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Something fun is happening in Vermont today Something fun happened today in Vermont
(about 3 hours later)
Update 10:58 a.m.: Shumlin has won reelection, earning 110 votes to Milne's 69. That means Shumlin lost the votes of at least 13 Democrats and/or Progressives in the staet legislature. Of course, it's a secret ballot, so we'll never know. Update 10:58 a.m.: Shumlin has won reelection, earning 110 votes to Milne's 69. That means Shumlin lost the votes of at least 13 Democrats and/or Progressives in the state legislature. Of course, it's a secret ballot, so we'll never know.
The original post follows.The original post follows.
Did you know the 2014 election isn't over? Not quite yet.Did you know the 2014 election isn't over? Not quite yet.
Vermont, you see, has yet to pick its governor. Yes, The Fix and everyone else have been chalking this one up to the Democrats for two months now, but it's technically not over yet. Not until Thursday.Vermont, you see, has yet to pick its governor. Yes, The Fix and everyone else have been chalking this one up to the Democrats for two months now, but it's technically not over yet. Not until Thursday.
Here's what's going on: Vermont law dictates that any statewide non-federal race -- i.e. governor, lieutenant governor, treasurer -- in which no candidate gets a majority of the vote must be decided by the state legislature. And despite little indication that he would face a close race, Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) edged Republican Scott Milne, 46.4 percent to 45.1 percent, in November. That's well shy of 50 percent.Here's what's going on: Vermont law dictates that any statewide non-federal race -- i.e. governor, lieutenant governor, treasurer -- in which no candidate gets a majority of the vote must be decided by the state legislature. And despite little indication that he would face a close race, Gov. Peter Shumlin (D) edged Republican Scott Milne, 46.4 percent to 45.1 percent, in November. That's well shy of 50 percent.
So they call in the legislature, which will decide its governor for the 24th time in state history. (That's less amazing when you consider Vermont has two-year terms and has thus had 81 different governors. Pennsylvania, by contrast, has had just 47.)So they call in the legislature, which will decide its governor for the 24th time in state history. (That's less amazing when you consider Vermont has two-year terms and has thus had 81 different governors. Pennsylvania, by contrast, has had just 47.)
So the 180 members of the state legislature -- 150 House members and 30 senators -- on Thursday will pick between Shumlin and Milne, with a majority of the 180 votes winning.So the 180 members of the state legislature -- 150 House members and 30 senators -- on Thursday will pick between Shumlin and Milne, with a majority of the 180 votes winning.
Shumlin, of course, has a few things working for him.Shumlin, of course, has a few things working for him.
1) He's a Democrat.1) He's a Democrat.
Vermont is a deep-blue state, and the state legislature has twice as many Democrats (116) as Republicans (52), along with seven members of the "Vermont Progressive Party" whose position on the left-right political continuum are probably pretty obvious. In other words, Shumlin would have to lose the votes of at least 33 Democrats and Progressives to lose reelection.Vermont is a deep-blue state, and the state legislature has twice as many Democrats (116) as Republicans (52), along with seven members of the "Vermont Progressive Party" whose position on the left-right political continuum are probably pretty obvious. In other words, Shumlin would have to lose the votes of at least 33 Democrats and Progressives to lose reelection.
2) The legislature has almost never picked the second-place finisher.2) The legislature has almost never picked the second-place finisher.
In fact, the last time was 1853, according to Governing. So basically, the quirky law has almost never actually mattered. When Shumlin finished second to Republican Brian Dubie in the 2002 lieutenant governor's race, the state legislature picked the Republican. And when Shumlin edged Dubie but finished just under 50 percent in the 2010 governor's race, the legislature picked the Democrat.In fact, the last time was 1853, according to Governing. So basically, the quirky law has almost never actually mattered. When Shumlin finished second to Republican Brian Dubie in the 2002 lieutenant governor's race, the state legislature picked the Republican. And when Shumlin edged Dubie but finished just under 50 percent in the 2010 governor's race, the legislature picked the Democrat.
(We know what you're thinking. What's the point of the law, then? Well, a certain Gov. Shumlin agrees with you. He wants the threshold for victory reduced from 50 percent to 40 percent.)(We know what you're thinking. What's the point of the law, then? Well, a certain Gov. Shumlin agrees with you. He wants the threshold for victory reduced from 50 percent to 40 percent.)
Another standard practice is for the second-place finisher to concede before the legislature even votes. But Milne isn't conceding. He posted a nine-minute-long video on Tuesday asking for the state legislature to vote him in.Another standard practice is for the second-place finisher to concede before the legislature even votes. But Milne isn't conceding. He posted a nine-minute-long video on Tuesday asking for the state legislature to vote him in.
He is also urging legislators, contrary to standard practice, to vote for the candidate who won their home districts. As the Burlington Free-Press notes, though, that would only get him to a 90-90 tie (Update: Phil Kerpen says Milne actually won 91 districts, versus 89 for Shumlin). So even one defector could render that strategy moot.He is also urging legislators, contrary to standard practice, to vote for the candidate who won their home districts. As the Burlington Free-Press notes, though, that would only get him to a 90-90 tie (Update: Phil Kerpen says Milne actually won 91 districts, versus 89 for Shumlin). So even one defector could render that strategy moot.
No, Milne's lone saving grace in all this could be the fact that it's a secret ballot. So if there's a bunch of Democrats who are mad enough at Shumlin to actually elect a Republican governor, he might have a chance.No, Milne's lone saving grace in all this could be the fact that it's a secret ballot. So if there's a bunch of Democrats who are mad enough at Shumlin to actually elect a Republican governor, he might have a chance.
But probably not.But probably not.
The vote is just after 10 a.m Eastern, with the winner being sworn in as the next governor just hours later, at 1:30 p.m.The vote is just after 10 a.m Eastern, with the winner being sworn in as the next governor just hours later, at 1:30 p.m.