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Politicians always like to think that their speeches make the political weather. This belief explains why, in most modern democracies, politicians conventionally devote so much time and sweat to their big set-piece orations. Nevertheless, many observers these days are more sceptical. True, big speeches need to be made, and they need to be competent. But the evidence of the opinion polls often suggests that big speeches are more important for party morale – and for the morale of their opponents – than in changing the wider mood. More often than not, big speeches actually have a very limited impact on the voters.Politicians always like to think that their speeches make the political weather. This belief explains why, in most modern democracies, politicians conventionally devote so much time and sweat to their big set-piece orations. Nevertheless, many observers these days are more sceptical. True, big speeches need to be made, and they need to be competent. But the evidence of the opinion polls often suggests that big speeches are more important for party morale – and for the morale of their opponents – than in changing the wider mood. More often than not, big speeches actually have a very limited impact on the voters.
An American president traditionally has no bigger platform than the annual State of the Union address, which Barack Obama will deliver on Tuesday night in Washington. In time-honoured fashion, Mr Obama’s speechwriters will have been honing the draft for many weeks. As usual, the speech will be carried on all the TV networks and will be intensively parsed and analysed afterwards. The occasion will involve all the usual Capitol Hill choreography and razzmatazz.An American president traditionally has no bigger platform than the annual State of the Union address, which Barack Obama will deliver on Tuesday night in Washington. In time-honoured fashion, Mr Obama’s speechwriters will have been honing the draft for many weeks. As usual, the speech will be carried on all the TV networks and will be intensively parsed and analysed afterwards. The occasion will involve all the usual Capitol Hill choreography and razzmatazz.
But a watershed seems to have been crossed since the midterm elections two months ago. Mr Obama seems not to be banking on Tuesday’s speech to transform his standing in the way he might have wanted to do in the past. Instead he looks to have his eyes on the 2016 election and the post-Obama political battle. If this is indeed his approach, it is both realistic and right.But a watershed seems to have been crossed since the midterm elections two months ago. Mr Obama seems not to be banking on Tuesday’s speech to transform his standing in the way he might have wanted to do in the past. Instead he looks to have his eyes on the 2016 election and the post-Obama political battle. If this is indeed his approach, it is both realistic and right.
When he was first elected in 2008, Mr Obama took relations with Congress very seriously. He tried to forge consensus with Republicans, notably on healthcare. He was repeatedly rebuffed on a range of issues. Last November Americans elected a wholly Republican Congress for the first time in Mr Obama’s presidency. Facing two years of gridlock, he has even less hope now of crafting the big legislative deals that eluded him in apparently more favourable times.When he was first elected in 2008, Mr Obama took relations with Congress very seriously. He tried to forge consensus with Republicans, notably on healthcare. He was repeatedly rebuffed on a range of issues. Last November Americans elected a wholly Republican Congress for the first time in Mr Obama’s presidency. Facing two years of gridlock, he has even less hope now of crafting the big legislative deals that eluded him in apparently more favourable times.
So in recent weeks the administration has started to do politics rather differently from in the past. The president has taken executive action on issues including relations with Cuba, an overhaul of US immigration and deportation practice, and a climate-change deal with China. Last week, the White House even went public with several of the key economic ideas in Tuesday’s speech. We now know that Mr Obama will on Tuesday urge Congress to put inequality at the centre of the stage, raising taxes on the richest in order to finance tax cuts for middle-income Americans whose wages have stagnated since the financial crisis of 2008.So in recent weeks the administration has started to do politics rather differently from in the past. The president has taken executive action on issues including relations with Cuba, an overhaul of US immigration and deportation practice, and a climate-change deal with China. Last week, the White House even went public with several of the key economic ideas in Tuesday’s speech. We now know that Mr Obama will on Tuesday urge Congress to put inequality at the centre of the stage, raising taxes on the richest in order to finance tax cuts for middle-income Americans whose wages have stagnated since the financial crisis of 2008.
In one sense, Mr Obama is simply making the best of a bad job. His chances of getting significant legislation through Congress in the next two years are close to zero. If he wants to avoid premature lame-duck status, he must therefore use the powers that a president possesses, including executive action and the power to persuade. It is inconceivable, in its current mood, that the new Congress will actually embrace his tax proposals. But Tuesday’s speech at least gives Mr Obama the platform to outflank the many senior Republicans who have begun to talk, albeit with very vague prescriptions, about long-term US wage stagnation. By doing this he helps to frame more sharply one of the largest issues that will dominate the 2016 presidential contest.In one sense, Mr Obama is simply making the best of a bad job. His chances of getting significant legislation through Congress in the next two years are close to zero. If he wants to avoid premature lame-duck status, he must therefore use the powers that a president possesses, including executive action and the power to persuade. It is inconceivable, in its current mood, that the new Congress will actually embrace his tax proposals. But Tuesday’s speech at least gives Mr Obama the platform to outflank the many senior Republicans who have begun to talk, albeit with very vague prescriptions, about long-term US wage stagnation. By doing this he helps to frame more sharply one of the largest issues that will dominate the 2016 presidential contest.
It would be wrong, morally as well as politically, to pretend that this State of the Union speech is without any importance at all. America needs to hear its president talk in primetime about issues such as immigration, race and climate change, even though Congress has no intention of supporting the president on any of them. Mr Obama also has a good story to tell in the shape of the economic growth rate, which rose to 5% at the end of 2014, and the fall in the unemployment rate, now at 5.8% after hitting 10% in 2009. Yet the big debate in America in 2016, as in Britain’s election this year, will be about tough measures to reverse rising levels of inequality. This time next year, Mr Obama’s political leverage will be diminishing fast in the manner so familiar from recent two-term presidencies. Tuesday night is therefore Mr Obama’s last big chance to use a major address to shape the new American political conversation.It would be wrong, morally as well as politically, to pretend that this State of the Union speech is without any importance at all. America needs to hear its president talk in primetime about issues such as immigration, race and climate change, even though Congress has no intention of supporting the president on any of them. Mr Obama also has a good story to tell in the shape of the economic growth rate, which rose to 5% at the end of 2014, and the fall in the unemployment rate, now at 5.8% after hitting 10% in 2009. Yet the big debate in America in 2016, as in Britain’s election this year, will be about tough measures to reverse rising levels of inequality. This time next year, Mr Obama’s political leverage will be diminishing fast in the manner so familiar from recent two-term presidencies. Tuesday night is therefore Mr Obama’s last big chance to use a major address to shape the new American political conversation.