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A Moment of Optimism on Sudan Peace Fades as New Talks Approach A Moment of Optimism on Sudan Peace Fades as New Talks Approach
(35 minutes later)
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Up and down the stairs of the five-star Radisson Blue Hotel, they moved from one meeting to another. Some wore suits, some came in traditional white clothing with and turbans, some dressed casually. One rebel leader wore a baseball cap. ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia — Up and down the stairs of the five-star Radisson Blue Hotel, they moved from one meeting to another. Some wore suits, some came in traditional white clothing with turbans, some dressed casually. One rebel leader wore a baseball cap.
In a rarity, anyone who is anyone in Sudanese politics — government officials, rebels, politicians, activists and international observers — was in one place, to talk peace.In a rarity, anyone who is anyone in Sudanese politics — government officials, rebels, politicians, activists and international observers — was in one place, to talk peace.
For a moment, it seemed like the momentum in this country — fractured by chronic instability in Darfur, violence in provinces like South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and simmering political tensions in the capital, Khartoum — was finally shifting.For a moment, it seemed like the momentum in this country — fractured by chronic instability in Darfur, violence in provinces like South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and simmering political tensions in the capital, Khartoum — was finally shifting.
But for all the initial optimism surrounding this round of peace talks, which ended here in the Ethiopian capital in December, Sudan’s clashing politicians and rebels failed to reach an agreement. Talks are supposed to resume later this month.But for all the initial optimism surrounding this round of peace talks, which ended here in the Ethiopian capital in December, Sudan’s clashing politicians and rebels failed to reach an agreement. Talks are supposed to resume later this month.
“It is therefore deeply disappointing that the recent peace talks in Addis Ababa ended without agreement,” said a joint statement by the United States, Britain and Norway. “We call on all parties to return.”“It is therefore deeply disappointing that the recent peace talks in Addis Ababa ended without agreement,” said a joint statement by the United States, Britain and Norway. “We call on all parties to return.”
So how did the momentum evaporate so quickly? And what are the chances of regaining it?So how did the momentum evaporate so quickly? And what are the chances of regaining it?
The prospects for peace had been building for months. In a notable speech in early 2013, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir called on the opposition and rebels from across the country to engage in a national dialogue. His call for reconciliation came only a few months after deadly anti-government protests in the capital, a split in the governing party and a major cabinet shuffle.The prospects for peace had been building for months. In a notable speech in early 2013, President Omar Hassan al-Bashir called on the opposition and rebels from across the country to engage in a national dialogue. His call for reconciliation came only a few months after deadly anti-government protests in the capital, a split in the governing party and a major cabinet shuffle.
Along with mounting economic pressures, it seemed that the government was willing to give ground for the sake of stability.Along with mounting economic pressures, it seemed that the government was willing to give ground for the sake of stability.
Similarly, the rebels, who form an alliance known as the Sudanese Revolutionary Front, came to the talks under a new political reality. The regional dynamics that once bolstered them have shifted. With the fall of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya and a civil war consuming South Sudan, the rebels no longer seemed as able to garner support from neighbors.Similarly, the rebels, who form an alliance known as the Sudanese Revolutionary Front, came to the talks under a new political reality. The regional dynamics that once bolstered them have shifted. With the fall of Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi in Libya and a civil war consuming South Sudan, the rebels no longer seemed as able to garner support from neighbors.
Yet some analysts question whether the divided Sudanese government can, or even really wants to, reach a deal right now.Yet some analysts question whether the divided Sudanese government can, or even really wants to, reach a deal right now.
“The question is whether the government of Sudan, comprised of the ruling National Congress Party, the military and National Security under President Bashir, is cohesive to make the bold steps, which involve politically difficult sacrifices,” said Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation.“The question is whether the government of Sudan, comprised of the ruling National Congress Party, the military and National Security under President Bashir, is cohesive to make the bold steps, which involve politically difficult sacrifices,” said Alex de Waal, executive director of the World Peace Foundation.
With the end of the rainy season, fighting is expected to resume. Commanders in the Sudanese Army still believe that a military victory over the rebels is possible, and they seem to want to delay negotiations until further gains can be made.With the end of the rainy season, fighting is expected to resume. Commanders in the Sudanese Army still believe that a military victory over the rebels is possible, and they seem to want to delay negotiations until further gains can be made.
Another problem is the dizzying number of competing interests in a country awash in rebel movements.Another problem is the dizzying number of competing interests in a country awash in rebel movements.
In the provinces of Blue Nile and South Kordofan, the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement-North, once part of the party that now governs the nation of South Sudan, has been fighting an insurgency since 2011.In the provinces of Blue Nile and South Kordofan, the Sudanese Peoples Liberation Movement-North, once part of the party that now governs the nation of South Sudan, has been fighting an insurgency since 2011.
In Darfur, the broad patchwork of fighters has made for a conflict that is as convoluted as it is intractable.In Darfur, the broad patchwork of fighters has made for a conflict that is as convoluted as it is intractable.
“Everyone is wearing khaki; we can’t tell the difference,” said Awatif Abdel-Rahman, who has been living in a displaced persons camp in the Darfur region of Sudan for more than 10 years. “The Rapid Response Forces attack people and there are so many rebel movements we can’t remember their names anymore,” referring to the mix of government forces and armed groups in Darfur.“Everyone is wearing khaki; we can’t tell the difference,” said Awatif Abdel-Rahman, who has been living in a displaced persons camp in the Darfur region of Sudan for more than 10 years. “The Rapid Response Forces attack people and there are so many rebel movements we can’t remember their names anymore,” referring to the mix of government forces and armed groups in Darfur.
