and billions of dollars in Chinese loans for modern ports and highways. Supporters took to calling him a modern incarnation of Dutugemunu, a Sinhalese king who defeated Tamil invaders over 2,000 years ago and ushered in a flourishing period of peace.After he declared victory over the long insurgency by the minority Tamil ethnic group in the north in 2009, Mr. Rajapaksa embraced a far grander vision for his governance of the island nation, buoyed by a robust economic expansion and billions of dollars in Chinese loans for modern ports and highways. Supporters took to calling him a modern incarnation of Dutugemunu, a Sinhalese king who defeated Tamil invaders over 2,000 years ago and ushered in a flourishing period of peace.
As they left polling places on Thursday morning, voters said they were balancing Mr. Rajapaksa’s successes against grievances that have built up during his second term. Despite Sri Lanka’s high growth rates, there are widespread complaints about the rising cost of living, driven by the cost of fuel and other imports.As they left polling places on Thursday morning, voters said they were balancing Mr. Rajapaksa’s successes against grievances that have built up during his second term. Despite Sri Lanka’s high growth rates, there are widespread complaints about the rising cost of living, driven by the cost of fuel and other imports.
“The defeat of terrorism had to be achieved, and the whole country was deeply grateful to President Rajapaksa,” Mohan Perera, 62, a scientist from the dominant Sinhalese ethnic group, said after voting in a well-off central district of Colombo. “If they had managed the economy better after the war, I think he would have been unshakable. But much of the good will he got after the war has been squandered.”“The defeat of terrorism had to be achieved, and the whole country was deeply grateful to President Rajapaksa,” Mohan Perera, 62, a scientist from the dominant Sinhalese ethnic group, said after voting in a well-off central district of Colombo. “If they had managed the economy better after the war, I think he would have been unshakable. But much of the good will he got after the war has been squandered.”
Some who said they had voted for the president expressed fear that a change of government would knock Sri Lanka off its trajectory of economic growth. Piyaratne Jayasena, 62, a retired government banker from the working-class Colombo suburb of Maharagama, said Mr. Rajapaksa served as the guarantor of Sri Lanka’s sovereignty, alluding to Western pressure over reports of human rights violations by the army during the civil war. It remains uncertain what policy changes will follow, since those who rallied around Mr. Sirisena Buddhist nationalists, Marxists and center-right politicians, among others were united by little but their alienation from the president, said Sasha Riser-Kositsky, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy in New York.
“In this election we have thought first about the country,” he said. “We must first of all have a country left. We have to know it is secure from foreign interference.”
It remains uncertain what policy changes will follow, since those who rallied around Mr. Sirisena — Buddhist nationalists, Marxists and center-right politicians, among others — were united by little but their alienation from the president, said Sasha Riser-Kositsky, an analyst with the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy based in New York. Mr. Sirisena has promised to amend the Constitution and return Sri Lanka to a full parliamentary system. If that happens, Mr. Riser-Kositsky said, “there is every reason to believe they will go back to the kind of bickering we’ve seen for the last couple of decades.”
Still, that prospect has proved far less important in this election than the accumulation of anger toward Mr. Rajapaksa and his family.
“What it turns out to be is a referendum on Rajapaksa,” Mr. Riser-Kositsky said. “Really, what the voters care about is Rajapaksa, yes or no.”
During the waning days of the campaign, Mr. Rajapaksa promised changes if he won a third term, among them a revamping of the Constitution and an internal investigation into reported human rights violations by Sri Lankan troops during the civil war. He also warned voters that Mr. Sirisena and his coalition were untested.
“The devil you know is better than the unknown angel,” he told an audience in the northern city of Jaffna. “I am the known devil, so please vote for me.”