The rebels, particularly the Darfur groups, have little unity, and it is not clear how big their constituencies are, or how much military power they have. Each side seems to be waiting for better negotiating positions.The rebels, particularly the Darfur groups, have little unity, and it is not clear how big their constituencies are, or how much military power they have. Each side seems to be waiting for better negotiating positions.
Rebel groups in Darfur have been fighting the central government since 2003. Two of them, the Justice and Equality Movement and the Minni Minnawi faction of the Sudanese Liberation Movement, attended the talks. A third group, the Nour faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement, refused to attend.Rebel groups in Darfur have been fighting the central government since 2003. Two of them, the Justice and Equality Movement and the Minni Minnawi faction of the Sudanese Liberation Movement, attended the talks. A third group, the Nour faction of the Sudan Liberation Movement, refused to attend.
A fourth group, the Liberation and Justice Movement, signed a peace agreement with the Sudanese government in 2011, an agreement rejected by the other Darfur rebel groups.A fourth group, the Liberation and Justice Movement, signed a peace agreement with the Sudanese government in 2011, an agreement rejected by the other Darfur rebel groups.
The Sudanese government has refused to negotiate with all the rebels across the country as one block, citing previous agreements with rebel factions as binding.The Sudanese government has refused to negotiate with all the rebels across the country as one block, citing previous agreements with rebel factions as binding.
Many analysts believe that a more holistic approach to Sudan’s problems, including better governance and a more representative democracy on a national scale, is the only way forward.Many analysts believe that a more holistic approach to Sudan’s problems, including better governance and a more representative democracy on a national scale, is the only way forward.
In an effort to synchronize peace efforts, the African Union’s mediation team, headed by Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s former president, arranged for what it described as negotiations with “one process, two tracks.” In theory, that is to be followed by a constitutional overhaul and free elections.In an effort to synchronize peace efforts, the African Union’s mediation team, headed by Thabo Mbeki, South Africa’s former president, arranged for what it described as negotiations with “one process, two tracks.” In theory, that is to be followed by a constitutional overhaul and free elections.
On the patio of the hotel in Ethiopia last month, attendees waited for news from the negotiators while sipping cappuccinos. The mood at the talks shifted daily from cautious optimism to near collapse. Toward the end, the negotiating parties started pointing fingers, accusing one another other of not being serious about talks.On the patio of the hotel in Ethiopia last month, attendees waited for news from the negotiators while sipping cappuccinos. The mood at the talks shifted daily from cautious optimism to near collapse. Toward the end, the negotiating parties started pointing fingers, accusing one another other of not being serious about talks.
Ibrahim Ghandour, a Sudanese government negotiator, attributed the failure of the talks to the rebels “being held hostage” to their alliances with one another.Ibrahim Ghandour, a Sudanese government negotiator, attributed the failure of the talks to the rebels “being held hostage” to their alliances with one another.
Yasser Arman, a negotiator with the SPLM-N, said the government was not able to make firm decisions.Yasser Arman, a negotiator with the SPLM-N, said the government was not able to make firm decisions.
“Outstanding issues have been identified and they need decisions,” he said.“Outstanding issues have been identified and they need decisions,” he said.
The government said it did not want to revisit issues relating to Darfur that had already agreed upon with one of the groups in 2011.The government said it did not want to revisit issues relating to Darfur that had already agreed upon with one of the groups in 2011.
“Perhaps a new faction will come and say an agreement in Addis Ababa does not concern us and we start all over again,” said Amin Hassan Omar, a government negotiator.“Perhaps a new faction will come and say an agreement in Addis Ababa does not concern us and we start all over again,” said Amin Hassan Omar, a government negotiator.
Some have called for greater international involvement in the negotiations.Some have called for greater international involvement in the negotiations.
In what some see as a breakthrough, Sudan’s rebels, opposition parties and civil society groups signed a declaration late last year, known as the Sudan Call, uniting efforts to push for change in Sudan, but the impact of the declaration remains to be seen.In what some see as a breakthrough, Sudan’s rebels, opposition parties and civil society groups signed a declaration late last year, known as the Sudan Call, uniting efforts to push for change in Sudan, but the impact of the declaration remains to be seen.
“It has unified the opposition,” said Mahjoub Mohamed Salih, editor in chief of Al-Ayam newspaper in Khartoum. “But it remains to be seen how it will be used and what political power it will bring.”“It has unified the opposition,” said Mahjoub Mohamed Salih, editor in chief of Al-Ayam newspaper in Khartoum. “But it remains to be seen how it will be used and what political power it will bring.”
Talks are to resume this month, but Mr. Salih is not holding his breath.Talks are to resume this month, but Mr. Salih is not holding his breath.
“You have to be either a prophet or fool to predict what will happen in Sudan,” he said.“You have to be either a prophet or fool to predict what will happen in Sudan,” he said.
For many Sudanese, though, the urgency is clear.For many Sudanese, though, the urgency is clear.
“There needs to be compromises from all sides for the sake of the people,” said Hamid Hussein, 45, a used-books seller in downtown Khartoum. He is originally from South Kordofan, where fighting continues.“There needs to be compromises from all sides for the sake of the people,” said Hamid Hussein, 45, a used-books seller in downtown Khartoum. He is originally from South Kordofan, where fighting continues.
“We are the ones who pay the price of war,” he said.“We are the ones who pay the price of war,” he said.